FAB 3. 5 Things The Bucs Can Learn From The Chiefs

Kansas City beat San Francisco, 31-20, in Super Bowl 54, and it should have come as no surprise. The Chiefs won not due to the fact they were overdue to hoist the Lombardi Trophy – it’s been 50 years since Kansas City last won the Super Bowl – but because they checked all the boxes that Super Bowl champions typically need to check.

Since the Bucs last won the Super Bowl in 2002, the vast majority of the last 18 NFL champions have most or all of the five qualities Kansas City possessed in 2019 – a playmaking quarterback, a high-scoring offense, winning the turnover battle, the ability to win close games and have a pass rush. Let’s take a close look at these five marks that Super Bowl champions typically possess and see how the Bucs fare in those areas entering the 2020 campaign.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes – Photo by: Getty Images

HAVE A PLAYMAKING QB
Patrick Mahomes is one of the best two quarterbacks in the league – the other being Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, who just unanimously won the NFL MVP award. Mahomes won the NFL MVP award during his second year in the league in 2018 – his first season as the Chiefs starter. More importantly, Mahomes just won the Super Bowl MVP, and became the 29th quarterback in 54 Super Bowls to win that honor.

More quarterbacks have been named the Super Bowl MVP than any other position, so having a stellar QB is typically a prerequisite – as Mahomes beat Jimmy Garoppolo on Sunday the same way Peyton Manning beat Rex Grossman in Miami well over a decade ago. How about the Bucs?

The Bucs are currently deciding whether or not 26-year old Jameis Winston has the ability to win a Super Bowl, and what’s complicating that evaluation is the fact that he hasn’t even made it to the playoffs yet in his first five years in the league. Other more experienced, veteran options might exist in free agency as New England’s Tom Brady and Los Angeles’ Philip Rivers could be available. The 42-year old Brady is the greatest quarterback in the history of the league and winner of an NFL-record six Super Bowls, while the 38-year old Rivers has been to 11 playoff games and is the sixth-leading passer in NFL history.

THE ABILITY TO SCORE LOTS OF POINTS
The average points scored by the Super Bowl victor since the Bucs won during the 2002 season is 29.4 points. There are a few exceptions, such as New England’s 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams two years ago, but generally speaking, if a team wants to win the Lombardi Trophy, it needs to be able to light up the scoreboard.

Last 18 Super Bowl Scores
Super Bowl LIV – Chiefs 31, 49ers 20
Super Bowl LIII – Patriots 13, Rams 3
Super Bowl LII – Eagles 41, Patriots 33
Super Bowl LI – Patriots 34, Falcons 28 (OT)
Super Bowl 50 – Broncos 24, Panthers 10
Super Bowl XLIX – Patriots 28, Seahawks 24
Super Bowl XLVIII – Seahawks 43, Broncos 8
Super Bowl XLVII – Ravens 34, 49ers 31
Super Bowl XLVI – Giants 21, Patriots 17
Super Bowl XLV – Packers 31, Steelers 25
Super Bowl XLIV – Saints 31, Colts 17
Super Bowl XLIII – Steelers 27, Cardinals 23
Super Bowl XLII – Giants 17, Patriots 14
Super Bowl XLI – Colts 29, Bears 17
Super Bowl XL – Steelers 21, Seahawks 10
Super Bowl XXXIX – Patriots 24, Eagles 21
Super Bowl XXXVIII – Patriots 32, Panthers 29
Super Bowl XXXVII – Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21

The Chiefs rallied for 21 points in the fourth quarter and finished with 31 points on Sunday. Kansas City was the fifth-highest scoring team in the league last year, averaging 28.2 points per game, while San Francisco was actually second, averaging 29.9 points per game.

Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photo by: Mary Holt/PR

Tampa Bay’s 48 points in Super Bowl XXXVII were the fourth-most in Super Bowl history, and even though the defense scored 21 points in that game, Jon Gruden’s offense put up 27 points on its own. The good news for the Bucs heading into 2020 is that Tampa Bay is coming off its best year in terms of scoring points, reaching the 400-point mark (456) for the first time in franchise history. The Bucs were tied for third in the league in scoring in 2019 with 28.6 points per game.

PROTECTING THE BALL IS HUGE
Over the past 18 Super Bowls, teams that have won the game have had two or less turnovers with one exception. In fact, teams that have won the Super Bowl have won the turnover battle 12 times and only lost it twice, and there have been four occasions where the Super Bowl champion was tied with the Super Bowl loser in terms of turnovers. But the key is having two turnovers or fewer, and the three teams that haven’t had a turnover in the past 18 Super Bowls – Green Bay, New Orleans and the New York Giants – were all triumphant.

Only once did a team turn the ball over three times and still prevail. That was Indianapolis in a rainy Super Bowl against Chicago, but the Bears coughed the ball up five times, so the Colts were still plus-2 in the turnover margin that night. Kansas City was ranked fourth in the league with a plus-8 turnover margin, while San Francisco ranked 10th in the NFL with a plus-4 turnover margin in the regular season.

A big reason why the Bucs can’t get over the hump and into the playoffs is because they keep beating themselves. The last time Tampa Bay had a positive turnover margin (plus-2) was in 2016 when the team went 9-7 and narrowly missed the postseason. In 2018, the Bucs were minus-18 in the turnover margin and were second to last in the league. Last year, Tampa Bay was minus-13 and ranked 29th in the league. If the Bucs are looking for any hope in this area, the 49ers were dead last in 2018 in turnover margin at minus-25 before improving to plus-4 this season.

Bucs TE O.J. Howard – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs won Super Bowl XXXVII by recording five takeaways and having a plus-4 turnover margin against the Oakland Raiders. But Tampa Bay not only needs to get better at protecting the football, as Winston led the league with 30 interceptions, in addition to five fumbles, but also taking it away, evidenced by just 12 interceptions to go along with 17 fumble recoveries. In 2002, the Bucs defense had a franchise-record 31 interceptions in addition to eight fumble recoveries.

WINNING CLOSE GAMES
Super Bowls are often close games won in the fourth quarter, as Kansas City did on Sunday, outscoring San Francisco 21-0 down the stretch after trailing by 10 points after three quarters. In fact, four of the last six Super Bowls were decided by a touchdown or less, and since Tampa Bay the championship in 2002, nine of the last 18 Super Bowls have been decided by a touchdown or less.

Kansas City was 5-4 in games decided by a touchdown or less during the regular season, but two of those losses came in games where Mahomes was sidelined with a knee injury. In addition to trailing by 10 points in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs also trailed by at least 10 points in each of their two playoff victories and prevailed thanks to Mahomes’ second half heroics.

Tampa Bay was not so fortunate in close games in 2019, finishing with a 3-6 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. The Bucs’ penchant for turning the ball over and often losing the turnover battle was a big factor in losing close games. If Tampa Bay can quit beating itself, it can win more close games in 2020.

RUSH THE PASSER
We started this discussion illustrating how Super Bowl winners had a playmaking QB, and the antidote to great quarterback play is a great pass rush. Of the past 18 Super Bowl champions, the winning team had more sacks than the losing team in 11 Super Bowls. Only four times did the losing team have more sacks than the Super Bowl winner, and on three other occasions the sack total was tied. This past Sunday was one of those few times, as San Francisco sacked Mahomes four times and lost, while Kansas City sacked Garappolo only once and prevailed.

Ex-Bucs DE Simeon Rice – Photo by: Getty Images

The Bucs sacked Raiders quarterback Rich Gannon, who was the NFL MVP in 2002, five times en route to winning Super Bowl XXXVII, and didn’t allow Brad Johnson to get sacked once. The good news for the 2020 Bucs is that the 2019 squad is coming off a season in which Tampa Bay recorded 47 sacks – the second-most in franchise history. If the Bucs can re-sign outside linebackers Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul, who combined for 28 sacks a year ago, Tampa Bay’s pass rush should be quite fierce again this season.

So what has this analysis shown us about the 2020 Buccaneers’ chances of playing in Super Bowl 55, which will be held in Tampa? The Bucs check two out of the five boxes when it comes to scoring points on offense and rushing the passer on defense, but the inability to win the turnover margin and win close games leaves those boxes unchecked for now.

And the biggest question of all is whether or not Jameis Winston can be a playmaking quarterback in Tampa Bay – one that doesn’t make as many plays for the other team as he makes for the Bucs.