FAB 2. The Latest On Bucs’ Evaluation Of Winston

“What’s the latest on Jameis Winston?”

“Are the Bucs going to re-sign him?”

“Is Tampa Bay going to use the franchise tag on Winston?”

“Are the Bucs going to pursue another QB?”

I’m getting inundated with questions about Winston right now. So is PewterReport.com’s Mark Cook. I’m sure it’s the same thing for The Tampa Bay Times’ Rick Stroud, ESPN’s Jenna Laine and The Athletic’s Greg Auman.

It’s only natural because this is the question of Tampa Bay’s offseason, and as Bucs beat writers it’s our job to know the answers. But this offseason, we don’t know what’s going to happen with Winston and the Bucs. At least not yet.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

As expected, Bucs general manager Jason Licht and head coach Bruce Arians are keeping their evaluation very close to the vest.

Licht did not address the media at either the East-West Shrine Game or the Senior Bowl, and Arians hasn’t spoken publicly since his post-game press conference after the loss to Atlanta, and then again the day after in a post-season press conference on December 30. Arians fielded a bunch of questions about Winston during those two pressers, and that’s all we really have to go on.

We at PewterReport.com have gleaned a little bit more information about the situation since then, but what Arians said – and didn’t say – is actually quite telling when you go back and watch the press conferences as I recently did. So let’s post the questions posed to Arians about Winston from those pressers and his answers (in bold below), and our interpretation of what Arians might mean.

Arians’ Post-Game Press Conference

(On the difficulty of evaluating the future of Winston)
“That’s the thing, there’s so much good. There’s so much good and there’s so much outright terrible. So, we have to weigh that and see what happens.”

Arians said “good.” He didn’t say “great” or “awesome,” but he said “outright terrible” and not “bad.” Notice the difference?

(On if Winston played well enough to return next season)
“Got to wait and see.”

That’s self-explanatory, as the Bucs have yet to offer Winston a contract extension.

(On his feeling of Winston’s offseason evaluation)
“We’ll just go back and look at the entire season like we do with everybody and [see] how many [interceptions] were him and how many were somebody else. There’s a lot more that goes into it than interceptions. But, it will be a full evaluation like we do everyone.”

PewterReport.com’s Trevor Sikkema did his own evaluation of Winston’s INTs and said that 16 or 17 interceptions were Winston’s fault, which is still a lot. One league source told me at the Senior Bowl that his team had Winston with a league-high 15 dropped interceptions. The Bucs surely have their own number and will factor in those, too. There’s no escaping the fact that Winston threw a ton of interceptions – or near interceptions – that were his fault. If the team didn’t think that, they would be in contract negotiations with his agent right now rather than evaluating all the available options in free agency and the draft.

Falcons LB Deion Jones – Photo by: Getty Images

(On if the overtime interception was a bad decision by Winston)
“It sure looked like it. [Tight end Cameron Brate] was covered. He went to his favorite guy, but he was covered.”

Arians certainly didn’t make any excuses for Winston, did he? Did you notice the change in tone from Arians about Winston after this loss?

(On if Winston’s mistakes are “fixable”)
“That’s one of the things I’m going to have to evaluate.”

On December 29, 2019, “the quarterback whisperer” didn’t know if he could fix Winston. Interesting. On February 7, 2020, does he think he can fix him?

(On if he can get past leading the league in giveaways)
“No, because you’re not going anywhere. You’re going home. You’re going home when you lead the league in giveaways. You’re never going to play in the playoffs unless you’re playing for the Steelers in the ‘70s.”

The Bucs are never going to the playoffs with a QB that throws 30 interceptions, and probably not one that throws 16 or 17 INTs, either. In fact, the highest number of interceptions thrown by any playoff quarterback this year was 13, and that was by San Francisco’s Jimmy Garappolo, who threw two in the playoffs. Is Winston capable of throwing 13 or fewer interceptions in 16 games? He’s never done it before.

(On message to team after game)
“It’s a shame. This was a game we talked about all year of us beating us in all three phases, and we did. There wasn’t, ‘Hey, he lost the game. Fire him.’ No, because it was offense, defense, and special teams. We will not beat ourselves next year.”

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Getty Images

The key phrase in this one is “we will not beat ourselves next year.” That means the Bucs’ 2020 focus will be greatly reducing the amount of turnovers. What does that say about a QB that has committed over 100 turnovers since entering the league in 2015?

(On if this was the worst-case scenario for Winston losing a game with a pick-six)
“An overtime loss; giving the ball away for a touchdown. I can’t think of anything worse.”

That comment speaks for itself, doesn’t it?

Arians’ Post-Season Press Conference

(On the decision process for QB Jameis Winston and if it will be a long one)
“I would think in a few weeks, yeah. We’ll have a decision on which way we want to head. Will we let it out? Probably not because you lose your leverage on that one, too. Stay tuned.”

I can report that the Bucs have not reached a decision on Winston yet, and it’s been five weeks since the season ended, which Arians alluded to.

(On if the team will have a decision made by March)
“Maybe. March is a good month.”

With several intriguing quarterbacks poised to hit free agency, including Los Angeles’ Philip Rivers, New Orleans’ Teddy Bridgewater and possibly New England’s Tom Brady among others, the Bucs are doing their due diligence and looking at all of their options and comparing those scenarios against keeping Winston. This decision-making process will likely go into March, as Arians suggested.

(On there being less tolerance for Winston’s mistakes next year if he returns)
“I think you do that every year. You have every position – it’s a performance-based business. If you’re not performing, you get replaced. So, yes, to answer your question, yes.”

Bucs QB Jameis Winston and head coach Bruce Arians – Photo by: Getty Images

If Winston returns in 2020 he will be a short leash and mistakes like interceptions and pick-sixes won’t be tolerated like they were in 2019 during Arians’ first year in Tampa Bay.

(On there being more forgiveness for Winston’s mistakes this season)
“Yes. A big part of it was Blaine [Gabbert] getting hurt. And we had to find out. This is a franchise and we had to find out.”

Again, if Winston returns he will be expected to make fewer mistakes and throw far fewer interceptions.

(On what Arians learned about Winston this year)
“He’s a very bright, hardworking quarterback. He puts his time in.”

This is interesting because of what Arians didn’t say about Winston. This was a softball question, and one where Arians could have really had an expansive response and a much bolder defense about his quarterback. But he didn’t. He didn’t say Winston was a dynamic playmaker or a prolific passer. He didn’t mention Winston leading the league with 5,109 yards or the fact that he threw a franchise-record 33 touchdowns. Interesting – and perhaps foreshadowing.

(On concerns for teaching the offensive system to another quarterback)
“None – none at all. If that’s what it comes to, he’ll be expected to play at the level to win a championship.”

It’s not what Arians said. It was how quickly and deliberately he answered the question. Watch his answer on the video.

(On what Arians needs to evaluate Winston between now and March)
“Everything – every snap, run game, passing game, interceptions, completions. The whole thing.”

As he should.

(On Winston’s decision-making)
“The mechanics improved dramatically. I think everybody talked last year he can’t hit a deep ball and he may be the best in the league [this season]. All those things go into it.”

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Arians didn’t say Winston made bad decisions, but he didn’t say he didn’t, either. Instead, he kind of dodged the question and discussed his improved deep ball and mechanics.

(On if Arians thinks decision-making is a factor)
“I think that and repetitive mistakes. How many of there were those? All those things go into it.”

Arians is going to back and see which bad decisions happened more than once.

(On Arians not being able to fix Jameis Winston’s turnovers)
“I think that’s when you sit down with him and you talk it all over. And all of us – Clyde [Christensen], Byron [Leftwich], myself, Jameis – and look at it, and evaluate it. Is the [5,109 passing yards] still good enough to win a championship or is it the [30 interceptions] and whatever many fumbles losing the championship? So that’s where you go.”

Well, obviously Winston’s 30 interceptions and a handful of fumbles played a big role in preventing the Bucs from making the playoffs. That can’t happen again in Tampa Bay.

(On this team being good enough to win with another quarterback)
“With another quarterback? Oh yeah. We can win with this one [and] we can definitely win with another one too because we’re going to have this defense.”

Again, it was the immediate answer by Arians that stood out. There was no pause for reflection. It was Arians saying that he could win with any quarterback – Winston or someone else. That means Winston isn’t head and shoulders above all quarterbacks that will be available in free agency in Arians’ mind, either.

(On why Jameis Winston’s interceptions were mostly on short passes and if it was a timing issue)
“It’ll be one of the things we evaluate.”

That statement speaks for itself.

(On not being able to help Jameis Winston fix his turnover problem)
“It’s frustrating to see the growth was great, but to see the regression in some areas was very frustrating.”

Bucs QB Jameis Winston – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

Quarterbacks shouldn’t be regressing in their fifth year, especially when it’s in a contract year. But despite the improvement in passing yards and touchdowns, the regression in interceptions is why the Bucs are thinking long and hard about bringing him back.

(On what Arians sees as the options regarding Jameis Winston)
“Free agency – who’s available. What’s behind door number two? That’s the first question. As you evaluate for the draft, that’s another question. Are they better than what you have? And then you evaluate and that’s when you make your decisions.”

This was Arians’ final statement about Winston and the Bucs, and it’s a doozy. It’s a doozy because Arians is being completely transparent about the fact that the Bucs are going to be exploring their options in free agency and the draft at the quarterback position. Winston was given the 2019 season to stake his undeniable claim at Tampa Bay’s QB job for 2020 and beyond, and he clearly didn’t seal the deal with those 30 interceptions and seven pick-sixes.

That’s not to say that Winston won’t return to Tampa Bay. After their evaluation process the Bucs may deem that the grass isn’t greener, and that the devil they know might be better than the devil they don’t and think that Winston might be the best option. Or it might be a case where Winston might be the third-best option behind future Hall of Famers like Brady and Rivers, but if those two QBs opt to go elsewhere all of a sudden Winston becomes No. 1 on their list by the process of elimination.

This interpretation of Arians’ statements as well as some whispers I’ve heard from league sources lead me to believe that it’s a 50-50 chance that Winston returns to Tampa Bay in 2020. That’s the latest.