so i'd argue the Bowles and team uncertainty is more for the Bucs. Like if Bowles loses his job because team played poorly, then one would think QB play was not elite. A new head coach, let them decide who they want at QB, particularly if the QB play was mid the last 2 years.
I meant that he might argue for a better or longer term contract specifically because a HC change looks imminent. More security because the team future is uncertain.
Threat of leaving is cute, but he can't leave. Franchise tag bud.
yes he can. He can play through the tag and then be free, right? That would alos be a mess for a team that needs to sing multiple payers back, right?
I just don't see where Baker has any leverage, particularly with how he finished last season.
I get that this is your overarching point, but the entire team disintegrated and they fired an OC so ata. minimum there is a counter.
Anyway, they likely work it out. Fingers crossed
if baker plays good enough that he is our qb for 2027 season as well, I’d think they’d work out a deal on an extension in your scenario that he may leave in 2028
My guess is that they work something out in February 2027 and simply may use the tag if things don’t go according to plan
if baker plays like we know he is capable of playing, I think the Bucs gladly give him 4 years, $220M in February.
my concern is they do something like that now, he throws 25 TDs, 12 INTs, we go 6-11 and have a shit contract on our hands.
Do we really want Derek Carr? bad franchises do that. See tua and Murray contracts
if baker repeats 2025, hell, the franchise tag may be the smart option and you get him on 1 year deal with a rookie QB drafted high in next years draft
you lose all flexibility by blowing your load early
He was simply asked a question about it and answered it perfectly
and exactly as practiced with his agent lmao.
It was a very good answer. He made the point (too low of a start) without being an ass and consistent with his role as a team first leader.
You might say it was a 35% answer
appreciate the sense of humor
whether baker playing like a top 5 QB or top 20; he’s always said the right things
I sort of tuned him out post game during the collapse though. “I got to play better” and then turns the ball over 3 times against Miami. Absolute joke lol
turns the ball over 3 times against Miami.
yes terrible INTs.
I dont recall the specific of the fumble, but I recall Wirfs out and then Michael Jordan and Feeney ugh
At bakers age and given his need to use his legs, I'm not sure why we aren't seriously considering the franchise tag.
He's 31 so the alternative is a 4 year deal taking him to 35. I'm good with that too...
But QBs that need their legs, die by their legs.
So I'm torn
Great post/points, saved me from replying to @badabing.side B - yeah tell me where he has leverage again?
Mayfield's first public comments this offseason was to make the Bucs look cheap to try to force them to negotiate against themselves lol so yes he has some leverage. He and his eagent even came out with the Stroud article ("Mayfield isn't asking for something crazy").
Here are a few basic points of leverage:
the market (this is the #1 thing)
Public perception
Bowles uncertainty
The Bucs brand is to keep their own
The threat of leaving (especially after Evans and LVD)
The team doesn't really want to use the tag, so thats not that strong for the Bucs. I think it will all work out, but I am an optimist.
Chief among them is Bowles uncertainty & that the market is pretty much defined. The perception angle, specifically (to me) losing good will with as I believe the free agent market has already effected us somewhat.
The team saw what Coen could do with Baker’s skillset. I just think Coen is on another level with playcalling. Hope Robinson can come close to that. This offensive roster has some questions that will need to be answered, but at least Robinson will have more options and o-line than Atlanta.
With the recent transition mistakes at OC - losing Coen and promoting Grizz and then whiffing on Hasaan Reddick - the organization put Baker in a less than winning position. If it all starts in the trenches, then the o-line injuries and the anemic d-line, just gutted any chance of sustaining victories. It led to Baker’s injuries and diminished play.
Trying to use the trouble the front office caused, as leverage against your starting QB, would be asinine if true. Baker has shown enough and the market is set. Sounds to me like the Glazers/Licht tried floating a Sam Darnold-type deal. That was dealt with by Baker’s skillful communication that redirected the pressure when he simply answered a question from the media.
Baker’s communication was supportive, but pointed, for a reason. Proves to me that they’re still just negotiating.
Could be that the Bucs will retreat to waiting, but I wouldn’t bet against Baker in that scenario, as that would mean the most expensive option is now on the table. That would stress the cap even more.
And if this scenario plays out, it will be far more expensive to sign Baker than it would be this season. If the team is looking for a Sam Darnold deal, that would be tough. If it goes well this season, plays out and you need to pay him more…will the Glazer’s be happy to pay as they said? Who knows?Better than Purdy. Each side has equal leverage.The only logical use of franchise tag is to buy more time for negotiations. Not a great way to motivate the key to your offensive production. If you did that, surprise, you’re the Cincinnati Bengals.The Bucs are handling this perfectly
sure baker is a likable guy. Nothing more awesome than him extending a drive on a 3rd and long scramble! Pumped up!
but this is business and there’s no reason to extend him now. If he was dominate last year like he was in 2024, then hell yeah, you reward him.
but since he wasn’t, nah you show him that last year was not the standard and you let him earn it
and with franchise tag, his ass ain’t going anywhere
Talk about spiking it on the 10 yard line…
point is, we have all the leverage
Mr 16th best QB has none
Its negotiations.
in terms of equal leverage
lets see
side A - has the QB under contract this year, has a tool that would keep QB under contract at a $47M value next year which is less than Baker wants. Hmmm, interesting 🤔 think cousins and Prescott over the years. Side A also doest’t have anything to prove as another playoff miss and likely new coach, potentially different direction. One would think QB contributes to a teams success or lack there of
side B - yeah tell me where he has leverage again?
Not to mention, the team has the tag in their back pocket.
The player can sit out, but that doesn’t do much good for anyone. It sure as shit didn’t work out too well for Le’veon Bell or Haason Reddick. Both of their careers went down the chute after holding out.
and btw, Baker is handling this like a professional and the leader we want him to be
He was simply asked a question about it and answered it perfectly
I'm sure deep down he knows he is better than how last year ended up.
It's a win-win for us. Likely scenario - Dude plays with a chip on his shoulder and dominates this year and we pay him what he's worth in February with absolutely zero chance of him not being a Buccaneer.
Heck of a plan for guys who wear suits for a living. An organization who have worked hard to handle player personnel decisions that have made Tampa Bay into a free agent destination.
Yeah, I’m not seeing all the leverage with the Buccaneers.
Could be that waiting is what the Bucs want, but I absolutely understand that misinterpreting negotiations can make you want to spike the ball on the 10 yard line.
Id say the two parties are getting a bit closer.
so in your mind, what would be a deal in terms of length and value that baker signs now?
and assuming he replicates 2024 season what is he signing for in February?
what if he replicates 2025 performance? What’s the deal he gets in February?
bump
I'm not sure why we aren't seriously considering the franchise tag.
Well, to start, you just handcuffed yourself to a $50m cap hit next season.
How much are we projected to have available?
Kirwan
"
I don’t think [Jason Licht] can go to Baker Mayfield and say, ‘Let’s give you the Daniel Jones deal.’ That protects the club on a two-year deal. But I think when [Baker] says he is not close, to me he’s thinking, ‘Unless you’re talking mid-fifties, we’re not close.’ …
“So if I’m Baker and his agent, I’m thinking, ‘Oh, you gotta get me into the fifties.’ I’m not asking to go to the sixties, I get it.… Daniel Jones’ two-year deal is not gonna happen. … He made a comment [Friday] that he loves living in Tampa, wants to raise his family there. That’s just a secret message of ‘I want a long-term deal.’ That’s what that means. So I think if I’m looking at this, I’m probably, if I’m the club, I don’t want to do it, but I probably have to go to Jordan Love’s $55 million a year or Jared Goff’s $53 million. So split it and call it 54."
Either they are in the process of negotiating or they are going to wait until the season starts. In either case, Baker has to produce. So while he holds the cards, he needs to have a 38/10 type season with 11 wins or he won’t get what he’s looking for in Tampa Bay. It’s clearly the off-season but my guess is it doesn’t get done before the season starts and that is better for everyone involved.
According to SPOTRAK the Buc's have 42 million in cap space for the 2027 season. But that is with Mayfield's 12 million salary cap hit from his last contract. Add 40 million in a new contract and that wipes out all the 2027 salary cap.I'm not sure why we aren't seriously considering the franchise tag.
Well, to start, you just handcuffed yourself to a $50m cap hit next season.
How much are we projected to have available?
According to SPOTRAK the Buc's have 42 million in cap space for the 2027 season. But that is with Mayfield's 12 million salary cap hit from his last contract. Add 40 million in a new contract and that wipes out all the 2027 salary cap.I'm not sure why we aren't seriously considering the franchise tag.
Well, to start, you just handcuffed yourself to a $50m cap hit next season.
How much are we projected to have available?
The salary cap has proven to be a myth. Put it on the credit card and wait for the cap to raise. The saints have been getting away with it for a decade.
I'm not sure why we aren't seriously considering the franchise tag.
Well, to start, you just handcuffed yourself to a $50m cap hit next season.
How much are we projected to have available?
That's what he's wanting isn't it? 50m/year
How much more is it to franchise than to pay him his perceived market value?
Brady learned long ago that if you truly want to win you gotta leave some cap space.
Packers are in mediocrity hell and we are right there with them.
I love Baker more than most on this board but if you give him a 4 year 200 million dollar contract, we are cooked.
The salary cap is not a myth. Once the season starts you will not find a single team in the NFL the is over the salary cap for the current season. The Saints mortgaged the future by signing players to contracts that have void years. This season the Saints have over 114 million in dead cap because of those contracts. That means the Saints roster this year are only allowed to spend 114 million less on active players than the salary cap. The Bucs salary cap this year was reduced 13 million for the dead cap of Mike Evans. If the Bucs had that 13 million there would be cap space to sign Mayfield. Right now the Bucs salary cap will be reduced by 12 million in 2027 and 2028 and 6.2 million in 2029 for Mayfield's last contract. That dead money for those years cannot be negotiated away. The Bucs could sign Mayfield to a 10 year fully guaranteed contract for 200 million with the last 6 years as voidable years and put themselves in salary cap hell just like the Saints.According to SPOTRAK the Buc's have 42 million in cap space for the 2027 season. But that is with Mayfield's 12 million salary cap hit from his last contract. Add 40 million in a new contract and that wipes out all the 2027 salary cap.I'm not sure why we aren't seriously considering the franchise tag.
Well, to start, you just handcuffed yourself to a $50m cap hit next season.
How much are we projected to have available?
The salary cap has proven to be a myth. Put it on the credit card and wait for the cap to raise. The saints have been getting away with it for a decade.
According to SPOTRAK the Buc's have 42 million in cap space for the 2027 season. But that is with Mayfield's 12 million salary cap hit from his last contract. Add 40 million in a new contract and that wipes out all the 2027 salary cap.I'm not sure why we aren't seriously considering the franchise tag.
Well, to start, you just handcuffed yourself to a $50m cap hit next season.
How much are we projected to have available?
I go off OTC because they’re far more accurate.
Regardless, what do you think the cap situation looks like next season if we tag Baker?
At bakers age and given his need to use his legs, I'm not sure why we aren't seriously considering the franchise tag.
He's 31 so the alternative is a 4 year deal taking him to 35. I'm good with that too...
But QBs that need their legs, die by their legs.
So I'm torn
Mayfield is no RW as he can make reads in the middle of the field and work the quick passing game. I think people are not realizing that Mayfield can play the quick passing game and I think that Grizzard's emphasis on more downfield plays last seasno are causing people to forget that Mayfield can work the short passing game or be the point guard of the offense ala Sam Darnold of the Seahawks.
The key is that the Bucs have competent guard play so Mayfield isn't forced to scramble so much and to protect his shoulder. But this is why we better hope somebody beats out Bredeson like Schrauth and puts him on the bench.