i mean, if they know for sure he's the 2024 guy, why aren't think inking him to a 5 year, 250 deal right now....a no brainer
Oh.
I wasn’t aware that contract negotiations for NFL QB’s happened so quickly.
But, as you said, I’m sure they’re waiting for Q1 of 2027 to extend him (despite the fact he’ll be a FA).
Pay the man. He won’t get cheaper, and you don’t have on the roster, or available in FA, or in an upcoming draft, that produce what he’s producing.
Give him a competent OC and a defense and he moves the ball consistently, can make every throw, can get out of trouble, and can win games on his own. He’s proven himself. Is he perfect? No. But he makes us competitive and has not been the problem.
i mean, if they know for sure he's the 2024 guy, why aren't think inking him to a 5 year, 250 deal right now....a no brainer
Oh.
I wasn’t aware that contract negotiations for NFL QB’s happened so quickly.
But, as you said, I’m sure they’re waiting for Q1 of 2027 to extend him (despite the fact he’ll be a FA).
that would be the prudent thing to do
1. They have franchise tag at their disposal
2. They get another year to see what Baker Mayfield is -
A. the non good starter quality he has been in Cleveland, second half of 2025.
B. the hall of famer he was in 2024
C. the above average guy he was in 2023, first half of 2025.
So if he's B, they can gladly sign him to that 5 year deal, $250M.
If he's C, they likely opt for more of a 3 year type situation, maybe slight raise $120M. In this scenario, they also have the franchise tag at their disposal. I think if he's more just above average, they might also consider taking a QB high, talking first or second round, in either 2027 or 2028 drafts.
If he's A, there's a scenario where they don't sign him at all. For this to happen, i am thinking he regresses off of last year's stats, talking like maybe 22 touchdown passes and 14 INTs type year. In this scenario, the Bucs likely did not perform well and will be cleaning house anyway. 6-11 record and maybe starting over.
3. Let's live in a world where the franchise tag doesn't exist and Baker performs to a point where he's 2024, first half 2025 type guy, would Baker leave the situation he is currently in for what's likely to be wanting his services as 2027 starter? Let's run down teams that might want Baker in 2027 - the entire NFC South, maybe the Cardinals and Vikings, maybe the Jets, Dolphins, and Colts. I'm pretty sure we'd be able to get a deal down
so to my point, i am failing to see a scenario, given how he finished last year, why the Bucs brass, you or I, would feel comfortable inking Baker to a 5 year, 250M deal sitting here in May 2026. I think it's very likely he's our QB next season and beyond, but unless you are thinking we are going to get Baker at a discount inking him now, i dont understand how anyone would want him extended now and not take a wait and see approach and it's likely the Bucs will do.
like he is at 3 year, 100M deal now. just so i understand the context of this discussion, what are you suggesting you'd be happy the Bucs giving him in terms of years and amount as we sit here in May 2026.
Pay the man. He won’t get cheaper, and you don’t have on the roster, or available in FA, or in an upcoming draft, that produce what he’s producing.
Give him a competent OC and a defense and he moves the ball consistently, can make every throw, can get out of trouble, and can win games on his own. He’s proven himself. Is he perfect? No. But he makes us competitive and has not been the problem.
what are you suggesting in terms of years and amount?
Baker Mayfield final 11 games of 2025 season. This was after magical 5-1 start and MVP talks.
- Bucs would go 3-8 in that span
- Baker would average 196 passing yards per game and the team 20 points per game
- Baker threw 14 TD and 10 INTs; you pro-rate this 17 games and he is at 22 TD, 15 INTs, 3300 passing yards. Likely not getting another contract with Bucs if this is what he does in 2026.
- The Rams injury happened in game 5 of this anemic stretch. So if we just want to include the 4 games prior, he averaged 206 yards per game, the team 22 points per game, 5 TDs, 2 INTs with 3 of them coming in one game.
Point is that 11 games is a large enough sample size of a 17 game season, the same stretch where the team collapsed, for the Bucs to give pause as to the crux of the issue. Easy to blame injuries but very confusing when they all get healthy and the losses happen to teams you are favored against.
Can you pro rate the injuries to the starting tackles and the starting WR, and RB?
I believe we lost of every starter except Barton in that span, right,
Sorry. To me, thats just shlocky analysis.
Baker was tenderized before the Detroit game, he was butchered after.
Can you pro rate the injuries to the starting tackles and the starting WR, and RB?
I believe we lost of every starter except Barton in that span, right,
Sorry. To me, thats just shlocky analysis.
Baker was tenderized before the Detroit game, he was butchered after.
understood so you are running the Buccaneers. Just got promoted.
What are you signing Baker to in terms of years and amounts?
as to why the extension will likely be done in Q1 2027 time frame.
So, explain how this “extension” would work considering he’d be a free agent.
as to why the extension will likely be done in Q1 2027 time frame.
So, explain how this “extension” would work considering he’d be a free agent.
lol. GOT ME CUZ...look at you
i am suggesting no extension and just extend a contact offer to him next year depending on how he plays
so to my point, what are you giving him years and amounts today?
Well, AI says that you have a proven 31 y/o starting quality QB, which by my reckoning is hard to come by in the NFL, but not quite Prescott-level performance.
Market is between $43m (for a bargain, Darnold got $45m) to $57m (just under Dak’s).
My guess with, AI reference, and the owner having said “when the quarterback is playing well, it’s easy writing checks”, maybe infers you could sign Baker for 3 years, $153m (average of $51m). If Baker has a good season that number could rise.
lol. GOT ME CUZ...look at you
No worries, bud. We all knew you had no idea what you were talking about.
i am suggesting no extension and just extend a contact offer to him next year depending on how he plays
Awesome idea. So, if he plays lights out, we just pissed away any kind of a discount.
Oh, and that's even if he's want to play here beyond this year.
so to my point, what are you giving him years and amounts today?
Well, first thing's first:
- I'm trying to trade Godwin by the deadline, otherwise, designate his as a Post-June cut next offseason
- Don't re-sign Vea
- Try and trade or restructure Zyon
- Let Diaby walk in FA
I'd offer Baker an extension of 4-years, $180M, with $110M of it guaranteed.
Structured to give us a potential out in the 3rd year.
It seems a bit low, and a little leveraged towards the team, but plays off of the psychology that’s it’s similar to Darnold’s deal, and the guaranteed money makes it a fair offer.lol. GOT ME CUZ...look at you
No worries, bud. We all knew you had no idea what you were talking about.
i am suggesting no extension and just extend a contact offer to him next year depending on how he plays
Awesome idea. So, if he plays lights out, we just pissed away any kind of a discount.
Oh, and that's even if he's want to play here beyond this year.
so to my point, what are you giving him years and amounts today?
Well, first thing's first:
- I'm trying to trade Godwin by the deadline, otherwise, designate his as a Post-June cut next offseason
- Don't re-sign Vea
- Try and trade or restructure Zyon
- Let Diaby walk in FA
I'd offer Baker an extension of 4-years, $180M, with $110M of it guaranteed.
Structured to give us a potential out in the 3rd year.
I’d guess it’s a little closer to $50m, but it’s structured well. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I never understood the idea of undervaluing a proven quality NFL starting QB, give him a chance to prove himself, and then give him access to the market.
Signing early is as much to the teams benefit as it is to the QB that you have no replacement fall-back plan to capitalize on whatever team you’ve already assembled?
But, good to hear alternate opinions.
It seems a bit low,
In what way?
In terms of AAY, it puts him just outside of the Top-10.
In terms of guarantee money, it puts him just outside of the Top-10.
And, that's not taking into account his age and playing style.
It seems a bit low,
In what way?
In terms of AAY, it puts him just outside of the Top-10.
In terms of guarantee money, it puts him just outside of the Top-10.
And, that's not taking into account his age and playing style.
I said it was fair deal! …to me, if I’m Baker, my signing early benefits the team more than me. I’ve given a “prove it” deal, I yielded on a beneficial deal, this time I can leverage a little more, which could be my last significant deal, so I do.
I don’t know he will do that, but it’s the angle I’d approach. Depends on how much better Baker is to the Bucs than Sam Darnold is to the Seahawks.
I actually think Baker is loyal and appreciates the loyalty to him and the team that’s been assembled around him. He may sign for $45m, his value is $50m (+), maybe he signs for an AAV of $48m - $50m.
The age thing likely works both ways.
However, performance from 2025 skews the numbers a bit to the negative side, so it favors not going for the ceiling of what’s available. Somewhere between $45m and $50m is my guess.
They can (prefer?) probably achieve the “extra” via incentives.