BREAKING NEWS: GRUDEN SAYS HE WANTS TO COACH AGAIN

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Trevor Sikkema

Trevor Sikkema is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat reporter and NFL Draft analyst for PewterReport.com. Sikkema, an alumnus of the University of Florida, has covered both college and professional football for much of his career. As a native of the Sunshine State, when he's not buried in social media, Sikkema can be found out and active, attempting to be the best athlete he never was. Sikkema can be reached at: [email protected]

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31 Comments

  1. 1

    Iowabucfan

    B

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  2. 2

    Dano2200

    B

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  3. 3

    Naplesfan

    My choice:

    Neither. Don’t care for either package of picks.

    My big question here is, Trevor, you’ve asserted that the PSAR is the way to select draft picks, because, … well, just because.

    Please give us the data download as follows:

    What is the correlation between Combine-measured PSAR and, well, any reasonable measure of NFL performance. Such as a player’s statistical performance ranking in several key stats relevant to their position (passer rating or QBR for quarterbacks; number of receptions and YPA for receivers; number of sacks, QB pressures, TFLs for defensive linemen) … or even a correlation between PSAR and whether or not the drafted player was signed to a second contract by the team that drafted them. Or their PSAR and number of Pro Bowl appearance, or the PSAR and whether they were voted into the Hall of Fame.

    Because we’ve seen hyperinflated claims for many years now on the great and glorious predictive power of Advanced Metrics, but we never seem to answer the question, “Where’s the beef?”

    Heck we were told a few years ago that the Cleveland Browns were the veritable Mecca of Advanced Metrics gurus …. and now they’re picking first in the draft again.

    Color me extremely skeptical.

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    1. 3.1

      Nicholas Micciche

      I don’t think Tre said PSAR was the determining factor. And no one said the Browns were good at advanced metrics, they just hired the Moneyball guy.

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    2. 3.2

      Trevor Sikkema

      Which metrics hurt you, Naplefan?

      Haha, I’m kidding.

      I never said that PSAR is the determining factor. The average PSAR score in the NFL is, I believe, around 6.50. So, if you’re below that, there is a better chance than not that you’re not in the NFL. It’s just an adjusted metric based on size and performance, not statistics.

      Now, Jim Cobern has a system like the one it sounds like you’re asking for where he puts both athletic and production scores into percentiles of starters, pro bowlers and all-pro players. That has its own thresholds, which would be what you’re talking about. It basically points out how many, if any, players are in the NFL in those three categories with whatever athletic and production scores the topic player had.

      The PSAR isn’t a replacement for Cobern’s overall metric like that, but it might be a better way to factor in the final score of it. That’s all the PSAR is. It’s not a “must pass or you can’t draft them” tool. It’s just a tool to more clearly correlate what it really means when players of all shapes and sizes perform at the Combine.

      Perhaps I’ll go one step further and get into Cobern’s full percentile metric in the next Cover 3!

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      1. 3.2.1

        Naplesfan

        Thanks Trevor. My point here is that having good judgment on the part of the GM is by far the biggest factor in the success of draft picks, regardless of the metrics. And every metrics expert has his own model, says his works and everyone else’s doesn’t, blah blah blah.

        There are people who swear by PFF’s weekly metrics … which oftentimes produce real world results that make no damned sense at all … and others thing PFF is like pixie dust.

        So whose metrics are right? Anybody’s? Nobody’s?

        Metrics cannot measure character, or perseverance, or determination, or intelligence … nor can metrics predict injury …. nor can any metric system measure how a given player’s skills and performance mesh with his teammates skills and performance, or with his coach’s coaching.

        Only a GM’s judgment, with input from his coaches and scouts, can handle those kinds of questions. Metrics matter only a little, but game tape and the GM’s judgment account for about 90% of any good decision on acquiring players.

        The Metrics Pushers remind me of the old story about all the religious scholars arguing over how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

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        1. 3.2.1.1

          Trevor Sikkema

          I’m totally with you! Metrics alone will never do a scout’s fully job. There are many factors. None are “this is the make or break”. It should always be thorough.

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  4. 4

    Nicholas Micciche

    B. I’d love to get Obi later but I would rather reach a little for him than let him slip by.

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    1. 4.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      He will not be there when their pick comes around in the second round. Now, if they trade back…

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  5. 5

    GoldsonAges

    Great article again Trevor. Those athletic markers are great and I agree are best used as a tool to help further the evaluation process. But your two options highlight the importance of the game film evaluation when selecting players. Both of those options would be monumentally disappointing.

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    1. 5.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      Disappointing!? Man, tough crowd (ha).

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  6. 6

    chetthevette

    Hey TS if you replaced Gallman with Marlon Mack I would chose A. We better grab some defensive help in FA in that scenario.
    GO BUCS

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    1. 6.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      I’m afraid Mack might be long gone by then. I think Bucs fans are realizing that the “sleeper” guys PewterReport was in favor of back in December and January are no longer sleepers to the rest of the nation…

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      1. 6.1.1

        Brobear

        Think Hunt will be gone before that too?

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  7. 7

    Horse

    Good Article Trevor. For me it’s just a few more pieces of the puzzle of a player performance and future expectations.

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    1. 7.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      Thanks!

      It’s new(er) formula, but it does have a database of the last 12 years, so I’m really interested to see the success rate of it in the next 3-4 years. I think it’s a great idea.

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  8. 8

    David DeLeon

    Great article again TS, I like both for different reasons, but I would pick draft 1. First 3 picks of that one I like better.

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    1. 8.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      I think some people on PR are sleeping on how good Zay Jones can be. Perhaps it’s my job to let them know in a future All Twenty-Tuesday…

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  9. 9

    Hank Scorpio

    As tempting as Melifonwu is, I gotta go option 1. I’ve been really high on Njoku and Willis for awhile and Zay Jones would be a nice addition to the WRs.

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  10. 10

    SaskBucs

    I have to choose B, not for the players but for the positions. I hope we can get a defensive lineman and a defensive back in the first 3 rounds, as well as add a playmaker on offense at the WR or TE position. My problem is prioritizing those 3 positions. Hopefully the draft shakes out favorably and makes that part easy.

    Fortunately, I think Tampa is going to be in that position to take BPA due to the deep classes that also address their needs (minus O line but this site is trying hard to change my mind on that). After that, I like the idea of adding a RB in the 4th round even if my sights are set on names that won’t be there.

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  11. 11

    Chosen1

    Maybe instead of Zay Jones what about Curtis Samuel? Now that would be great with Njoku.

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    1. 11.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      I am a big Curtis Samuel fan. The kid is good.

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  12. 12

    FLBoyInDallas

    Nice article as usual, Trevor.

    I hate to be “that guy” who picks an option just to go and change it all to !@#$ and end up creating his own option “C”, but I’m gonna do it anyway. 😉

    I’ll take option “A” but change the DE pick to Hendrickson and the RB pick to Mixon. Yep, I said Mixon.

    Bring on the recriminations but I think the guy deserves a chance and I think he could still be sitting there in the fourth. I also think he’s genuinely remorseful and if Licht’s research bears out that he’s matured greatly since his crime, and that he’s a decent guy today and a good teammate, then I support drafting him 100%. Any media blowback will only last a season, anyway, just like it did when the Bucs drafted Winston.

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    1. 12.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      Haha! You can still pick a class then mention a guy you would have rather seen. The draft process is fun because people have opinions and points to back them up. I’ll have mine, I enjoy hearing others.

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  13. 13

    scubog

    Funny how there are always those folks who don’t want to follow the simple rules of this little game. It’s A or B, not create your own C, D and other twists. Since Plan A often fails, I’m going with Plan B from the start.

    Question: “Would you like a hamburger or a hot dog for lunch?” Answer: “I want a toasted cheese sandwich.”

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    1. 13.1

      Naplesfan

      Funny on how you comment the same damn thing every time I disagree with how Trevor set up his test. Funny how you think only conformers are allowed to comment here, and that only conforming comments are worthwhile. Funny you are full of yourself in that way, Scu.

      I made my points very clearly. Why don’t you try and make a cogent argument for or against.

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      1. 13.1.1

        scubog

        Did I mention you Naples? As Carley Simon might say, “You’re so vain you probably think this song/post is about you.” You call me “full of myself” then, with apparently little else to do down there in Naples, reply to numerous posts because you have anointed yourself judge of other people’s opinions. Even in Trevor’s little game you insist on offering the Draft according to Naples instead of choosing one of Trevor’s options.

        You could never have been a contestant on the Dating Game because you’d want to pick someone from the studio audience instead of one of the ladies behind the curtain.

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    2. 13.2

      FLBoyInDallas

      I usually enjoy scubog’s comments but your age is showing with this one.

      “Get off my damn lawn and stick to the rules! If you can’t stay inside the lines of the dadgum sidewalk then you should just stay home! Making me all sorts of uneasy with this wandering about every which way!”

      😐

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  14. 14

    curtwanderson

    A is better if your goal is adding more weapons. However, I like B better. I love a great defense. I’ll assume we get Jackson in free agency.

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  15. 15

    Charlie

    PSAR does not pass the common sense test.
    Dalvin Cook, Mike Williams, O.J. Howard not in the top 5 of their position groups? What a joke! Any one who thinks PSAR is a valid tool/approach is seriously lacking in the smarts department.

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  16. 16

    Alldaway 2.0

    You go with B all day as you have players that have starting potential across the board while with A that drops off after third round.

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