One of the most worrisome aspects of a Bruce Arians-Tom Brady schematic marriage in Tampa Bay was if the former’s seldom usage of play-action would negatively impact the latter’s success given how good Brady was at it in New England.

According to The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia, the Bucs utilized play-action at the fifth-lowest rate in the entire NFL last season, despite the fact that they were excellent at it when they did. Brady’s Patriots were 17th in play-action rate last season, and throughout his career he’s been one of the league’s more deadly play-action passers.

So would the Bucs alter their approach and increase their play-action usage in 2020, with Brady at the helm? Arians’ offenses have consistently been near the bottom of the league in play-action rate, and in 2020 not much has changed. Tampa Bay ranks 30th in the NFL in play-action rate, despite the fact that they have once again been exceptional at it.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians and QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

“Tom has been a great play-action guy for the last few years,” Arians said. “Play-action is only good if you’re running the ball. I think we’ve been running it adequately – better than we have in the past, so it should set up more and more play-action.”

Over the years Arians has consistently expressed similar sentiments about the importance of play-action, while simultaneously failing to incorporate it heavily into his offense. One of the reasons for that is that Arians’ offenses have not typically run the ball well, and he is operating under a false pretense that ground game success is required to have success off play-action.

It’s not.

According to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin, studies show that the success of play-action isn’t dependent on the success of the team’s run game prior to those play-action passes. Logically, this is pretty simple to understand. Linebackers must respect their reads in the run game, regardless of whether they succeeded on the play before or not, and that will delay their drop into coverage. Defensive linemen must respect their run reads against non-pass setting opposing offensive linemen, otherwise the run game will become successful again very quickly.

Players are coached to follow rules and reads at each position, and those don’t get thrown out the window because the opponent had a couple rough drives running the football. Play-action’s ability to freeze certain players from reacting quickly to their coverage or pass rush assignments, the execution of which would make life more difficult for the offense to be successful, is an intrinsic value of play-action usage that isn’t dependent on the success of the run game in order to work.

Former Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

Even if Arians hasn’t seen or acknowledged the study’s findings, he can simply look at this own offenses over the years, especially in 2019, to understand why this principle is true. Last year the Bucs were one of the worst rushing teams in the entire NFL, from an efficiency and a splash play perspective. Simply put, their run game wasn’t moving the needle against any defense, yet their play-action success was outstanding, ranking fourth in the entire league in Expected Points Added.

This year, things have looked pretty similar to last season, both in terms of the Bucs usage of play-action and their ability to hit splash plays off of it. In Week 1, several of their biggest plays came off of play-action, including the 29-yard pass to Chris Godwin on their first scoring drive. Brady’s 9-yard touchdown pass to O.J. Howard, his 23-yard third down conversion to Chris Godwin and a 28-yard defensive pass interference gain off a dime to Scotty Miller were all additional huge plays for the Bucs off play-action in a loss to the New Orleans Saints.

After six play-action drop-backs in Week 1, Brady matched that number in Week 2, but with less effectiveness on paper. Brady completed just two of his six play-action pass attempts in Week 2, but a closer look at the numbers tells a more favorable story. Of Brady’s four play-action misses in the game, there was a dropped 21-yard touchdown by Miller in the first quarter and a Mike Evans slip/drop that would have been good for 16 yards. The opportunities were once again there for splash plays off of play-action, Tampa Bay just didn’t execute as well as the week before.

In Week 3, the Bucs were again soaring on play-action passes, with Brady hitting a 33-yard pinpoint pass to Howard down the right sideline in the first half, before coming back in the second half with a 30-yard back-shoulder throw to Godwin on first down.

Yes, two of the Bucs’ three interceptions this season have also come off of play-action, but their lack of success had nothing to do with the play call. On Brady’s interception to Evans against the Saints, the receiver simply ran the wrong route resulting in a miscommunication. On the interception against the Panthers last week, Brady overthrew a wide open Rob Gronkowski while also absorbing some pressure on a missed protection.

Those plays might have ended negatively, but the process of utilizing play-action has been proven to be a good one for all NFL teams, especially the Buccaneers. It has been a huge catalyst for some of the team’s biggest plays this season, and will continue to be due to the stress it puts on a defense.

Bucs OC Byron Leftwich and QB Tom Brady – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

So why not use play-action more? It’s a great question, and one that Arians and offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich should be asking themselves this week. Tampa Bay has called play-action passes almost exclusively on first downs, but what about if they started to utilize the strategy on second down too? Right now, six play-action passes a game is far too few given how successful the strategy has been in an 18-play sample size (and all of last season).

Don’t wait for the run game to kick into gear because that is simply unlikely to happen for this Bucs team (more on that at a later date). Tampa Bay is already moving towards a more pass-heavy, early down approach over the past three weeks, so incorporating more play-action passes into their attack should be a seamless transition moving forward.