the average points scored in the NFL is 23 points. Anything under that and the offense didn't do their job. Anything over that and you'd argue the defense perhaps
That’s tough to get to when your time of possession was 24 minutes on offense due to the defense not being able to get off the field all game. Stop with it. We’re not in the playoffs without the Bucs 2024 offense. The only time a non-Brady Bucs offense has had a top 5 offense.
We’re not in the playoffs without the Bucs 2024 offense.
Correct.
Really poor decision on the Glazers part to not strike while the iron was hot.
Slammed shut the little bit of a window we still had left.
the average points scored in the NFL is 23 points. Anything under that and the offense didn't do their job. Anything over that and you'd argue the defense perhaps
That’s tough to get to when your time of possession was 24 minutes on offense due to the defense not being able to get off the field all game. Stop with it. We’re not in the playoffs without the Bucs 2024 offense. The only time a non-Brady Bucs offense has had a top 5 offense.
100% agree the offense was truly something special. Still doesnt mean they performed well in the playoff match
the average points scored in the NFL is 23 points. Anything under that and the offense didn't do their job. Anything over that and you'd argue the defense perhaps
That’s tough to get to when your time of possession was 24 minutes on offense due to the defense not being able to get off the field all game. Stop with it. We’re not in the playoffs without the Bucs 2024 offense. The only time a non-Brady Bucs offense has had a top 5 offense.
I think you're kind of making Badabing's point, which is the same as mine (I think).
Saying that the defense overperformed in the playoff game and the offense underperformed - both facts backed up by the statistics - is NOT a contradiction of the part in bold or a criticisms of Coen or the offense?
There's this weird thing about football message board where everyone puts themselves into camps, so if you are in the anti-Bowles/pro-Coen camp then it cannot be that the offenses underperformed and the defense overperformed. That makes no sense, logically speaking. That's why its out of step with multiple statistics and why you get the "conspiracy theory" that Bowles tanked the offense, meaning something that is virtually unknowable to square reality (defense over performed/offense under performed)
It could be true. As you pointed pout look at the Charlotte game in 2025 and the 30 runs. But, you're then comparing the power of Coen to the power of Grizz. One got promoted, pone got fired. One leading an offense that is the reason we were in the playoffs, one getting little from an offense that was part of a collapse.
Still, of all the anti-Bowles/pro-Coen bending of the reality of the Commanders playoff game, the one that MIGHT have the most validity is the idea that the game plan was Bowles influenced and so they went conservative, clock kill. The time of possession issue supports that theory. But, a couple problems with that theory too. For example, they dont score more early because they go pass, pass to a hot receiver who drops a 1st down. Thats not exactly conservative clock killing.
Anyway, the only point is that saying that the defense overperformed in the playoff game and the offense underperformed - both facts backed up by the statistics - is NOT a contradiction of the part in bold or a criticisms of Coen or the offense?
Still, of all the anti-Bowles/pro-Coen bending of the reality of the Commanders playoff game, the one that MIGHT have the most validity is the idea that the game plan was Bowles influenced and so they went conservative, clock kill. The time of possession issue supports that theory
Here are a few more stat comparisons that could support that theory (and the counter in parentheses)
1. 2024 Bucs are a 44% run percentage team, they run 56% against the Commanders (Commanders are 2nd worst run defense in the league, so it makes sense as a game plan. Its also a close game)
2. 2024 Bucs are a 51% 3rd down conversion offense, they convert 55% against the Commanders, so its not like they were playing wide open but just didnt convert and that suggest running is part of the plan
The challenge for that theory though is that the the PROPER game plan against the 2024 Commanders would be to get up early and then LEAN into the run to kill clock, keep Daniels on the sideline. Part of that plan would also be "bend dont break" defense. Almost every NFL coach devises that exact plan for that game. So, Coen is just as likely IN on the plan if its real
And that still brings us back to the thing that fails is the execution of the OFFENSE. They dont score early, like they did all season. They also turn over the ball deep basically conceding a TD and they totally choke up the last drive (just like the defense didnt prevent a FG)
And that still brings us back to the thing that fails is the execution of the OFFENSE. They dont score early, like they did all season
The 2024 offense was #1 offense in the league at 1st quarter scoring averaging a TD per game.
The Bucs often WON when they scored to their average or better in the 1st quarter
They often LOST when they underperformed in the first quarter - Broncos, Chiefs, 49ers and Cowboys losses are all 0 1st quarter.
The Commanders playoff game is an UNDERPERFORMING 1st quarter, 3 points and a punt
The Commanders are the 4th or 5th best 1st quarter scoring team at 5.8 points per game. The Bucs defense held the Commanders to ZERO points in the 1st quarter actually stopping them on DOWNS
So the point is the INFERIOR defense does its part and then some in the critical 1st quarter and the offense does not. and that is not because of a run first game plan, they throw two passes to McMillan and he drops a critical 1st down. That is execution failure by their HOTTEST (but young) receiver. McMillan later fumbles the jet sweep.
Things go south from there and the defense is certainly part of the problem because they give up a 20 play TD drive in the second quarter BUT if the offense comes 1st quarter with an average production or even 10 points they probably win even with the other offensive F- ups
If you can't force a punt to give your top tier offense more chances at scoring or shortening the field you do not deserve to advance. Heavily blaming the offense for the playoff loss is just dumb.
All three phases of the units failed in that playoff game but saying the defense wasn't as bad is a gross exaggeration. IF YOU CAN"T FORCE A PUNT as a defense you are not advancing.
and for what its worth (not much lol), even with the way the game played out two things should be UNDENIABLE
1. the defense couldn't stop a winning FG last drive
2. the offense could not score a TD on its last drive when it was really needed.
So, both are to blame BUT the offenses shortcoming is an actual CHOKE. and its really a DOUBLE CHOKE 4th quarter for the SECOND BEST 4th quarter scoring offesne in the league at nearly 9 points a quarter.
The big choke is 2nd and 1 from the 12 yards line and they go BUSTED PLAY and then negative run.
BUT . . the JET SWEEP FUMBLE . . . another CHOKE play meaning its going to be successful if they just handle the exchange like they did all season. Again, McMillan.
And the Jet sweep fumble series occurs because the INFERIOR defense makes a GOAL LINE stand
So the defense could not stop a FG but Coen's 9 point per 4th quarter offense scored only 3 point and had two different CHOKES one basically conceding the Commanders a TD.
If there is no jet sweep fumble and the Bucs just go down and get a FG that is a 10 point swing and its 2 score fourth quarter? The offense still underperforms its average 4th quarter but the Bucs likely WIN
This breakdown of stats feels excessive. Football is an emotional sport, full of ups and downs. Even though we gave up fewer yards and points, the defense didn’t really over-perform. They allowed the Commanders to control the clock throughout the game, which kept our offense sidelined. Sure, we shortened the game, but did that benefit us or the Commanders more? I’d argue it hurt us since the Commanders had the time of possession advantage. In games like this, scoring tends to drop for everyone. That strategy worked for the Commanders, and it was crucial for their win.
This breakdown of stats feels excessive.
well thats an interesting take lol
Isolated stats can be misleading, but the more that different stats line up together the more they reflect reality.
I agree though that football is emotional and momentum plays a big part and so in that regard the long Commanders drives definitely impact the offense. But, the Bucs offense sidelined itself repeatedly and even turned over the ball deep in our own end.
Interesting topic though. Appreciate there are different ways to see the game.
This breakdown of stats feels excessive. Football is an emotional sport, full of ups and downs. Even though we gave up fewer yards and points, the defense didn’t really over-perform. They allowed the Commanders to control the clock throughout the game, which kept our offense sidelined. Sure, we shortened the game, but did that benefit us or the Commanders more? I’d argue it hurt us since the Commanders had the time of possession advantage. In games like this, scoring tends to drop for everyone. That strategy worked for the Commanders, and it was crucial for their win.
i am not saying the defense played great. Bowles defense has been getting progressively worse with time. What i am saying is that they played to the average that game. Hard to force a punt if the opposing coach doesn't punt. They had a few turnover on downs which were big.
the offense was putting up near 30 points a game. They put up 37 Points against Washington in week 1 with just 1 extra drive.
They lost the game on 2 plays - the jet sweep fumble in our redzone and the Barton botched snap. It is what it is
doesn't mean the offense wasn't the highlight of that year, they were! ...but if you are asking what unit i was more disappointed in....it was the offense that game.
long gone are the days of the 02 Bucs. Seattle D was solid last year and i can only imagine the Rams being solid this year but the Bucs are going to be an average unit at best this year. If they let up 23 points or less, it's up to the offense to win that game.
We were 4-6 after the bye that year
@NYG - W 30-7
@CAR - W 26-23
V LV - W 28-13
@LAC - W 40-17
@DAL L 26-24
V CAR - W 48-14
V NO - W 27-19
6-1 and the least points scored by the offense was 24. the defense as you can see didn't give up the league average in many games either, just the Dallas game.
and in the Dallas lost, score was 26-24 Dallas, Bucs force a 3 and out with just under 2 minutes to go and White fumbles the ball.
You will lose more than you win if you aren't at least putting up 23 points and we saw that during the collaspe last year. Bowles haters point to the "3rd and 28" but conveniently forget any of wins or losses where the Bucs were not giving up many points.
It's interesting to note that Draftkings has Liam's team for over/under wins/losses at 8.5. Doesn't seem reasonable.
I don't feel like they lost a ton and, it feels like they are better at the positions that matter now, like RB for instance.
I will take that bet.
It's interesting to note that Draftkings has Liam's team for over/under wins/losses at 8.5. Doesn't seem reasonable.
I don't feel like they lost a ton and, it feels like they are better at the positions that matter now, like RB for instance.
I will take that bet.
they won 13 games last year driven by an 8 game win streak to end the year. Most of it was weak competition (Jets, Titans x2, Colts without Jones x2, Cardinals) but they did have 2 impressive wins over the Chargers and Broncos in that run.
Earlier in the year lost to Bengals, Seahawks, and Rams but beat the Texans, 49ers, and Chiefs so essentially 50/50 in the toss up games outside of the magical run
So this year, they have AFC North, Denver, New England, NFC East, and Chicago.
just appears to be a tougher schedule. Is the over still a good bet? most likely but it's not as slam dunk as you think
Jacksonville can actually be a better team and not reach the 13 wins. That's hard to do unless your a legit Super Bowl team and to me, Jaguars are a pretender....like our Bucs.
Kind of opposite of our team last year. We had a great start but then tapered off once teams knew how to beat us. Most teams will get injuries during the season cause football is a nasty sport. It's not really a great excuse. We also arguably got healthier when the year went a long with starters returning to the lineup later on. While health is something we can point to and our depth for sure. I think that's a case for a lot of teams. Where the difference is imo is in the details and that's from your coaches. Which imo has been the teams ultimate weakness. Its also been a consistent issue since we lost that playoff game and even back to the playoff game vs the rams. There's not really any denying it. Coaching can be the difference for a team that is mid to positive performing playoff team. One thing to keep an eye on this season.
Most of it was weak competition (Jets, Titans x2, Colts without Jones x2, Cardinals) but they did have 2 impressive wins over the Chargers and Broncos in that run.
In the NFL, I will never accept the "weak competition" narrative. Mainly because it doesn't exist. They went to Denver and absolutely dotted their eye. They will win more than 8 games. Obviously, they need Lawerence to stay healthy but, they are a playoff team.
