Well, AI says that you have a proven 31 y/o starting quality QB, which by my reckoning is hard to come by in the NFL, but not quite Prescott-level performance.
Market is between $43m (for a bargain, Darnold got $45m) to $57m (just under Dak’s).
My guess with, AI reference, and the owner having said “when the quarterback is playing well, it’s easy writing checks”, maybe infers you could sign Baker for 3 years, $153m (average of $51m). If Baker has a good season that number could rise.
so today you would offer baker that contract? 3 years, $153M
and your comment that it could rise. Certainly true if he throws 40+ TDs. But could also go down by the same token if he throws 22 TDs
lol. GOT ME CUZ...look at you
No worries, bud. We all knew you had no idea what you were talking about.
i am suggesting no extension and just extend a contact offer to him next year depending on how he plays
Awesome idea. So, if he plays lights out, we just pissed away any kind of a discount.
Oh, and that's even if he's want to play here beyond this year.
so to my point, what are you giving him years and amounts today?
Well, first thing's first:
- I'm trying to trade Godwin by the deadline, otherwise, designate his as a Post-June cut next offseason
- Don't re-sign Vea
- Try and trade or restructure Zyon
- Let Diaby walk in FA
I'd offer Baker an extension of 4-years, $180M, with $110M of it guaranteed.
Structured to give us a potential out in the 3rd year.
$45m a year. That would put him at like 15 in QB contracts given out recently. That’s kind of where he ranks currently.
wonder if Bakers camp would take that or suggest 4 years, $220M given what he’s capable of
Your head is where Bucs brass is likely at. Baker likely wanting it to start with a $2 handle on total value
I suppose time will tell my friend
It seems a bit low, and a little leveraged towards the team, but plays off of the psychology that’s it’s similar to Darnold’s deal, and the guaranteed money makes it a fair offer.lol. GOT ME CUZ...look at you
No worries, bud. We all knew you had no idea what you were talking about.
i am suggesting no extension and just extend a contact offer to him next year depending on how he plays
Awesome idea. So, if he plays lights out, we just pissed away any kind of a discount.
Oh, and that's even if he's want to play here beyond this year.
so to my point, what are you giving him years and amounts today?
Well, first thing's first:
- I'm trying to trade Godwin by the deadline, otherwise, designate his as a Post-June cut next offseason
- Don't re-sign Vea
- Try and trade or restructure Zyon
- Let Diaby walk in FA
I'd offer Baker an extension of 4-years, $180M, with $110M of it guaranteed.
Structured to give us a potential out in the 3rd year.
I’d guess it’s a little closer to $50m, but it’s structured well. Will be interesting to see how it plays out.
I never understood the idea of undervaluing a proven quality NFL starting QB, give him a chance to prove himself, and then give him access to the market.
Signing early is as much to the teams benefit as it is to the QB that you have no replacement fall-back plan to capitalize on whatever team you’ve already assembled?
But, good to hear alternate opinions.
baker is proven? This is the argument as to why I say wait
let’s look at some comments:
1. baker in Cleveland with solid WR core was mediocre to ass. His last year was blamed on injury and he was nearly out of the league until Tampa gave him a chance
2. he put up top 10 numbers in 2023 and entered 2024 as a top 15 guys by all respects. He earned a 3 year, 100M deal
3. with elite play caller, he put up top 5 numbers in 2024 and entered 2025 as a top 10 guys. This is where everyone’s head is at on potential
4. With bad play caller, injuries to team, and once again blaming his injury on play, he was mediocre to ass for majority of the season. He put up top 15 numbers and enters season as top 15/20 guy. A regression by all accounts
when considering to dish out a $200M deal and commit to a guy the next 3 years, I’d hardly suggest baker has earned it given 2025 performance. They’d be wise to see how he performs in 2026
if he continues his regression and throws 22 tds, 15 INTs with 6-11 Bucs record, how are you feeling about that premature extension
if he throws 40 TDs again, Bucs go 11-6 and they have to now give him a 4 year, $220M deal instead of 4 years, $200m a year prior, how are you feeling?
No brainer to let the unproven QB continue to prove himself. Keep that chip on his shoulder
wonder if Bakers camp would take that or suggest 4 years, $220M given what he’s capable of
If that’s their rebuttal, then I politely shake their hands and wish them the best.
Fast forward 2 weeks, I’ll be just as cordial when they come back to the table, after testing FA.
wonder if Bakers camp would take that or suggest 4 years, $220M given what he’s capable of
If that’s their rebuttal, then I politely shake their hands and wish them the best.
Fast forward 2 weeks, I’ll be just as cordial when they come back to the table, after testing FA.
yeah i have no issue with the offer of 4 years, $180M but i am just thinking that would be more Baker's floor (in his eyes). I don't think he would accept that before the season as he would likely bet in himself that he is better than what he showed last year.
Recent Contracts
- Lamar Jackson — 5 yrs, $260M (≈ $52M/year)
- Jalen Hurts — 5 yrs, $255M (≈ $51M/year)
- Justin Herbert — 5 yrs, $262.5M (≈ $52.5M/year)
- Joe Burrow — 5 yrs, $275M (≈ $55M/year)
- Trevor Lawrence — 5 yrs, ~$275M (≈ $55M/year)
- Jordan Love — 4 yrs, $220M (≈ $55M/year)
- Jared Goff — 4 yrs, $212M (≈ $53M/year)
- Brock Purdy — 5 yrs, $265M (≈ $53M/year)
Baker's camp most likely is eying these numbers per year. And if i'm the Bucs, i am not ready to commit to him that much without him rebounding this year.
If he performs at 2024 levels, and we keep Robinson around (assuming such progress, we cant possibly let another prodigy out the building, could we?), i think we wouldn't bat an eye to give him 4 years, $220M or 5 years, $275M.
that's a big IF though
Baker's been in this league 8 years
4 years in Cleveland - 2 of which were decent and 2 terrible
1 year as practice squad defensive player for Carolina, couple good games with Rams but his days as starter were numbered
3 years in Tampa - 1 would categorize as good, 1 would categorize as Hall of Fame Caliber, and 1 would categorize as decent which was the last year. Last year, was arguably worse then his rookie season and third season in Cleveland. It's very close but the fact that is is debatable is not what we envision for our franchise QB.
so very clear that 1 season, the Hall of Fame season, is the outlier. It's that type of season to me that's worth 50+ million per year, despite guys like Purdy, Goff, Love, and Lawrence all setting the new rate for top 15 QBs.
If Baker is closer to the "decent" years which would categorize in 50% of his time in the league, then we might just have to bite the bullet as that's the new rate for "top 15" QBs but i certainly wouldn't be in a rush about it, meaning let's see what this year brings.
Like i said, he performs at 2024 levels and we are feeling good about the 4-5 year deal he gets in February. He performs at 2023/2025 levels, and we are likely "ehh" about the 4 year deal he gets at 50M+. Like clearly we could do worse than Baker, but he is not going to really carry a team and means you need to really hit on draft picks and have defense/run game to help support - view Darnold with Seattle. That's a big ask if given Licht/Bowles track record of "MID"
The other scenario which i still think is possible, despite being a low possibility, is that the QB we saw the last 11 games is actually the current Baker Mayfield and thats closer to his 2 shit years in Cleveland. in that scenario, we would be foolish to resign him.
is that the QB we saw the last 11 games is actually the current Baker Mayfield and thats closer to his 2 shit years in Cleveland.
Wild to me that you continue to intentionally ignore how injured he was through that stretch.
Recent Contracts
- Lamar Jackson — 5 yrs, $260M (≈ $52M/year)
- Jalen Hurts — 5 yrs, $255M (≈ $51M/year)
- Justin Herbert — 5 yrs, $262.5M (≈ $52.5M/year)
- Joe Burrow — 5 yrs, $275M (≈ $55M/year)
- Trevor Lawrence — 5 yrs, ~$275M (≈ $55M/year)
- Jordan Love — 4 yrs, $220M (≈ $55M/year)
- Jared Goff — 4 yrs, $212M (≈ $53M/year)
- Brock Purdy — 5 yrs, $265M (≈ $53M/year)
Baker's camp most likely is eying these numbers per year.
Good for them if that’s the case.
If he’s as good as these guys, he’ll clearly have no problem in FA.
Right?
Why do you want your only starting caliber QB, to test the market?
There is no animosity on either side, both sides like and respect the other, if tge team & the QB are amenable to an early negotiation, then you move forward.
Taking a hardline at this point leaves you with a QB who doesn’t think you’re showing good faith and is likely to test FA…both sides seem to want a deal. I don’t think the team wants him to get close to free agency, the player wants to lock down security. Strike while there’s goodwill.
It’s not Like we have an heir apparent waiting in the wings, and we didn’t add FA’s and draft picks to tank the season for a crack at any of the QB’s at the top of the 2027 draft. So I think we can determine that the team wants to work out a good/fair deal.
Whether that’s $45m, $48m or 51m is up to how much value they see in Baker - and how much Baker values the team they built around him.
Seems to me that you’ve made the case that the market range is set, the valuation in the range is the negotiation, as well as the terms. I think DH came up with something that looks valid - a 4 year deal with a low cost opt-out for the final year.
Why do you want your only starting caliber QB, to test the market?
Because I’m not offering him a 5-yr, $250M+ deal as the starting price point.
The deal I presented in my scenario was more than fair, and market value for player like him.
Him and his team want more?
Great! Go see if you can get it.
This isn’t our first rodeo with him.
At this point I just do not understand the rush. I don't want echoes of Licht here if we have to cut bait after this year.
Assume we give Baker a huge deal but Bucs win 7 games and miss the playoffs... Then what?
Then we cut Licht and Bowles and are stuck with a huge Baker contract.
This makes no sense to me. Plus if Baker is on a contract year deal you get that bump in play to prove it.
Think of Winfield before and after he got paid.
They probably prefer to have something done vs not because who else is out there that could or we know for sure could compete at the level or above Mayfield. Im sure someone knows better than me about that. I just don't know of anyone worth looking at if we cant resign baker. Probably starting over if we can't sign him. Which would be ok if bowles is going too.
At this point I just do not understand the rush.
Because you either know he’s your guy or you don’t.
If he is, extend him now, and get a better price.
Would be stupid to wait.
Should have been more specific. That question was directed at Badabing.Why do you want your only starting caliber QB, to test the market?
Because I’m not offering him a 5-yr, $250M+ deal as the starting price point.
The deal I presented in my scenario was more than fair, and market value for player like him.
Him and his team want more?
Great! Go see if you can get it.
This isn’t our first rodeo with him.
However, while the package was a fair starting point, I still think the total package, for 4 years is low. The team is likely to want a void year, and the valuation may end up higher.
As you point out, the player has to understand, his relative age, and the most recent season has to factored-in, his playing style, and offensive investments, are part of the rationale.
Does Licht’s preference for one year deals extend to QB’s? Maybe that brings it to a 3 year deal for $153 to $155?
I’m no financial analyst, but I’d think somewhere between your option & $157 is close & would set up deal before TC.
At this point I just do not understand the rush.
Because you either know he’s your guy or you don’t.
If he is, extend him now, and get a better price.
Would be stupid to wait.
If we pay him and we are right we are saving what, 10-15m/year?
If we pay him and we are wrong we are stuck with a marginally decent QB until age 36/37 with probably 2 of those years being in decline.
If we wait to pay him and we are right we could sign him for cheap or let him walk and leave the new GM/HC options.
If we wait to pay him and we are wrong it costs us 10-15m/year and we could either franchise him or pay a premium.
To me, juice ain't worth the squeeze all things considered.
Isnt possible Mayfield sees FA as his way out? Team falling apart but play his best and hit FA to go wherever or team gets better, stay.