With most personnel moves finalized and OTAs underway, which NFC South team has made the most significant leap this offseason? Considering last year’s standings, coaching and front office changes, and new player acquisitions through free agency and the draft, which team appears poised for improvement as we head into the new season?
Let’s start from the bottom:
#4 – New Orleans Saints
This ranking may surprise some, but it makes sense to me. While the Saints ended last year positively, leading many fans and some media to herald Tyler Shough as their franchise quarterback, the worst outcome for a young team is to overhype a player based on limited potential. Shough performed adequately as a rookie, but that doesn’t raise his ceiling in my view. He came in with low expectations and met them, reminiscent of Chris Simms in 2005, when we anointed him as the starting quarterback the following year despite a lackluster performance.
Saints’ Head Coach Kellen Moore
Kellen Moore is a promising young coach, but I question his leadership. The Saints did add players like Travis Etienne Jr., Noah Fant, and Tyree Wilson in free agency, but none are superstars. I expect this team to fall short of expectations, proving they merely outperformed low expectations last season. Record: 6-11
#3 – Carolina Panthers
The Panthers boast young stars like Jaycee Horn, Derrick Brown, and Princely Amanmielen on defense, but I don’t believe their offense has the firepower to match. Tetairoa McMillan is on track to become a top-five receiver, which is concerning for Bucs fans who will see him twice a season for the next decade. However, I’m not high on Bryce Young as the quarterback who can elevate the team.
This team was a 2025 division champion largely because they played in the worst division in the NFL, marking the second time in four years that a team with a losing record won the NFC South. As a result, they’ll face a first-place schedule in 2026, which will significantly impact their path compared to their division rivals. I expect the Panthers to fall behind both the Bucs and Falcons. Record: 7-10
#2 – Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons slide into second place by default. The Saints are too young in key positions, and the Panthers will struggle with a first-place schedule. I don’t see much momentum for the Falcons heading into 2026. Kevin Stefanski, the new head coach, brings good football IQ, but I question his leadership. Who will be the quarterback? Michael Penix Jr. has yet to prove himself as a reliable NFL starter, and Tua Tagovailoa raises concerns due to his history of head injuries. The most critical position in football needs clarity to ensure a successful season.
Falcons’ Head Coach Kevin Stefanski
Bijan Robinson is an elite running back, and Drake London is a top-10 receiver. The team also has promising young pass rushers. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Falcons pull off a few unexpected wins, I lack confidence in their ability to maintain consistent performance throughout the season. Record: 8-9
#1 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I know it’s a boring answer but blame it on the division… it’s pretty boring. Given the current landscape of the division, Todd Bowles has no excuse not to win the NFC South. It’s shaping up to be another down year for the division. The Bucs will have the best quarterback in Baker Mayfield (assuming he can shake off the struggles of his last nine games in 2025). They may also possess the strongest offensive line, receiver corps, and defensive front, bolstered by the additions of Rueben Bain Jr., A’Shawn Robinson, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and the return of Calijah Kancey from injury.
Bowles must avoid being overly aggressive with blitzing and refrain from meddling in offensive meetings. If he can do that, he may lead his team to another division title. His biggest challenge may be himself. Record: 9-8
good read. i agree overall that 9 wins will be enough to take; wouldn't be surprised if 8 wins seals the deal
Don't underestimate the Saints. Just on schedule factorability alone. They get V Raiders, @ NYG, and V Cardinals while the Bucs get @Dallas, v Chargers, and v Rams.
Carolina gets vs Denver, v Seattle, and @Philadelphia. Yikes
The Falcons not much easier -V KC, v 49ers, @Washington.
So the Saints on scheduling alone i think have a shot at not finishing in the basement this year. The Bucs 2nd place schedule actually looks much easier than the Carolina and Falcons. They look to have 2 losses at least in their 3 game slates while we have just the 1 guaranteed with Rams.
The other Saints big free agent addition was OL David Edwards. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints have the best OL in the division now and eclipse the Bucs starting 5. And they have Radunz and rookie Wright coming off the bench. The Bucs do not have any equivalent off the bench for interior OL for example.
I think you are vastly underestimating the Saints off season. They added Tyson and Lance to a pretty solid wR group and they also added Fant and to go with rookie Delp to augment Juwan Johnson. Only the Falcons have a three TE trio that might be better on paper.
Where people are sleeping on the Saints is their defense as last year was year 1 transition to a 34 defense. Adding Christen Miller to rotate in with Godchaux and Broughton to rotate in with Breese means the Saints will have a physical front again.
Adding Kaden Ellis was a stroke of genus as it weakened the Falcons and they have Stutsmen in reserve.
Their secondary does not have any high end player but they have depth. Emerson if he is healthy may emerge as a starting CB and basically scooped him up before the Bucs could sniff around for him.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Saints finish third or even second in the division. Etienne with Kamara and Neal as your third RB off the bench is a tough out for any defense.
The Panthers added rookie Brazzell to compliment Tet and allows Coker to continue to burn nickel and dime backs. They picked up Meltchie and they have Moore still around so that indicates they will be using these speedsters for mismatches when teams are worried about Tet/Brazzell/Coker/Leggette.
Between Tremble, Sanders and Evans they are going to cause mismatches.
At RB they have Chubbard who is a forgotten man but he can still be lethal. Etienne and Benson are behind him but they picked up of the hammer Dillon makes it clear that Canales is going to pound the rock.
Defensively the Panthers have caught up with the Falcons and Bucs in terms of talent. They replaced Robinson (now a Buc) with Wharton who is younger and they replaced Rozeboom with Lloyd. They also picked up this guy name Jaelan Phillips to play on the other side of Scourton. And they have Patrick Jones and Umanmielen off the bench. Landing Hunter Lee to rotate in with a defensive front of Wharton, Derrick Brown and Brown III will be tough for any offense trying to run.
The Panthers secondary is well rounded and they drafted quality rookies as depth with Will Lee II, and Zakee Wheatley.
Overall the Panthers are the most talented team in the division top down now and have the best DC in the division with Evero. Canales may make the claim of best HC in the division if he can hold off Stefanski this season. Panthers should win the division again.
The Falcons have the most talented defense in all of the NFCS but there are too many question marks with their WR group still, uncertainty with QB play and the performance of their OL. Especially with their OL depth.
Falcons did not have much of a draft to work with. But they made up for it with free agency by adding Ojulari, Williams, Ebukam, Sydney Brown, and Holmes. The Falcons already had the best secondary in the division but they added Sydney Brown and Holmes as depth who could compete for starting roles on many other teams. They also drafted Avieon Terrell who could be another boundary/NCB for them.
Falcons may finish fourth or even finish as high as 2nd due to Stefanskis' experience. Tua when he is hot can be tough to defend against and the combination of Pitts, Hooper and Worner is a straight up mistmatch which somewhat off sets for a questionable WR group. Bijan has Robinson who can rotate with him now and Goodson as a change of pace back.
Division should be more competitive next year. I don't have us as a top undisputed favorite. We still have a solid team capable of winning it but other teams have gotten closer over the years and maybe better at this point..
Thanks @ehinote for anorher interesting read!
I mostly agree, although Atlanta at #2 is tough to consider, but as you said it’s the NFCS…
I think the roster is more loaded, especially in defense, than it has been in awhile - just think there have been a lot of talent, coaching and some scheme changes, so it will take some time to gel. If we stay ahead of the injury bug, there won’t be any excuses for Bowles. He’s been given what he needs to make the defense work.
I agree we should win the division, that’s my expectation. In fact, winning a at least one playoff game is my expectation.
Good write up as ususal.
This is the unsolved problem for the Panthers. That and the 1st place schedule make it very iffy for Canales.
’m not high on Bryce Young as the quarterback who can elevate the team.
The Bucs have as good a chance as any to lead the still weak division. Depends on health, offense and special teams, and early games, maybe.
Division should be more competitive next year. I don't have us as a top undisputed favorite. We still have a solid team capable of winning it but other teams have gotten closer over the years and maybe better at this point..
i mean, it really shouldn't be a competition. The fact that we lost it last year after starting 5-1 is insane. We had 6 cup cake games to end the season and we went 2-4 when we were relatively healthy. Literally insane. It broke me as a fan, that's for sure. Then we go ahead and double down with the clown head coach who it happened under....
don't get me wrong, i'm a Buc Fan and have experienced much worse (think 2009 through 2019 pre Brady, post Gruden decade) but hard to be excited or confident about this team.
on paper, we should take this division. You can say rosters have normalized and that is fine but QB wise....even as much as i was disappointed in Baker last year, he's still, on paper, head and shoulders better than any other QB in the division.
Bucs are favorites but to your point because of the ineptness of them, it's not a slam dunk. I mean shit, we can start 7-0 and i would still be cautious of our ability to make the playoffs now.
I have the Bucs winning the division at 8-9. They may even win it at 7-10. The other 3 division opponents will struggle with their schedules.
The Bucs will have the best quarterback in Baker Mayfield (assuming he can shake off the struggles of his last nine games in 2025).
For some reason, those struggles are controversial on the Red Board. But it is definitely reality.
The Bucs will have the best quarterback in Baker Mayfield (assuming he can shake off the struggles of his last nine games in 2025).
For some reason, those struggles are controversial on the Red Board. But it is definitely reality.
thank you! i thought i was in the twilight zone for a second there.
I have the Bucs winning the division at 8-9. They may even win it at 7-10. The other 3 division opponents will struggle with their schedules.
yeah but as i mentioned above, Saints have the advantage in terms of the 3 games that are different. Luckily the Saints suck but if this division comes down to 1 game which it has 3 out of the last 4 years (Bucs had 2 game lead in 2024) that could make the difference; i.e. Bucs playing the Rams while Saints play the Cardinals, or Bucs playing the Chargers while Saints get the Raiders.
I agree that 8-9 may take it. I would like to see 7-10 take it though, that would be great lol
Yep, at 7-10 and division champs, the legend of Turd Bowels would live on forever. Build him a statue! Hang his banner in the ROH at RayJay!
Yep, at 7-10 and division champs, the legend of Turd Bowels would live on forever. Build him a statue! Hang his banner in the ROH at RayJay!
I sadly think he is already a shoe in for the Ring of Honor
He has 3 division titles which matches Jon Gruden for the most. He also was the DC in our Superbowl run.
Other coaches in the ring of honor - John McKay, Tony Dungy, Bruce Arians, Jon Gruden, and Monte Kiffin
it's why i tongue in cheek mention the statue....but as mediocre as Bowles is....he will have that spot in the ROH....probably right where Donkey Hunter has his season tickets...
The Bucs will have the best quarterback in Baker Mayfield (assuming he can shake off the struggles of his last nine games in 2025).
For some reason, those struggles are controversial on the Red Board. But it is definitely reality.
thank you! i thought i was in the twilight zone for a second there.
I think the struggles have been acknowledged but, according to multiple sources, Mayfield had multiple injuries he was playing through.
So this does beg a question or two…
Did Baker not learn his lesson about playing with an injury in Cleveland?
Is he injury prone, is it his style of play, or is it both?
When healthy, Baker has shown he can play at a super high level.
The Bucs will have the best quarterback in Baker Mayfield (assuming he can shake off the struggles of his last nine games in 2025).
For some reason, those struggles are controversial on the Red Board. But it is definitely reality.
thank you! i thought i was in the twilight zone for a second there.
I think the struggles have been acknowledged but, according to multiple sources, Mayfield had multiple injuries he was playing through.
So this does beg a question or two…
Did Baker not learn his lesson about playing with an injury in Cleveland?
Is he injury prone, is it his style of play, or is it both?
When healthy, Baker has shown he can play at a super high level.
injured but he managed to have more rushing yards per game post injury?
i think the merit is on the offensive line being a make shift offensive line - that certainly impacted the offense. One would think offensive line is to be healthier in 2026 but no one knows.
Point being is given Bakers style of play, it's very unlikely he will be 100% healthy through a season so you kind of have to take that into his complete body of work....especially if he's healthy enough to play.
If i had to bet, Baker will rebound from his poor play second half of 2025.....but i'm always not one to gamble so prudent to wait and see.....