Tom Brady is back. The Bucs are gearing up to go “all-in” for another Super Bowl run. They are “running it back.”

Insert “we think we can win it all” cliche here.

With the understanding that the G.O.A.T. is not under contract past this year, Tampa Bay is trying to set up the best possible roster for 2022. And the team should. Tomorrow is not guaranteed to us nor is a championship window guaranteed to remain open for NFL teams.

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

When a team has a franchise QB it should prioritize giving him the best possible chance to get to the promised land.

Now I want to throw another cliche at you, and then I promise I will stop.

“The cap is a myth.”

Pewter Report’s own JC Allen drives me up a wall all the time with this phrase. He is wrong and so is anyone else that says it. Don’t believe the hype. Now that’s not to say that the cap can’t be managed and massaged to serve a team’s goals. Some goals are short-term – like the Bucs trying to win it all again this season in what could be Brady’s final year in Tampa Bay. While others are looking at a longer-term plan (cough, cough, Houston).

An Early Look At The Bucs’ 2023 Salary Cap

In order to maximize the team’s roster this year the Bucs are pushing money to the future. But how will that affect their ability to field good teams down the line? In NFL circles you will hear the term “mortgaging the future” when teams start pushing money – in some cases dead money – to future years. But what does that really look like?

I wanted to find out, so I decided to take a look at the Bucs’ financial flexibility in 2023. What is financial flexibility? I defined it as the amount of salary cap that cannot be moved off the books.

There are four groups this falls into. First are prorated bonuses. Second are rookie salaries that are fully guaranteed. And also the league minimum salary for any veteran player with a fully guaranteed contract. Third are any dead cap penalties assessed to a year based on void years in contracts that are being moved off the books.

The rest of salaries, bonuses, currently sitting on a team’s cap can theoretically be moved to a future year or potentially terminated altogether.

Tampa Bay currently has $240,028,462 in cap liabilities covering 40 players for 2023 per Over The Cap. That’s not good when you consider the salary cap is currently projected around $225 million next year.

Creating Cap Room In 2023

This is where fans start to scream, “The cap can’t be real!”

Bucs VP of football administration Mike Greenberg and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

But again, many of these cap figures can be cut, or restructured to create more room. So how much room could the Bucs theoretically create? Tampa Bay can take its cap liabilities down to just over $129 million if it were to restructure all of the big investments and cut everyone else that would give the team some cap relief.

However, that would leave the Bucs with just 11 players under contract and only $96 million to fill out 42 roster spots. That’s unlikely to say the least.

More realistically, the team can restructure most of the aforementioned big investments with about $159 million in cap hits across 36 players.  This would leave the Bucs with about $66 million to bring in 17 players. That is plenty of flexibility to allow the team to maneuver in all sorts of directions.

Don’t Worry, Bucs Fans

Yes, the salary cap is real.

And, it can seem complicated.

Yes, the Bucs are “kicking the can down the road” (sorry, I had one more cliche in me) during this Super Bowl window.

No, the team is not doomed financially next year.

The Bucs will need to be smart as they have been in years past to ensure they continue to balance talent and cost. Rest assured Jason Licht, Mike Greenberg and the Bucs front office are well-aware of the flexibility they have in 2023 and beyond.