The Browns, just like every offense, has tells. Some are schematic and some are just habits. Either way, the job the week of a game is to find them before Sunday and then figure out whether the defense on the other side is built to take advantage. It’s an incredibly small sample size, but I endeavored to see what kind of tells the Browns showed in Week 1. This isn’t a player matchup deep dive. For that, please check out the fantastic work by Bailey Adams here.
The Browns on First Down
The Browns had a successful first down offense last week. Successful, but not explosive. Running on first down kept the ball out of Deshaun Watson’s hands and led to second-and-manageable. They used 21 personnel at one of the highest clips in the league. They also ran counter at a league leading rate.
They ran out of shotgun at an inverted rate, where the league passes out of shotgun at an almost 70% clip while Cleveland does so at a 27% rate. If they go shotgun, the Bucs should drop a seventh man in the box. But if the Browns go under center on first down, Todd Bowles should run blitz. Cleveland struggled to pass protect on the under-center play action snaps, with Cover 4 behind it. Arizona ran a version of this against the Chargers last week.
— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) September 19, 2026
The Browns got the same productivity out of their run game when facing a light box (six defenders) as a neutral one (seven defenders). The Bucs can use this to their advantage by running more two-high shells against 11 personnel, but I’d rather them stick with neutral or even heavy boxes and dare Watson to be even an average quarterback, which I don’t think he is.
Browns on Second Down
This is where Todd Bowles can lean into his Cover 3 if Tampa Bay can push Cleveland into second-and-medium or longer. But Watson and the Browns struggled with two-high structures even more. Cover 6 and Cover 4 could be strong changeups for this matchup, especially from a post-snap rotation. The Jaguars were able to run these coverages successfully last week and it could help the Bucs confuse Watson while simultaneously operate as a changeup from their own tendencies.
Browns on Third Down
The Browns struggled on third down last week trying to beat man coverage.
— Josh Queipo (@JoshQueipo_NFL) September 19, 2026
Tampa Bay’s corners aren’t as strong in man coverage, so the Bucs should look to alternative avenues. This is where their Cover 3 behind a fire zone can be most effective.
Josh Queipo joined the Pewter Report team in 2022, specializing in salary cap analysis and film study. In addition to his official role with the website and podcast, he has an unofficial role as the Pewter Report team’s beaming light of positivity and jokes. A staunch proponent of the forward pass, he is a father to two amazing children and loves sushi, brisket, steak and bacon, though the order changes depending on the day. He graduated from the University of South Florida in 2008 with a degree in finance.
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