FAB 2. Junior QBs Could Change The Draft For Bucs

After sliding down two draft spots due to their upset win over the New Orleans on Sunday, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ draft hopes received a boost this week.

The Bucs are still picking seventh overall in April, but the fact that junior quarterbacks Lamar Jackson (Louisville), Josh Rosen (UCLA), Sam Darnold (USC) and Oklahoma’s Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield joined Wyoming junior QB Josh Allen in declaring for the 2018 NFL Draft helps Tampa Bay. With Jameis Winston at the helm, there is no need for the Bucs to invest in a first-round quarterback.

And as is the case with teams that typically pick in the top 10, there is ample need for a first-round quarterback with teams that pick higher than the Bucs. So what does that mean for Tampa Bay? The more quarterbacks drafted ahead of the Bucs the more likely that upper echelon talent that doesn’t play the quarterback position falls to Tampa Bay.

Let’s take a look at the needs for the teams picking in the top seven of the draft:

1. Cleveland – QB, CB, RB, DT
2. NY Giants – QB, OT, RB, DE
3. Indianapolis – LB, OT, DE, OG
4. Cleveland (from Houston) – QB, CB, RB, DT
5. Denver – QB, G, OT, WR
6. NY Jets – QB, RB, WR, OT
7. Tampa Bay – DE, RB, G, CB

With four teams needing quarterbacks – Cleveland, the New York Jets and possibly both Denver and the New York Giants – there is a chance that as many as four or five quarterbacks could be taken in the first six selections if Mayfield, Allen and/or Jackson have an impressive offseason and somehow achieve a top 10 draft status that some pundits believe they are worthy of.

Here is how one scenario could ideally play out for Tampa Bay:

1. Browns – UCLA QB Josh Rosen
2. Giants – USC QB Sam Darnold
3. Colts – North Carolina State DE Bradley Chubb
4. Browns – Penn State RB Saquon Barkley / Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
5. Broncos – Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
6. Jets – Louisville QB Lamar Jackson / Wyoming QB Josh Allen
7. Bucs – Notre Dame G Quenton Nelson

Four or five quarterbacks going that high is absolutely the best-case scenario for the Bucs, whose top team needs are defensive end, running back, guard and cornerback. In addition to Rosen, Darnold, and possibly Allen, Mayfield and/or Jackson, the current consensus top draft picks are North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb, Penn State running back Saquon Barkley, Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson and Alabama defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick.

NC State DE Bradley Chubb – Photo courtesy of NC State Univ.

And what happen to be Tampa Bay’s top needs? Defensive end, running back, guard and cornerback, and Chubb, Barkley and Nelson all seem like ideal fits. Perhaps Fitzpatrick, too, although the Bucs have a more pressing need at outside cornerback and Fitzpatrick played safety and nickel for the Crimson Tide.

The Bucs will likely move on from aging and ineffective defensive end Robert Ayers, who is 32, and his $6 million cap value in 2018. He’s due a $1 million roster bonus in March, so his days in Tampa Bay appear to be numbered.

With the team getting zero sacks from Will Gholston last year despite a hefty contract extension, and only one sack from Noah Spence before a second shoulder surgery sidelined him early into the 2017 campaign, the Bucs need to find a pass rusher off the edge.

While not terribly fast and explosive, Chubb gets the job done the way New Orleans’ Cameron Jordan gets it done – with power, quickness and determination. Chubb had 25 career sacks for the Wolfpack, including back-to-back years with 10 sacks each as a junior and a senior. In a draft that is scarce on quality edge rushers, if the Bucs could land Chubb at No. 7 it would be a coup, but I don’t know if he gets by the Giants or the Colts.

The Bucs’ leading rusher was second-year running back, Peyton Barber, who started the year third on the depth chart. Barber isn’t flashy and is ideally suited as a change-of-pace back, while the rest of the unit needs to be overhauled. That means Doug Martin and Jacquizz Rodgers need to go, and the team needs to pass on re-signing third-down back Charles Sims, who is slated for free agency.

Barkley is the type of three-down weapon that would excel in Dirk Koetter’s offense, which favors running backs that can catch the ball. He’s a better receiver than Martin and a better runner than Sims, so Barkley, who rushed for 3,843 yards and caught 102 passes for 1,195 yards with 51 total touchdowns at Penn State, could do both and save the Bucs a roster spot.

San Diego State RB Rashaad Penny – Photo by: Getty Images

The only thing about possibly drafting Barkley that high is that this draft has a plethora of stud running backs in it from USC’s Ronald Jones II, to San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny to Georgia’s tandem of Sony Michel and Nick Chubb among others. The Bucs might be able to get a quality running back in the second round, as New Orleans did this past year with Pro Bowler Alvin Kamara in the second round.

The Bucs need to bolster their offensive line, especially in the interior where the team got sub-par play from free-agents-to-be Kevin Pamphile and Evan Smith, who shared time at left guard, in addition to right guard J.R. Sweezy, who missed the entire 2016 season with a back injury. Nelson, who will be a plug-and-play guard as a rookie, is widely regarded as the best offensive line prospect in the draft.

I’ll have more on Nelson in the next section of this week’s SR’s Fab 5.

Fitzpatrick is a fine defensive back, but is probably best suited to play safety at the next level as he roamed the interior of Alabama’s defense and not the perimeter. The Bucs drafted safety Justin Evans in the second round last year, and the team has more pressing needs rather than drafting another safety in the first round this year.

Tampa Bay needs a cornerback to play outside and just selected one in Vernon Hargreaves III with the 11th overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft, who has largely been a disappointment. If the Bucs are going to spend another first-round pick on a cornerback it’s going to be for a stud shutdown cornerback like Patrick Peterson, Marcus Peters or Marshon Lattimore. Fitzpatrick is not that type of defensive back.

Let’s take a look at a possible scenario in which Chubb, Barkley, Nelson and Fitzpatrick are all off the board:

1. Browns – UCLA QB Josh Rosen
2. Giants – USC QB Sam Darnold
3. Colts – North Carolina State DE Bradley Chubb
4. Browns (from Texans) – Penn State RB Saquon Barkley
5. Broncos – Notre Dame G Quenton Nelson
6. Jets – Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
7. Bucs – Trade down candidate

In this situation, the Bucs then become a possible candidate to trade down, unless the team wants to take Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward or Iowa cornerback Josh Jackson at No. 7 if either warrants a grade that high. Of course the reason the Bucs could trade down would be because quarterbacks like Mayfield, Jackson and Allen would all be on the board and could be in demand, in addition to the fact that offensive tackles like Texas’ Connor Williams, Notre Dame’s Mike McGlinchey, and Oklahoma’s Orlando Brown would still be available, too.

Bucs GM Jason Licht and head coach Dirk Koetter – Photo courtesy of the Buccaneers

The No. 7 spot could be a hot spot for teams looking to trade up, especially for a quarterback, but there could be peril for the Bucs. With the next six teams that follow Tampa Bay in draft order – Chicago, San Francisco, Oakland, Miami, Cincinnati and Washington – all set at the quarterback position with established veterans, or recently acquired young arms like the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky and the 49ers’ Jimmy Garoppolo, the next team that has a need at quarterback is Arizona, which picks 15. Would the Bucs want to slide down eight spots in the first round? And for whom and how much in terms of collecting additional draft picks?

A lot can and will happen between now and April in terms of draft prospect rankings and team needs, but I wanted to set the table for those of you that follow the Buccaneers’ draft needs and potential prospects in the offseason.