Mayfiled to get $50 million?

OlafSnowfake · 2026-03-31T13:46:46Z

There is an thread filled with angst when it was reported Mayfield might get $40 million a few years ago. That turned out okay. Here's Josh Q now saying $50 million: What Would A Possible Extension Look Like? The $40 million salary this year works as the basement floor for a potential extension. *** A . . . comp . . would be Kirk Cousins’ 2022 deal with the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins was coming off of a two-year stretch where he completed 67% of his passes for 8,486 yards and 68 touchdowns to just 20 interceptions while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. He also had 54 big time throws to 36 turnover-worthy plays per Pro Football Focus. Mayfield’s production since 2024 is very close to those marks. He’s completed 68% of his passes for 8,378 yards and 69 touchdowns to 27 interceptions while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. He’s also thrown 50 big time throws to 53 turnover-worthy plays (turnover-worthy plays include fumbles). Mayfield has a few other factors helping to set him above Cousins in terms of valuation. Mayfield is 2.5 years younger than Cousins was at the time of his 2022 extension and he is a bigger rushing threat as evidenced by his 509 extra rushing yards and 23 additional explosive runs. Those factors should more than offset the discrepancy in turnover metrics. Cousins’ extension, a one-year, $35 million deal had an APY that 16.81% of the salary cap that year. The equivalent in 2026 would be roughly $50.5 million. And that’s where I think Mayfield’s current value lies.

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These are all good assumptions to make but considering the 2025 season was consistent with 50% of Bakers seasons in the Pros

Regression to the mean, discount to near zero all potential causation? Um . . . okay. In a season where he carries the team in the first half, no less.

The number of NFL teams that would follow that analysis after 2023, 2024 and 2025 . . . has got to be close to zero.

I think you only make that argument to support your "no more premature extensions," and that is a fair point, even with the creative choice in argument.

wouldn't say first half...first 6 games he carried us to comeback wins. Then he was one of the main reasons for our demise

This post was modified 13 seconds ago by BadabingBucs

Posted : May. 8, 2026 10:54 am

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Mayfiled to get $50 million?

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