Give Mayfield a 50 million a year contract and you just wiped out all of the 2027 cap space and still need to sign Vea.
Any new deal with Baker would have a manipulated cap structure. It wouldn’t be $50M per year.
And, for the umpteenth time, WE DON’T NEED TO RE-SIGN VEA!
agree on Vea.
question on Mayfield...
I thought I read that the franchise tag for a would be around $44 next season? If that's right aren't they likely to cut a compromise deal next season because they will have the leverage of the tag and more cap space? Mayfield might be worth more but the tag leverage helps offset that risk?
yeah as much as i like Vita Vea, he is entering his age 31 season. Some phenoms play to like 35 (Darnold to 33, Suh, Sapp, Wilfork, Randle all 35ish) but most fizzle out by 33. If he test market and he is cheap, he can consider resigning because we still need somebody to man the position but Vea's age makes him a risk
The franchise tag for QBs in 2026 was $44M. Next year, would expect it to rise, maybe in the $46-$50M range but to your point, the tag leverage is our friend. Some wise poster has been slamming the table to let this season play out...ill see if i can dig it up and find out who that poster was.
DL and OL can play well into their mid 30s. Seahawks Reed is 33 and this is his second stint with the Seahawks and he is still fast enough to play UT if needed or play some NT and take on blocks. But you have more explosive guys in Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy so the Seahawks could literally move around any of these 3 on that line and not miss a beat.
With Gaines no longer a Buc you have Kancey (25), Robinson (31), Roches (32), and Vea (31). That is a lot of veteran leadership on the line now and this was a PURPOSEFUL strategic choice to bring in Roches and Robinson. Yes they did draft Caphart (23) and they do have Roberts (24). And they are also high on J. Jones (24). But these young guys have to prove to push for playing time over Roches, Robinson and Vea. Like I said don't be surprised if Vea earns another contract with the Bucs. I think the Bucs organization is more open to keeping veterans on the DL and OL longer than most teams would because they learned some important lessons from the 2nd Super Bowl run. And if you want to say the same with the first SB run too (eg Lomas Brown).
Like I said don't be surprised if Vea earns another contract with the Bucs.
Interested to see this play out. I think they move on from him, but you are right about the Bucs and veterans.
It would be interesting to know how teams typically allocate their $ or how the Bucs allocate their resources versus other teams. Josh Q touched on this suggesting too many $20 million contracts with little payoff So, for example is an Oline with Wirfs and Godeke too top heavy on $ or at least top heavy enough that they expect to lose Mauch like Cappa?
Is Vea a "luxury" if you have Dianby and Kancey etc.?
Teams need draft pick contracts to perform
According to SPOTRAK, the top 5 wage earners for the Bucs (Mayfield, Wirfs, Godwin, Winfield and Vea) us up 53% of the cap space for 2026. Than add in another 4% for Evans dead cap. That is 57% of the cap space leaving only 43% of cap space for the rest of the top 51 players.Like I said don't be surprised if Vea earns another contract with the Bucs.
Interested to see this play out. I think they move on from him, but you are right about the Bucs and veterans.
It would be interesting to know how teams typically allocate their $ or how the Bucs allocate their resources versus other teams. Josh Q touched on this suggesting too many $20 million contracts with little payoff So, for example is an Oline with Wirfs and Godeke too top heavy on $ or at least top heavy enough that they expect to lose Mauch like Cappa?
Is Vea a "luxury" if you have Dianby and Kancey etc.?
Teams need draft pick contracts to perform
The Seahawks top 5 only get 38% of cap space. KC top 5 get 43%. Lions is 46%. Jacksonville only 32%.
Thank you
Teams restructure/extend/renegotiate contracts for basically 2 reasons.
- They have an elite player that they don’t want to lose to FA.
- To create salary cap space.
There are several rules that teams must comply with when they restructure a player’s contract.
- The team cannot exceed the salary cap for the current year.
- Teams cannot restructure dead money from a previous contract.(signing bonus).
- Void years can only include signing bonuses, not salaries.
- Signing bonus money is prorated equally over the length of the contract even though the player gets the signing bonus immediately upon signing.
Lets take a look at a hypothetical restructure of a Mayfield restructure/extension.
Mayfield signs a 6 year contract whose last 3 years are voidable years for 150 million. 50 million is in the form of a signing bonus. The 50 million is prorated over the 6 years of the contract, or 8.3 million a year. The Bucs only have 8.6 million in cap space this season. Therefore the salary for Mayfield in the current season could only be a modest increase for the 2026 season. The other 100 million salary would have to be paid over the last 2 nonvoidable years of the contract.
If that remaining 100 million is equally spread between the 2027 and 2028 seasons, it would be 50 million a season.
In the 2027 season Mayfield would receive the 50 million but the salary cap would be the 50 million in salary, the 8.33 million signing bonus plus the 11 million Mayfield received in the signing bonus for the previous contract. (see rule 2 above). That means Mayfield’s salary cap for the 2027 season is 69.33 million. That will be over 20% of the team’s salary cap for 2027. That also pushes the Bucs salary cap 30 million over the expected 2027 salary cap.
Give Mayfield a 50 million a year contract and you just wiped out all of the 2027 cap space and still need to sign Vea.
Any new deal with Baker would have a manipulated cap structure. It wouldn’t be $50M per year.
And, for the umpteenth time, WE DON’T NEED TO RE-SIGN VEA!
agree on Vea.
question on Mayfield...
I thought I read that the franchise tag for a would be around $44 next season? If that's right aren't they likely to cut a compromise deal next season because they will have the leverage of the tag and more cap space? Mayfield might be worth more but the tag leverage helps offset that risk?
Of course they can tag him. But, what if he wants out after this season (he wasn’t happy going into last season)?
Thats a recipe for disaster.
I think it’s more of a matter of 2 camps who are still far apart on numbers. Which also means both sides are doing their jobs.
I am not saying they will tag him I am saying that there is the cap issue now and both sides have leverage forward. That suggests a compromise in the future.
if the team flounders this year all best are off anyway. Mayfield would likely leave for more $ and a new start, unless they hire a HC for him lol
if the team flounders, like it did last year, what makes you think Baker would be in line for big $ and a new start.
Don't get me wrong, he'd earn another contract....but think Tua and Murray type contracts where he'd be in a QB competition.
i know we are over-correcting here because i've been critical of Bake Show for 2025 collapse but if this team misses playoffs this year and he throws his "okay" less than 2 TDs a game with double digit INTs, i don't see many teams guaranteeing Baker a starting job or more money.
He is best off in Tampa and we are best off with him in 2027...but in these hypotheticals where the team sucks....can't imagine that would be coupled with elite QB play
Give Mayfield a 50 million a year contract and you just wiped out all of the 2027 cap space and still need to sign Vea.
Any new deal with Baker would have a manipulated cap structure. It wouldn’t be $50M per year.
And, for the umpteenth time, WE DON’T NEED TO RE-SIGN VEA!
agree on Vea.
question on Mayfield...
I thought I read that the franchise tag for a would be around $44 next season? If that's right aren't they likely to cut a compromise deal next season because they will have the leverage of the tag and more cap space? Mayfield might be worth more but the tag leverage helps offset that risk?
Of course they can tag him. But, what if he wants out after this season (he wasn’t happy going into last season)?
Thats a recipe for disaster.
I think it’s more of a matter of 2 camps who are still far apart on numbers. Which also means both sides are doing their jobs.
I am not saying they will tag him I am saying that there is the cap issue now and both sides have leverage forward. That suggests a compromise in the future.
if the team flounders this year all best are off anyway. Mayfield would likely leave for more $ and a new start, unless they hire a HC for him lol
if the team flounders, like it did last year, what makes you think Baker would be in line for big $ and a new start.
Don't get me wrong, he'd earn another contract....but think Tua and Murray type contracts where he'd be in a QB competition.
i know we are over-correcting here because i've been critical of Bake Show for 2025 collapse but if this team misses playoffs this year and he throws his "okay" less than 2 TDs a game with double digit INTs, i don't see many teams guaranteeing Baker a starting job or more money.
He is best off in Tampa and we are best off with him in 2027...but in these hypotheticals where the team sucks....can't imagine that would be coupled with elite QB play
My point was only that IF hypothetically the team flounders in 2026 and, as you keep suggesting, the TEAM had already lost confidence in Mayfield during this offseason based on his partial 2025 performance ("11 games of 2025") and that is, according to you, why they have not done a deal NOW (as opposed to cap, etc) then the team should value him even less after a floundering 2026, right?
I think an outside team is probably more likely to attribute the floundering to Bowles, 4th OC in as many years etc. It seems like there is always some team willing to pay more.
Give Mayfield a 50 million a year contract and you just wiped out all of the 2027 cap space and still need to sign Vea.
Any new deal with Baker would have a manipulated cap structure. It wouldn’t be $50M per year.
And, for the umpteenth time, WE DON’T NEED TO RE-SIGN VEA!
agree on Vea.
question on Mayfield...
I thought I read that the franchise tag for a would be around $44 next season? If that's right aren't they likely to cut a compromise deal next season because they will have the leverage of the tag and more cap space? Mayfield might be worth more but the tag leverage helps offset that risk?
Of course they can tag him. But, what if he wants out after this season (he wasn’t happy going into last season)?
Thats a recipe for disaster.
I think it’s more of a matter of 2 camps who are still far apart on numbers. Which also means both sides are doing their jobs.
I am not saying they will tag him I am saying that there is the cap issue now and both sides have leverage forward. That suggests a compromise in the future.
if the team flounders this year all best are off anyway. Mayfield would likely leave for more $ and a new start, unless they hire a HC for him lol
if the team flounders, like it did last year, what makes you think Baker would be in line for big $ and a new start.
Don't get me wrong, he'd earn another contract....but think Tua and Murray type contracts where he'd be in a QB competition.
i know we are over-correcting here because i've been critical of Bake Show for 2025 collapse but if this team misses playoffs this year and he throws his "okay" less than 2 TDs a game with double digit INTs, i don't see many teams guaranteeing Baker a starting job or more money.
He is best off in Tampa and we are best off with him in 2027...but in these hypotheticals where the team sucks....can't imagine that would be coupled with elite QB play
My point was only that IF hypothetically the team flounders in 2026 and, as you keep suggesting, the TEAM had already lost confidence in Mayfield during this offseason based on his partial 2025 performance ("11 games of 2025") and that is, according to you, why they have not done a deal NOW (as opposed to cap, etc) then the team should value him even less after a floundering 2026, right?
I think an outside team is probably more likely to attribute the floundering to Bowles, 4th OC in as many years etc. It seems like there is always some team willing to pay more.
fair points
and who knows what other teams would think
I mean Brady fell into our laps back in 2020 with very little competition for his services
baker showed upside in Cleveland, had a similar injury down season, and multiple coordinators and we got him with no one else wanting him
Grant it, he’s played his best in Tampa and he’d be more highly sought after then the first go around, but in this hypothetical of down play in 2026; that would become a pattern and I’d group him in the tua, Murray, Geno smith category as opposed to some premier QB becoming available
now he comes out and throws 35 TDs this year and it’s a moot point as he will be franchise tagged as worse case scenario
and who knows what other teams would think
For sure. I was only saying that an outside team is more likely to pay more than an inside team with 1.66 failed seasons with the QB, especially where the Bucs HC and OC were fired etc.
FWIW, Simms evaluated the 2026 QBs. His ranking for Mayfield (10th) might be a little high, but the analysis seems to fit:
“The elite traits are, of course his arm strength,” Simms said, noting there are throws Mayfield makes that several other QBs can’t. “It’s a big-time, game-changing arm.”
“Below average athlete for the 2026 quarterback and what we expect of him,” Simms said. “But, within that, [Mayfield is] awesome at moving in the pocket for a guy that’s not real big and then he plays big in the pocket and hangs in there and takes hits. Like you would think, is he 6-5, 230 pounds.”
The Bucs’ injuries at offensive line last season and at running back and receiver made Mayfield “a tough eval,” Simms said, noting that the film showed Mayfield seemed to be trying to hard to make things happen at times.
Negatives on Mayfield were too much trust in his arm and pushing limits, Simms said. “He will try to fit the ball into too-tight of a window or do something where you’re like, ‘Ahhh, that wasn’t worth it right there.'”
and who knows what other teams would think
For sure. I was only saying that an outside team is more likely to pay more than an inside team with 1.66 failed seasons with the QB, especially where the Bucs HC and OC were fired etc.
well before we even get into Bakers play; let's list the teams who will most likely BE OUT of the market for a QB - 1) New England 2) Buffalo 3) Baltimore 4) Cincinnati 5) Jacksonville 6) Denver 7) Los Angeles Chargers 8) Los Angeles Rams 9) Kansas City 10) Las Vegas 11) Philadelphia 12) Dallas 13) Washington 14) New York Giants 15) Chicago 16) Green Bay 17) Detroit 18) Seattle 19) San Francisco
i think that's a pretty strong list of eliminations whether Baker throws 40 touchdowns or 14 touchdowns in 2026.
so that leaves a revised pool of 12 teams
1) Miami 2) New York Jets 3) Cleveland 4) Pittsburgh 5) Houston 6) Tennessee 7) Indianapolis, 8) Minnesota 9) Arizona 10) Carolina 11) New Orleans 12) Atlanta
Now let's dig a bit deeper on other contracts and team fits to potentially eliminate some other teams. We will list these ones as UNLIKLEY
1 - Miami just signed Malik Willis to a 3 year, $68M deal with $45M guaranteed. I don't think that necessary takes them out of the market for a QB in 2027 offseason meaning basically drafting a QB high but i do think it will take them out of signing a veteran QB
2 - Cleveland seems like a no go given the history already along with DeShaun Watson contract hit of $35M in 2027. He will no longer be under contract but still will they attempt to ride out Sanders and Gabriel instead? Just seems like a no given the history anyway
3 - Houston is an interesting one. Stroud is trending in the word direction with passing yards and touchdown passes down each of his first 3 seasons. They exercised his 5th year option which would have him under contract in 2027. So doesn't necessary take them out of play to add a QB but seems to be a high priced vet likely not in consideration
4 - Tennessee seems like it would be a bit premature to give up on Cam Ward after 2 seasons but i wouldn't completely rule it out. Would suggest unlikely however
5 - The Colts signed Daniel Jones to a 2 year, $88M deal that will carry him through next year. Would think they would be in market for potentially a drafted rookie QB but veteran journeyman addition unlikely
6 - The Panthers seem unlikely here. Combine the history and the fact that Bryce Young is under contract through the 2027 season. Money talks so anything is possible but the history might suggest unlikely, wouldn't completely rule it out
so this narrows the list down to 6 potential teams aside from Tampa Bay - NYJ, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Arizona, New Orleans, and Atlanta
This doesn't include the 2027 NFL Draft which will likely see guys like Arch Manning, Dante Moore, and Julian Sayin go within the first round. So you can see it's not like there is a shitload of teams that will be opining for Baker's services and that's before we even got into play.
1. Miami may opt to draft a QB on a rookie deal if Willis does not work out to off set cap costs, so I agree they are out regarding signing a high priced vet for 2027.
2. Cleveland already is all in on plan B and C if Watson does not work out so they are not going to spend more money to bring back Baker.
3. Stroud keeps turnovers low but his high end TD production is lacking. Still he is a cheap option for them given the elite defense they have and that may be good enough from their point of view ala Brad Johnson.
4. Titans are under a new HC with the emphasis of building up that defense. They might want to ride out Cam's cheap rookie contract and surround talent for him.
5. Colts might decide to roll the dice on a draft QB if Jones has another season ending injury as insurance for 2027.
6. Canales wants to build a team around Young but more importantly Dan Morgan wants to build up the defense and let Evero do his work. For them to ditch Young he would have to really do a choke job in the playoffs for Canales to go with a veteran.
So, bada doesn’t seem to even wabt Baker on this team, what’s the remedy?
I think he’s our best chance, some guys who have played think he’s the best chance this team has, and another thinks he’s the 10th best in the league… but bada’s fantasy football analysis says otherwise, so…
Even though it’s couched with other names, Arch Manning seems to come up a lot in that “what if” analysis model…
Who to trust? It’s a dilemma…
So, bada doesn’t seem to even wabt Baker on this team, what’s the remedy?
I think he’s our best chance, some guys who have played think he’s the best chance this team has, and another thinks he’s the 10th best in the league… but bada’s fantasy football analysis says otherwise, so…
Even though it’s couched with other names, Arch Manning seems to come up a lot in that “what if” analysis model…
Who to trust? It’s a dilemma…
you may have misinterpreted my post. My point being is that there will be limited competition for Bakers services. Literally 19 teams do not need a QB or will go with what they currently got, 6 other teams could probably use Bakers services but due to history or recent contracts, likely will let it ride, and there will be 3 teams vying for rookie QBs in the draft in which they will go youth as opposed to a 32 year old journeyman QB.
And that was before we even talk about Baker's play, we are literally battling with 3 other teams potentially. This is just my point as no reason to extend him now because we have the luxury of letting this season play out. And Baker will appreciate that we gave him a chance and isn't going to pull an "AJ Brown" so to speak and we have a franchise tag at our disposal to work something out with all the leverage. This is business 101 folks.
I firmly believe Baker will be our QB next year and is our best option but is there hesitation to extend him prematurely like we did McCollum and Bowles? Yes. If he has his worst year as a Buc in 2026, are you happy with a premature 4 year extenstion?
The market has been set for "franchise QBs" and it's not much variability between 50M and 55M per year. Let the season play out.
but i digress...i am not sure we are debating the same topics. You want him prematurely extended right? You also wont admit he would have already been extended if he tossed 40 TDs again in 2025? I will admit he will give us our best chance to win in both 2026 and 2027 seasons versus what else is out there.
But if he continues his trajectory of mid play in which he did in the last two-thirds of the season, the Bucs are looking at a 6-11 record and likely a top 10 pick and likely a new coach. Could that temp them to draft a rookie QB? Possibly but i'll be positive and assume missing our two interior guards in that cup cake part of the schedule was the reason for Bakers decline in play and 2-4 record. Let's hope they stay healthy this year