It's not like we can hang our hat on Baker's success with previous teams so why is Tampa different?
I certainly get your overriding point but you make it in odd ways, logically speaking. For example the reason you might not look as much at "previous teams" is because he has had more recent success HERE, including in the season that includes the part of the season your argument rests on. So, even though you might ultimately be right it's your argument that is built on an outlier and it's even an outlier where you at least acknowledge potential outside factors
either way though I don't know thst Mayfield needs more chips on his shoulder to perform lol If anything he may need to dial it back a little
getting paid 4 million, $225M with six digits guaranteed, he will certainly dial it back.....and after a losing season where the offense ranked 18th in PPG; not exactly what we want to see
in 2024, the offense ranked 4th. In 2023, it ranked 20th. you tell me which season was the outlier.
It makes sense they'd try to re-sign him before the season starts. Maybe not wisest idea to let him go when he played very well for us after Brady left. Unless we are thinking a complete rebuild if/when Bowles inevitably fails this team..
i dont think the Bucs have any intention of letting Baker go, particularly with franchise tag at their disposal. A deal will be worked out prior to free agency.
Baker's last 8 games last year (ok ok, due to injuries and offensive line injuries) was some of the worst football of his entire career, not just his Bucs tenure.
I am of the believe that you don't reward that, let him play with a chip on his shoulder. After all, isn't that the most exciting Baker Mayfield to watch play?
Why take that away from us? What if the 8 games wasn't a fluke? Low chance you say but what if it's the new norm?
It's not like we can hang our hat on Baker's success with previous teams so why is Tampa different? We all think it is, but i certainly have hesitation. You say it was all Bowles and the defense and special teams, yadda yadda yadda but last 6 games were putrid at best by offense outside of 1 game.
i hope the Bucs stay the course and let him earn that new contract. I won't be upset if they sign him now, despite going against the right move, but you certainly have more risk in signing him now versus February
I think they do it now because of how he's performed for the most part with this team. Our history has been grim with the QB play. Yes it was bad the last 8 games but I think it was more about injuries than anything else imo. I also get it's risky to sign him because of that and his recent play but I think they might feel more secure at that position to lock him up even if he's not what we think he is. Drafting and developing a QB normally takes time and we don't have our QB of the future besides him. You can have both in the future. I think it's about securing that position because we've been so bad at that for so long. Ideally he earns it and plays very well but I would get the above logic.
i think obviously overall in Bakers buc tenure, it has been alot of good. So i get your point.
But...given the market has been set for QBs in the top 15, he is looking at $50M plus per year. The Cardinals and Dolphins thought they had their guys in Murray and Tua and those contracts backfired.
Baker will get the same dollar value.
The question becomes is he the 2024 guy that tossed 40+ TDs, or is he closer to the 2023/2025 guy which WON'T top 30 TDs. Two different QBs where one you feel great about signing to $50M + while the other you kind of suggest, ok, here's a guy we can be .500 with but is going to need alot of help, ala Sam Darnold with Seattle; And that alot of help becomes more difficult when you have to double the guys cap hit.
There is no doubt that Baker gives the Bucs the best chance to win in not only 2026, but also 2027. i dont see another option. Just suggesting, the Bucs have the luxury to wait
Option 1 - he dominates like 2024, you give him a new contract with ease, costing you very little since it's somewhere between $50-55M in per year value. He performs like 2024, he may even get a 5 year deal!
Option 2- He performs like 2023/2025, ehh...Bucs still resign him but maybe it's 3 year deal, $55M per year?
Option 3 - he performs like last half of 2025 extrapolated for full year; We likely have a new head coach coming in and Bucs have lost double digit games. New coach may want to head in a different direction and we can probably get a much cheaper bridge QB that can play just as ineffective
and with franchise tag option to help eliminate other teams from negotiations, very little downside
Baker tears his ACL in week 6, we still happy with the premature extension?
There's no reason to sign him now.
Be one thing if he dominated in 2025 as well; then yeah, we'd all be pounding the table to sign him now, but he regressed last year big time from 2024.
n 2024, the offense ranked 4th. In 2023, it ranked 20th. you tell me which season was the outlier.
Tampa had the 7th ranked offense in 2023
the outlier.
8 games at the end of injury riddled and OC fired 2025. Statistically speaking.
That is sort of the JC way lol.
I get the point though, its where he last was so where he starts, but in terms of what he should be its definitely more reasonable to look at his entire Bucs tenure.
Or at least to account for the fact that he was in MVP territory right before your subset of games from 2025.
Who knows though? We will all see soon enough.
There is an thread filled with angst when it was reported Mayfield might get $40 million a few years ago. That turned out okay.
Here's Josh Q now saying $50 million:
What Would A Possible Extension Look Like?
The $40 million salary this year works as the basement floor for a potential extension.
***
A . . . comp . . would be Kirk Cousins’ 2022 deal with the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins was coming off of a two-year stretch where he completed 67% of his passes for 8,486 yards and 68 touchdowns to just 20 interceptions while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. He also had 54 big time throws to 36 turnover-worthy plays per Pro Football Focus.
Mayfield’s production since 2024 is very close to those marks. He’s completed 68% of his passes for 8,378 yards and 69 touchdowns to 27 interceptions while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. He’s also thrown 50 big time throws to 53 turnover-worthy plays (turnover-worthy plays include fumbles).
Mayfield has a few other factors helping to set him above Cousins in terms of valuation. Mayfield is 2.5 years younger than Cousins was at the time of his 2022 extension and he is a bigger rushing threat as evidenced by his 509 extra rushing yards and 23 additional explosive runs. Those factors should more than offset the discrepancy in turnover metrics.
Cousins’ extension, a one-year, $35 million deal had an APY that 16.81% of the salary cap that year. The equivalent in 2026 would be roughly $50.5 million. And that’s where I think Mayfield’s current value lies.
Good post, although I believe the value will be between 50 and 55. Inflation continues to grow every time we post.😁
the outlier.
8 games at the end of injury riddled and OC fired 2025. Statistically speaking.
That is sort of the JC way lol.
I get the point though, its where he last was so where he starts, but in terms of what he should be its definitely more reasonable to look at his entire Bucs tenure.
Or at least to account for the fact that he was in MVP territory right before your subset of games from 2025.
Who knows though? We will all see soon enough.
his 2025 season in full, albeit his worst as a Buc, was closer to 2023. 2024 was the outlier
There is an thread filled with angst when it was reported Mayfield might get $40 million a few years ago. That turned out okay.
Here's Josh Q now saying $50 million:
What Would A Possible Extension Look Like?
The $40 million salary this year works as the basement floor for a potential extension.
***
A . . . comp . . would be Kirk Cousins’ 2022 deal with the Minnesota Vikings. Cousins was coming off of a two-year stretch where he completed 67% of his passes for 8,486 yards and 68 touchdowns to just 20 interceptions while averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. He also had 54 big time throws to 36 turnover-worthy plays per Pro Football Focus.
Mayfield’s production since 2024 is very close to those marks. He’s completed 68% of his passes for 8,378 yards and 69 touchdowns to 27 interceptions while averaging 7.4 yards per attempt. He’s also thrown 50 big time throws to 53 turnover-worthy plays (turnover-worthy plays include fumbles).
Mayfield has a few other factors helping to set him above Cousins in terms of valuation. Mayfield is 2.5 years younger than Cousins was at the time of his 2022 extension and he is a bigger rushing threat as evidenced by his 509 extra rushing yards and 23 additional explosive runs. Those factors should more than offset the discrepancy in turnover metrics.
Cousins’ extension, a one-year, $35 million deal had an APY that 16.81% of the salary cap that year. The equivalent in 2026 would be roughly $50.5 million. And that’s where I think Mayfield’s current value lies.
Good post, although I believe the value will be between 50 and 55. Inflation continues to grow every time we post.😁
yeah $40M is not even close
if he is in the Goff, Love, Purdy, Lawrence, Hurts tier which i think he is, they all got 50m+ per year.
the outlier.
8 games at the end of injury riddled and OC fired 2025. Statistically speaking.
That is sort of the JC way lol.
I get the point though, its where he last was so where he starts, but in terms of what he should be its definitely more reasonable to look at his entire Bucs tenure.
Or at least to account for the fact that he was in MVP territory right before your subset of games from 2025.
Who knows though? We will all see soon enough.
his 2025 season in full, albeit his worst as a Buc, was closer to 2023. 2024 was the outlier
Yes, a QB between 2023/2025 and 2024 is probably just over 4,000 yards 30 TDs and 12 INTs? something like that. That is a potential (big word) playoff and maybe even SB QB depending on the play of the other units.
A 2023 version of Mayfield probably about the same (playoffs) because recall that 2023 run game was putrid compared to 2024.
So, better run game, special teams and defense (hopefully) they are a playoff team. That is probably exactly the thought process of the Glazers and Licht and Arians in keeping Bowles
schefter
“[I] think about $50 million a year. That’s my projection for where a potential Baker Mayfield deal could come in,” Schefter said. “Maybe not as much as he wants, maybe more than the Bucs would be wanting to pay. But there’s a compromise in there for both sides that I think would like to work out a deal.”
in 2024, the offense ranked 4th. In 2023, it ranked 20th. you tell me which season was the outlier.
his 2025 season in full, albeit his worst as a Buc, was closer to 2023. 2024 was the outlier
Yeah, 2024 is the outlier - not just for his time in Tampa, but for his entire career. It was his only year in his career over 30 TD's (way over with 41 TD's), over 70 comp % (71.4%), and over 100 QB Rating (106.8). He also had a career high in yards.
2023 & 2025 are damn-near identical:
2023: 4,044 yards, 28 TD's, 10 Int, 64.3 comp%, and 94.6 QB Rating
2025: 3,693 yards, 26 TD's, 11 Int, 63.2 comp%, and 90.6 QB Rating
in 2024, the offense ranked 4th. In 2023, it ranked 20th. you tell me which season was the outlier.
his 2025 season in full, albeit his worst as a Buc, was closer to 2023. 2024 was the outlier
Yeah, 2024 is the outlier - not just for his time in Tampa, but for his entire career. It was his only year in his career over 30 TD's (way over with 41 TD's), over 70 comp % (71.4%), and over 100 QB Rating (106.8). He also had a career high in yards.
2023 & 2025 are damn-near identical:
2023: 4,044 yards, 28 TD's, 10 Int, 64.3 comp%, and 94.6 QB Rating
2025: 3,693 yards, 26 TD's, 11 Int, 63.2 comp%, and 90.6 QB Rating
If you are trying to say you dont expect him to repeat 2024 that is (of course) a different point entirely
in 2024, the offense ranked 4th. In 2023, it ranked 20th. you tell me which season was the outlier.
his 2025 season in full, albeit his worst as a Buc, was closer to 2023. 2024 was the outlier
Yeah, 2024 is the outlier - not just for his time in Tampa, but for his entire career. It was his only year in his career over 30 TD's (way over with 41 TD's), over 70 comp % (71.4%), and over 100 QB Rating (106.8). He also had a career high in yards.
2023 & 2025 are damn-near identical:
2023: 4,044 yards, 28 TD's, 10 Int, 64.3 comp%, and 94.6 QB Rating
2025: 3,693 yards, 26 TD's, 11 Int, 63.2 comp%, and 90.6 QB Rating
If you are trying to say you dont expect him to repeat 2024 that is (of course) a different point entirely
2024 is the QB we want. even then, we were only a 10 win team and if i recall, were sitting at 4-6 before making a run against weaker competition. (Something we all thought was a foregone conclusion in 2025)
While 41 TDs was inflated by a 5 TD performance in week 17 against Carolina, there's no doubt, we want him to at least break 30 TDs. Heck, if he had 4 more TDs during the putrid stretch last year, this team may be 11-6
L 24-20 to New Orleans
L 29-28 to ATL
L 23-20 to CAR
L20-17 to Miami
not saying they all would happen in those games but INTs instead of TDs was a big reason going 8-9 instead of 11-6
if he had 4 more TDs during the putrid stretch last year, this team may be 11-6
L 24-20 to New Orleans
L 29-28 to ATL
L 23-20 to CAR
L20-17 to Miami
not saying they all would happen in those games but INTs instead of TDs was a big reason going 8-9 instead of 11-6
The Atlanta game is undeniably on the defense lol, but here's another way to look at those games.
In each of the game besides Atlanta the Bucs opened with a long successful TD drives and then faltered.
Against NO the first drive is 12 plays 62 yards for a TD.
In the Carolina game its 12 plays 53 yards for a TD.
In the Miami game its 15 plays for 68 yards and TD.
In the Atlanta game we punted on the 1st drive but the 2nd drive was 13 plays 78 yards and TD
That PATTERN suggest an OC who does not know how to call an offense in the live game. He knows how to script a first series, but then on the fly cant string calls together.
Further proof of that theory might be that the 2025 Bucs were almost the worst 4th quarter scoring team in the NFL with only 4.8 pts average. A year earlier they were almost the best in the league in the 4th quarter and nearly DOUBLED the 2025 production with 8.6 points average.
Some of the 2024 to 2025 4th qtr difference in scoring is RUN GAME, but a big part of that is just that Grizz was not a very good live action play caller.
Bowles even alluded to this saying Grizz would put together good stuff during the week but for whatever reason it wouldnt come out during the game. Bowles said that Grizz needed maybe 2 ore 3 years more experience.
So not excusing Mayfield and he has INT in those games, but they are also games where the offense as a whole is often struggling/ 20 points, 20 points and 17 points all below average. in a season that was already a TD per game worse than 2024. The offense sucked OVERALL. Injuries, no run game, and play calling. And mayfield late unable to overcome it and contributing to it..
Won more than we lost the last 3 years. And the defensive talent is better than we’ve had the last 4 years.3 year deal would be great. He isn't a true pocket QB so the idea of watching him run around at 37 or 38 and getting killed isn't something I see being successful
Don't see any options if you want to keep winning.
we are winning now?
And an OC that aligns with Baker’s talents, auditioning for the HC job?
Yes, I think we’re winning.
