so what it was his 3rd best season as a Buc . . .
It seems to be with Baker is that any time he started to get national media praise, or starts making commercials, he pisses down his leg.
Or, his 3rd best season as a Buc coincided with . . . .. his 3rd worst OC?
One "excuse". . . oops, way to see the point is to look at Josh Q's article today and the stats he references. Credit where due this is a point Fire makes often.
"Last year under Josh Grizzard, the Bucs ran on 42% of their second downs following a first down incompletion. Their EPA/play on all of those second downs (pass and runs combined) was -0.047 (21st in the NFL) and their success rate was 40% (15th). Those metrics should improve in 2026.
New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson had one of the best offenses in football in that specific situation. The Falcons ranked fourth in success rate in 2025 (51.61%) and 6th in EPA/play (+0.166) last year on second down following an incompletion. And there’s a good reason why. Robinson understands that running in that situation is tantamount to giving up the drive altogether.
And expanding to second-and-long (7+ yards) in general, the Falcons were 2nd in success rate (49.54%) and 9th in EPA/play (+.067), while the Bucs were 16th in success rate (41.26%) and 11th in EPA/play (+0.056), showing they hit some big plays, but struggled to consistently get the necessary yardage to stay on schedule"
Mayfield is not making that run/pass choice ^^^ . He's doing his best to execute it.
To get to some basic context, Grizz was a 58% pass on 2nd and 10 following an incompletion. Robinson was 83%, McVay 73%.
https://x.com/RyanPaganetti/status/2074630279226884125?s=20
To get to some basic context, Grizz was a 58% pass on 2nd and 10 following an incompletion. Robinson was 83%, McVay 73%.
interesting.
not sure how accurate this whole ChatGPT is but I asked % of time Bucs called a pass play on 2nd and 10
2023 - 71%
2024 -67%
2025 - 69%
i'm actually quite surprised Canales was the highest because i always remember him being pretty committed to run on first and second downs!
next excuse?
To get to some basic context, Grizz was a 58% pass on 2nd and 10 following an incompletion. Robinson was 83%, McVay 73%.
interesting.
not sure how accurate this whole ChatGPT is but I asked % of time Bucs called a pass play on 2nd and 10
2023 - 71%
2024 -67%
2025 - 69%
i'm actually quite surprised Canales was the highest because i always remember him being pretty committed to run on first and second downs!
next excuse?
next excuse can wait until you learn how to use ChatGPT prompts (kidding)
FWIW . . . its pass tendency on 2nd and 10 WHEN there was an incompletion on 1st down. And the link I provided is to a table of OCs "most likely to keep throwing" (ie to pass on 2nd down when 1st was incomplete) and you will see that Canales doesnt even make the list, not surprisingly. The lowest percentage on there is 35%
By the way, Cananles the play caller is no more. Izien taking over
i'm actually quite surprised Canales was the highest because i always remember him being pretty committed to run on first and second downs!
One of the many false narratives the loon tries to perpetuate.
To get to some basic context, Grizz was a 58% pass on 2nd and 10 following an incompletion. Robinson was 83%, McVay 73%.
interesting.
not sure how accurate this whole ChatGPT is but I asked % of time Bucs called a pass play on 2nd and 10
2023 - 71%
2024 -67%
2025 - 69%
i'm actually quite surprised Canales was the highest because i always remember him being pretty committed to run on first and second downs!
next excuse?
next excuse can wait until you learn how to use ChatGPT prompts (kidding)
FWIW . . . its pass tendency on 2nd and 10 WHEN there was an incompletion on 1st down. And the link I provided is to a table of OCs "most likely to keep throwing" (ie to pass on 2nd down when 1st was incomplete) and you will see that Canales doesnt even make the list, not surprisingly. The lowest percentage on there is 35%
By the way, Cananles the play caller is no more. Izien taking over
i kid you not, AI was like....ahhh...who the hell tracks that stat? Dead serious. give it a shot.
Canales the playcaller was no better than Grizzard the play caller; just had better injury luck i suppose. Coen really stood out.
Hopefully Robinson is closer to Coen than the other two.
Rick stroud saying baker got a 2 year offer and not even 50M + lmao
bucs brass likely better not to even address contract discussions 😂😂
they basically said you are Daniel jones
how could they come to that conclusion…..especially after his 2024 season….olaf? What did they see from 40 touchdown baker to now to essentially call him Daniel jones 😂
i kid you not, AI was like....ahhh...who the hell tracks that stat? Dead serious. give it a shot.
Lol I know, right? Football, the perfect sport for eggheads. And he even goes further, tracking its impact on EPA etc.
got a 2 year offer and not even 50M
I think Mayfield said that himself seemed like he was focused on the duration as much as the $, in terms of being "disrespectful."
how could they come to that conclusion…..especially after his 2024 season….olaf? What did they see from 40 touchdown baker to now to essentially call him Daniel jones
this is why people like Kirwan referenced the owners and the idea that maybe they are a little trapped by their "one last try" for Bowles.
how could they come to that conclusion…..especially after his 2024 season….olaf? What did they see from 40 touchdown baker to now to essentially call him Daniel jones
this is why people like Kirwan referenced the owners and the idea that maybe they are a little trapped by their "one last try" for Bowles.
and i ask you
if Baker threw for 32 touchdowns last year, Bucs win 10 games, lose in playoffs again....
is Baker not already extended on say a 4 year deal?
do they offer him a Daniel Jones type contract?
how could they come to that conclusion…..especially after his 2024 season….olaf? What did they see from 40 touchdown baker to now to essentially call him Daniel jones
this is why people like Kirwan referenced the owners and the idea that maybe they are a little trapped by their "one last try" for Bowles.
and i ask you
if Baker threw for 32 touchdowns last year, Bucs win 10 games, lose in playoffs again....
is Baker not already extended on say a 4 year deal?
do they offer him a Daniel Jones type contract?
Maybe but I am not sure that is as certain as you say. I mean, Mayfield ranted about the best LT in football and he had the team extend him early so yes maybe (even though he surely signed that contract Biggs lmao). But, we also know they say they didnt really call him Daniel Jones so what is real and what is s not?
The point I was trying to make about Kirwan though is Bowles staying on for another year has the Glazers and Arians fingerprints all over it, so its at least possible that they now realize that their internal "one more try" creates potential problems for the team if that try fails and there are a bunch of contracts out there that a new coach might not want.
Just like a new coach might not have been that easy to get in end of 2025 when there is uncertainty over team legends like LVD, Evans, Vea, Mayfield, Godwin etc. Some teams pull the bandaid off after success and do a quick retooling. Other do it the. Bucs way (really the Glazer way) which is a slow transition. The latter obviously makes it tougher to bring in new coaches if/when it all start to fall apart. Bowles was himself and INTERNAL (battlefield) promotion. Canales the only OIC candidate, Coen one and done., Grizz fired.
Rick stroud saying baker got a 2 year offer and not even 50M + lmao
This aged well per usual.
i like Rick Stroud. You attacking him now too.
that tweet was 21 hours ago, "Bucs were offering only a two year deal for less than $50M per year"
what's the update?
Figures you’d like a thin-skinned Nancy like Stroud.
It’s been widely reported since last night that it was over $50+ a year and it was practically fully guaranteed.
Far cry from the Daniel Jones comp you keep flicking your bean to.
how could they come to that conclusion…..especially after his 2024 season….olaf? What did they see from 40 touchdown baker to now to essentially call him Daniel jones
this is why people like Kirwan referenced the owners and the idea that maybe they are a little trapped by their "one last try" for Bowles.
and i ask you
if Baker threw for 32 touchdowns last year, Bucs win 10 games, lose in playoffs again....
is Baker not already extended on say a 4 year deal?
do they offer him a Daniel Jones type contract?
Maybe but I am not sure that is as certain as you say. I mean, Mayfield ranted about the best LT in football and he had the team extend him early so yes maybe (even though he surely signed that contract Biggs lmao). But, we also know they say they didnt really call him Daniel Jones so what is real and what is s not?
I thought Bucs treated Wirfs, a future hall of famer, pretty good with the new contract. Also, what did Wirfs, miss the voluntrary offseason workouts? i dont recall but doesn't really fit Baker's narrative.
and lol what? yeah they didnt call him Daniel Jones....not through words....but through actions Olaf....actions
and yes, if played just a tad better, 6 TDs better let's call it, he's already under contract. These are assumptions and theories...just like you have with his injury, grizz, and offensive line theory.
