To me, juice ain't worth the squeeze all things considered.
So, what's your move?
Let the season play out and franchise him if we have to...
Who are we competing against next year? In my mind only 3 or 4 teams need a QB and that includes the dolphins who just sign Malik Willis.
The draft class for QBs next year is crazy deep. Maybe 5-8 starters in it.
So supply/demand... And if Baker wants to leave after killing it this year then we just decide on franchise vs let him walk, take the comp pick, and draft a QB.
So worst case scenario is Baker kills it but walks and we aren't willing to franchise... And we could still negotiate next year too.
Isnt possible Mayfield sees FA as his way out? Team falling apart but play his best and hit FA to go wherever or team gets better, stay.
see here's the thing though, if Baker plays his best, i dont see how this team isn't a playoff squad
would hardly call what transpired the last 11 games last year Bakers best. He wont be in the NFL as a starter much longer if that's the case
so if Baker plays his best, the Bucs are a playoff team easily last year despite atrocious defense
and with franchise tag at our disposal, if we want Baker back, he isn't leaving us. it's not like he would be disgruntled because we made him wait to offer him a contract. I mean it's business and the guy has not been consistent.
I believe the opportunity to sign Mayfield to an extension is closing because at some point Licht might want to pivot and work on a deal with Diaby this off season and put Mayfield's deal on the backburner for next year. Now there is a chance the team extends both this off season but I think it gives the team more room if they do Diaby or Mayfield this off season and next off season they worry about the one they didn't re up. Then that gives the Bucs FO some breathing room if Kancey balls out and you figure out what Mauch can do when fully healthy.
Waiting till next year to work on all these contracts is going to be too difficult and the Bucs opportunity to sign outside free agents on long term deals was this off season but the Bucs punted. So now they have chosen this course and they will have ride it down the pathway of choosing to reup some of their own or face down a potential talent drain. Backing out at this point would put them in a tough situation for the next off season.
Isnt possible Mayfield sees FA as his way out? Team falling apart but play his best and hit FA to go wherever or team gets better, stay.
see here's the thing though, if Baker plays his best, i dont see how this team isn't a playoff squad
Well, but you can probably imagine a scenario where the TEAM does not play its best and other teams searching for a FA QB do not attribute that to Mayfield. Thats almost 2025. Injuries, defensive collapse.
Thats why I suggested that Mayfield may not be motivated to take anything other than a good deal for him. If Mayfield plays mediocre in 2026 but the team collapses around him (injuries, defense sucks or whatever) there will still be plenty of teams that will want Mayfield and probably for more than the Buc would pay, ESPECIALLY if the Bucs are now going through a full overhaul. Hell, why would Mayfield want to play for the Bucs though that full overhaul?
So, again, free agency timing sort of gives him an extra card to play because of the current circumstances with the Bucs
I still think they reach a deal, I just dont think the Bucs have the kind of leverage some suggest
The idea of overpaying Yaya, Kancey, and Mauch sends chills down my spine... Throw in Baker and that's a lot of money for mid play
The idea of overpaying Yaya, Kancey, and Mauch sends chills down my spine... Throw in Baker and that's a lot of money for mid play
That is why I am surprised the Bucs didn't pursue more proven talent on long term deals this off season. Bucs were prepared to restructure contracts to keep Evans in the fold for example so they could have signed a defense player to a long term deal. So by punting on this off season all signs point to wanting to re up Mayfield, Yaya, Kancey and Mauch. Of those four I think Diaby can be re signed for a reasonable deal as he isn't a tier 1 edge rusher and a borderline tier 2 edge rusher.
The problem is waiting may work in Mayfield's advantage but for the Bucs they have to make decisions on some of these players soon too. Kancey and Mauch are easy to wait on to see how they are health wise but Diaby and Mayfield could have deals in place this off season.
It would take some creative accounting to pay Baker 50 million this season. According to Spotrak the Bucs only have 13 million of salary cap space. The top 5 players use up 52% of the salary cap. Give Baker a raise to 50 million and that goes up to 55%. Sign Baker to a long contract and he plays like he did in the 2nd half of the season and it is a disaster. The wise thing to do is let Baker play out the season and pay him based on his performance.
Winfield better return to form. He's making way too much to not play like a top 5 safety
In addition the cap space used up by the draft choices is 11 million. Cuts to other players would probably take that down to 6-7 million. Leaving approx. 6-7 million to use for the regular season that may be needed due to injuries. Where is the money to sign Baker to a big contract?
How big is too big, how long is too long?In addition the cap space used up by the draft choices is 11 million. Cuts to other players would probably take that down to 6-7 million. Leaving approx. 6-7 million to use for the regular season that may be needed due to injuries. Where is the money to sign Baker to a big contract?
The money is there, but so is the goodwill.
Stoo acting like this team didn’t deliberately dip out on critical defensive needs for two years, filling holes at LB, Edge & CB with jags and letting retirees hang around a season too long…while counting on rookies?
Tell me the OC leaving don’t leave us in a search we’ve only just recovered from, and our entire offensive line missing much of last season…not to mention both starting receivers, and starting running back, and you discern from the data that Baker has declined?
Sure. That’s what we saw and complained about last season, Baker didn’t win enough games by himself, he declined so he should just take less - cuz it’s gunna save the team?
For what? To let one of the most successful QB’s in franchise history to test the market in his final contract, after Licht finally built both sides of the ball?
Sorry. I also believe that if NOLA and KC can keep paying & rolling, and clear the cap, any smart GM/owner can.
If this sum-of-its-parts scheme things gunna work, all the parts have to occasionally be oiled.
In addition the cap space used up by the draft choices is 11 million. Cuts to other players would probably take that down to 6-7 million. Leaving approx. 6-7 million to use for the regular season that may be needed due to injuries. Where is the money to sign Baker to a big contract?
Tell me the OC leaving don’t leave us in a search we’ve only just recovered from, and our entire offensive line missing much of last season…not to mention both starting receivers, and starting running back, and you discern from the data that Baker has declined?
Sure. That’s what we saw and complained about last season, Baker didn’t win enough games by himself, he declined so he should just take less - cuz it’s gunna save the team?
a few things
1 - Good point on the offensive line. Not so much on the injuries to running back and receivers as when they returned was when Baker played really poorly. Now most chalk it up to the Rams game bruises. These are all good assumptions to make but considering the 2025 season was consistent with 50% of Bakers seasons in the Pros; it's a lot easier to believer 2025 is closer to who he is rather than say 2024. You know what might help break this stale mate? Playing the 2026 season in which likely Baker will get banged up and injuries will happen to some starters (here's hoping not to the offensive line)
2 - Franchise tag. Under no circumstances would Baker leave
3 - Home. This is Bakers home. We gave him a shot when no one else would. There will be like 3,4 other teams that would want Baker as starter realistically next year and none of them will be better choices than Tampa (NYJ, MIA, MIN, etc)
4 - Baker is going to command north of $50M+.
- He plays 2026 like he did 2024 and let's throw him 5 years, $275M
- He plays 2026 like he did 2023 and im not too happy about $50M+ but that is the going rate for QBs in the top 15 so he will get 3 years or 4 years $150, $200M. We will be better off with him than as you say a rookie or other journeyman QB
- He plays 2026 like he did the last 11 games of 2025, then no thanks, would pro-rate to like 22TDs, 15 INTs and i would suggest we move in a different direction
so you can see, all 3 are possible outcomes. It's a good thing we have nothing to worry about and no need for a premature extension. you guys act like Baker followed up his 2024 HOF campaign season with another solid season. He had arguably his 5th best season in his 8 year career statistically. Not exactly confidence boosting when considering to sign him to a long term deal
These are all good assumptions to make but considering the 2025 season was consistent with 50% of Bakers seasons in the Pros
Regression to the mean, discount to near zero all potential causation? Um . . . okay. In a season where he carries the team in the first half, no less.
The number of NFL teams that would follow that analysis after 2023, 2024 and 2025 . . . has got to be close to zero.
I think you only make that argument to support your "no more premature extensions," and that is a fair point, even with the creative choice in argument.
In the end, Licht/Bowles could be in a lame duck season and I don't their ghosts dictating cap after they are gone if we let them go.
That's what I boil it down to.