Thursday night's win in Dallas felt enormous. And it was. But one win does not fix everything, and the Pittsburgh Steelers arriving at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday represent a genuine step up in competition from a Cowboys team that played one of the worst games of the season. The Steelers are 3-2, playing with confidence, and coming off a 34-22 win over the Colts in which Aaron Rodgers threw three more touchdown passes. Rodgers has thrown three touchdowns in each of his last three games, and this high-powered unit has scored at least 30 points in two of its last three outings. This is not Dallas. Here is how both teams set themselves up for victory Sunday.
BUCS WIN IF...
Bucs on Offense: Build on Dallas, Establish the Run Early
The most encouraging development from Thursday night was not the final score. It was Bucky Irving rushing for 165 yards behind a combination of wide zone and gap schemes that finally clicked the way Zac Robinson drew it up. The Buccaneers are averaging 133 rushing yards per game through five weeks, ranking seventh in the NFL. A number that reflects a running game with genuine identity when the offensive coordinator commits to the scheme. Building on that against Pittsburgh is priority number one on Sunday.
With Baker Mayfield's thumb keeping him out for another week, Jalon Daniels needs to do exactly what he did in Dallas: manage the game, protect the football, take the quick reads Robinson designs for him, and let the running game do the heavy lifting. Pittsburgh will have more answers to counter the Buccaneers' passing game than Dallas did, which makes the run game a necessity on Sunday.
The one area where Daniels needs to improve from Dallas is his willingness to let go of the ball on time. The Buccaneers rank 30th in the NFL in sack rate, which is an ugly number that reflects both the offensive line's struggles and a quarterback who holds the ball longer than the play design calls for. Against T.J. Watt, who recently became the second-fastest player in NFL history to reach 100 career sacks, holding the ball too long is not an option. Get it out. Trust the design. Stay upright.
Bucs on Defense: Contain Rodgers' Quick Release and Stop Freiermuth and Washington
Tampa Bay has been solid defensively, and is one of just seven teams allowing fewer than 300 yards of offense per game through five weeks.
The Buccaneers' run defense is allowing only 3.3 yards per carry, second fewest in the league. Pittsburgh will deploy heavy 12 and even 13 personnel packages with tight ends Darnell Washington, Pat Freiermuth, and Robert Tonyan as extra blockers to help establish the run. The Buccaneers need to win that battle up front.
But Aaron Rodgers is a different challenge than anyone this defense has faced in 2026. Rodgers is a master at getting rid of the ball quickly to avoid pressure, though he has been sacked 14 times already this season, and pressure coming directly up the middle has been the most disruptive against him. That is the blueprint. Kancey, Vea, and A'Shawn Robinson need to collapse the interior pocket before Rodgers can find his rhythm. Win the A and B gaps. Make him uncomfortable from inside out rather than simply trying to loop around the edges.
Get a few stops on third down. Force a couple of Rodgers impatience throws. Convert the turnovers when they come. That is the formula.
STEELERS WIN IF...
Steelers on Offense: Rodgers Gets Hot and Warren Explodes Again
Jaylen Warren has been playing some of the best football of his career recently, recording 188 yards from scrimmage in the most recent game that included an 80-yard touchdown catch and a 50-yard touchdown run. If Warren finds the same kind of explosive production against a Buccaneers defense that ranks second in run defense, Pittsburgh's offense becomes nearly impossible to stop. A balanced attack of Warren's explosiveness and Rodgers' efficiency gives the Buccaneers' defense problems it has not yet seen in 2026.
Aaron Rodgers is at his best when defenses play soft coverage underneath and invite him to dissect them with precision throws to the intermediate level. Let him settle in, find his rhythm with Freiermuth and Washington over the middle, and this could be a very long afternoon for Tampa Bay's secondary.
Pittsburgh's offense has improved significantly since a slow start, now averaging just under 30 points per game and raising its per-carry average from 3.4 yards to 4.7. A team trending in that direction coming to town is not a comfortable matchup for a 1-4 home team trying to build momentum.
Steelers on Defense: Make Daniels Beat You Vertically
Pittsburgh’s defense is going to test Daniels early with disguised pressures and coverage rotations designed to create confusion before the snap. If Daniels cannot get comfortable quickly, if the offensive line cannot pick up Pittsburgh's blitz packages, and if T.J. Watt gets loose off the edge, this game could mirror the ugliness of the first four weeks very quickly.
The Steelers' defense is quietly solid, allowing the 10th-fewest points per game in the NFL and ranking seventh in third down defense. If the Steelers can slow Bucky Irving, force Daniels to win the game through the air, and get Watt in the backfield early, the Buccaneers' offense is going to have a very difficult afternoon.
FINAL WORD
This is the game that tells us whether Thursday night in Dallas was the beginning of something real or a one-week outlier against an opponent having its worst game of the season. The Steelers are a legitimate 3-2 football team with a Hall of Fame quarterback on a hot streak, an explosive backfield weapon in Jaylen Warren, and a defensive front headlined by arguably the best edge rusher in the NFL.
The Buccaneers need to run the football, protect Daniels from Watt, stop the tight ends over the middle, and hope that Aaron Rodgers' impatience generates a critical turnover or two at the right moment.
It is a tall order. But so was Dallas.
Prediction: Bucs WIN 23-20
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great post
Steelers try to carve up Bucs with underneath stuff (assuming Bucs can stop their run, hopefully)
and Bucs offense has to find a way to stretch the field (hopefully early, not late because the run game is working).
Could easily be a game where the Bucs offense is stuck in neutral because we can get a run game going against their front and cant throw the ball more than 5 yards down the filed.
Steelers are going to try to stop Irving on first down and force 2nd and 8 or 9 and keep Daniels in the pocket when it's 2nd and 9 or 3rd and 6. Then the inexperienced Daniels will eventually make mistakes and they'll get interceptions. Get a couple of those and then the Bucs have to turn real conservative. The Steelers get the lead and the Bucs are getting gunshy. That's the ideal situation for the Steelers. Stop Bucky on the early downs and you force the Bucs out of their comfort zone.
For the Bucs of course it's the exact opposite on offense. They need to get Bucky to get five yards on first down, then that opens up a lot of options and you keep Daniels out of a lot of obvious passing downs.
Speaking of options, why not have the QB option? Even if you only do it a two or three times in the game it forces the defense to account for the fact that Daniels might keep the ball and they can't sell out on a run up the middle.
Great write up as usual, ehinote.
Steelers - 23
Bucs - 14
FryingPanMuth to score a TD or the big fella they have.
Warren catches 6 balls.
Bowles oversells to stop the run.
Metcalf breaks free for a couple big chunk plays
Rodgers 230 and 2 TDs
Bucky gets bottled up but scores, we're forced to throw too much.
Only way we win this is +2 turnover battle
Steelers 20 Bucs 13
Only way we win this is +2 turnover battle
Agree with most of the other points as sort of a sarcastic take sort of grounded in current reality.
the Cowboys game should be mostly mirage but I guess we will see against the Steelers
Daniel’s going to struggle against Steelers defense
they win this game and we may have something here but Dallas D is vulnerable so I’d be surprised if we were able to put up the elusive 23 points required to win in this league
Daniel’s going to struggle against Steelers defense
they win this game and we may have something here but Dallas D is vulnerable so I’d be surprised if we were able to put up the elusive 23 points required to win in this league
I am more worried about the Bucs vaunted defense to be honest. But the offense will face some struggles against a very, very talented front seven.
I am more worried about the Bucs vaunted defense to be honest.
yep its a great matchup to see where the defense really stands
Defense has to finish with sacks if they want to be taken more seriously.
On offense, we have to see the Bucs skill position players slowly pick up their game and help out Daniels and Mayfield when he returns. The QB in this offensive system is a point guard and not supposed to try to do everything. So the skill players have to run clean routes, and make defenders miss for this offensive scheme to work.
So the skill players have to run clean routes, and make defenders miss for this offensive scheme to work
until they successfully stretch defenses I dont know how they succeed other than by the Cowboys game formula. They can do that consistently though because teams will just load the box, so have to find some way to stretch the field
Don't love using Tez on returns with his frame
Lmfao runrunpass shit punt
Well picking up blitzes is still a problem obviously.
