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Week 6: Bucs Win If / Steelers Win If

ehinote · 2026-10-17T12:43:39Z

Thursday night's win in Dallas felt enormous. And it was. But one win does not fix everything, and the Pittsburgh Steelers arriving at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday represent a genuine step up in competition from a Cowboys team that played one of the worst games of the season. The Steelers are 3-2, playing with confidence, and coming off a 34-22 win over the Colts in which Aaron Rodgers threw three more touchdown passes. Rodgers has thrown three touchdowns in each of his last three games, and this high-powered unit has scored at least 30 points in two of its last three outings. This is not Dallas. Here is how both teams set themselves up for victory Sunday. BUCS WIN IF...Bucs on Offense: Build on Dallas, Establish the Run EarlyThe most encouraging development from Thursday night was not the final score. It was Bucky Irving rushing for 165 yards behind a combination of wide zone and gap schemes that finally clicked the way Zac Robinson drew it up. The Buccaneers are averaging 133 rushing yards per game through five weeks, ranking seventh in the NFL. A number that reflects a running game with genuine identity when the offensive coordinator commits to the scheme. Building on that against Pittsburgh is priority number one on Sunday.With Baker Mayfield's thumb keeping him out for another week, Jalon Daniels needs to do exactly what he did in Dallas: manage the game, protect the football, take the quick reads Robinson designs for him, and let the running game do the heavy lifting. Pittsburgh will have more answers to counter the Buccaneers' passing game than Dallas did, which makes the run game a necessity on Sunday.The one area where Daniels needs to improve from Dallas is his willingness to let go of the ball on time. The Buccaneers rank 30th in the NFL in sack rate, which is an ugly number that reflects both the offensive line's struggles and a quarterback who holds the ball longer than the play design calls for. Against T.J. Watt, who recently became the second-fastest player in NFL history to reach 100 career sacks, holding the ball too long is not an option. Get it out. Trust the design. Stay upright.Bucs on Defense: Contain Rodgers' Quick Release and Stop Freiermuth and WashingtonTampa Bay has been solid defensively, and is one of just seven teams allowing fewer than 300 yards of offense per game through five weeks. The Buccaneers' run defense is allowing only 3.3 yards per carry, second fewest in the league. Pittsburgh will deploy heavy 12 and even 13 personnel packages with tight ends Darnell Washington, Pat Freiermuth, and Robert Tonyan as extra blockers to help establish the run. The Buccaneers need to win that battle up front.But Aaron Rodgers is a different challenge than anyone this defense has faced in 2026. Rodgers is a master at getting rid of the ball quickly to avoid pressure, though he has been sacked 14 times already this season, and pressure coming directly up the middle has been the most disruptive against him. That is the blueprint. Kancey, Vea, and A'Shawn Robinson need to collapse the interior pocket before Rodgers can find his rhythm. Win the A and B gaps. Make him uncomfortable from inside out rather than simply trying to loop around the edges.Get a few stops on third down. Force a couple of Rodgers impatience throws. Convert the turnovers when they come. That is the formula.STEELERS WIN IF...Steelers on Offense: Rodgers Gets Hot and Warren Explodes AgainJaylen Warren has been playing some of the best football of his career recently, recording 188 yards from scrimmage in the most recent game that included an 80-yard touchdown catch and a 50-yard touchdown run. If Warren finds the same kind of explosive production against a Buccaneers defense that ranks second in run defense, Pittsburgh's offense becomes nearly impossible to stop. A balanced attack of Warren's explosiveness and Rodgers' efficiency gives the Buccaneers' defense problems it has not yet seen in 2026.Aaron Rodgers is at his best when defenses play soft coverage underneath and invite him to dissect them with precision throws to the intermediate level. Let him settle in, find his rhythm with Freiermuth and Washington over the middle, and this could be a very long afternoon for Tampa Bay's secondary.Pittsburgh's offense has improved significantly since a slow start, now averaging just under 30 points per game and raising its per-carry average from 3.4 yards to 4.7. A team trending in that direction coming to town is not a comfortable matchup for a 1-4 home team trying to build momentum.Steelers on Defense: Make Daniels Beat You VerticallyPittsburgh’s defense is going to test Daniels early with disguised pressures and coverage rotations designed to create confusion before the snap. If Daniels cannot get comfortable quickly, if the offensive line cannot pick up Pittsburgh's blitz packages, and if T.J. Watt gets loose off the edge, this game could mirror the ugliness of the first four weeks very quickly.The Steelers' defense is...

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Biggs3535

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Posted by: @biggs3535

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Good effort by Daniels to not let Dean score and good job by the defense to hold the offense to a FG. I didn’t think the league had outlawed holding the opposing offense to a FG after a turnover.

Big play by Daniels and stop by the defense.

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:14 pm

Fire Derrangement Syndrome

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Posted by: @bucsbits

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Rookie gonna rookie. At least he got some of it back

He's been bad today but his play makers don't do him any favors

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:14 pm

Trask Force

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Daniels tackled Dean. That means for your fantasy team he got rushing, passing, receiving and tackle points.

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:14 pm

DEBUCSOWN

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Overtime

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:14 pm

OlafSnowfake

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Almost feel bad for the defense. Haven't been able to say that for a few seasons

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:17 pm

OlafSnowfake

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Posted by: @fire-derrangement-syndrome

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Posted by: @bucsbits

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Rookie gonna rookie. At least he got some of it back

He's been bad today but his play makers don't do him any favors

he just needs to stop trying to win on every play.

play caller not helping much either but you send everyone deep to let Otton leak out and he doesn't throw it to Otton

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:18 pm

Biggs3535

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The teams best pass rusher is still playing on ST. Good stuff.

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:21 pm

Fire Derrangement Syndrome

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Diaby did something! Now Kancey maybe?

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:22 pm

Fire Derrangement Syndrome

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Third down defense hasn't been great this half.

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:23 pm

Biggs3535

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Yet another QBP for Walker

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:23 pm

Biggs3535

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Scott has to get sticky on that.

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:24 pm

Fire Derrangement Syndrome

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How many times we gonna play soft zone off dk?

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:26 pm

Fire Derrangement Syndrome

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Anzalone tackling in space is masterclass in sucking

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:27 pm

m_j

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who has worse clock management? bowles or mccarthy?

anyway, bowles sold this game with his soft coverage once again. we‘re going to lose this

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:27 pm

Fire Derrangement Syndrome

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Lmfao Kancey on that first down power I is completely fooled by nothing

Posted : Oct. 18, 2026 4:28 pm

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Week 6: Bucs Win If / Steelers Win If

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