All-Twenty Tuesday

Winston had his struggles on Sunday and was very much a part of the Buccaneers’ 17-3 loss as anyone else. But, how much his shoulder playing a part in that loss is the real question.

Winston was having a hot and cold year before the Arizona game, and that was due to a few reasons. For one, Winston just has to be better than what he was, or at least more consistent. Winston could have a phenomenal throw one play just to miss a wide open guy the next. The talent is there but the consistency hasn’t been. And speaking of consistency, the game plan and the play calling has hung him out to dry, too. Even at times when Winston has been hitting, Koetter and the offensive game plan have held him back multiple times this season.

So which was Sunday’s game? Was it Winston? The shoulder? The game plan? Let’s go back and see.

Here was the play Winston hurt his shoulder on.

As you can see, the way he landed with his arm while throwing the ball made it easy to see why he’s in pain. Koetter was asked the week after this hit if they were going to try to limit Winston on roll outs or designed scramble plays because of the possibility of this happening again. Koetter said no, and I agreed with him. This is a common football play. Players move around the field to make plays, they take hits and they get hurt. It is what it is.

So, the big question here is: what did Winston’s arm look like after that hit? Was there a noticeable change in the speed on his passes? Was there less gas on passes that went beyond 10 yards? Did Winston have to modify his throwing technique at all to compensate for the shoulder?

The answer to all those questions looked like “no” early on.

The play above was the first passing play from Winston after he had taken that hit. His pass to O.J. Howard above was right on target and had good pace on it. The shoulder looked fine in the short term right after the sprain.

Even on Winston’s final drive of the Arizona game (in the second quarter), his arm looked fine to me. Sure, there were a passes that weren’t completions before then, but they weren’t due to anything abnormal that I could see that would have be caused by his shoulder bothering him.

In the throw above, Winston timed it right, delivered the ball with pace, and even put it low and away from the defender so tight end Cameron Brate could get his hands on it without the linebacker also doing so.

Up until Winston took himself out of the game, I didn’t notice any problems beyond just normal accuracy issues. Perhaps being on the bench and the adrenaline wearing off during one of Arizona’s drives really let the soreness and potential stiffness creep in, and that’s when he decided to tell Koetter he couldn’t go.

What about during the Bills game? Was there any noticeable different there? Again, no, not really.

The play above was the first pass play of the game. I know players go through warm ups and everything, but you’d think that if any pass would be off, it would have been the first one of the game. Winston’s first pass was dead on and had good pace to it. That showed me that his shoulder wasn’t bothering him too much in power or in accuracy when set up correctly.

What about distance throws in the Buffalo game?

Because of how quickly he was pulled in the Arizona game, we really didn’t get to see if the shoulder was a problem on deeper throws. After the game, Koetter told us that Winston said to him he just didn’t feel like he could get the ball where it needed to go. We assume that was distance-wise and that playing him would be limiting the offense without deeper option.

Winston wasn’t perfect from longer distances in the Bills game, but the clip above showed us that that wasn’t because of his shoulder. Though the play above was called back, Winston hit Jackson on the money for a 53-yard reception. His shoulder was fine there from a delivery standpoint, so we have to think it wasn’t much of a problem on other throws either.

So, let’s get to the Carolina game.

This was one of Winston’s worst games of the season. How he followed up what Koetter called one of his best with one of his worst is what we’re trying to figure out. Winston followed the same practice schedule as the week before, so that wasn’t it. Was it something else?

The play above was one early on in the game and boy was it ugly. Winston over threw and over shot DeSean Jackson by a lot, and if he would have hit him on target in stride, he might still be running to this day.

Something I do want to make a mention of is this: look at Winston’s feet on that missed throw to Jackson. Winston seemed to be falling to one side with his feet and his hips open. We’ve seen him do that as a natural tendency, as he likes to “play his fade,” if you will, but if you’ll go up and re-watch some of his better throws we’ve discussed, the footwork on those throws was much better.

There might be a technical issue with Winston, but it’s not because of his shoulder.

Even in a game that certainly wasn’t his best, Winston still had throws that showed us his shoulder wasn’t the main culprit in all this.

In the play above, Winston set his feet, pointed himself correctly towards his target, and hit Brate with pace in a tiny window within the soft spot of a tight zone for a completion. That was probably Winston’s best throw of the day – which was good, but is also a reason why his number of misses was surprisingly high.

The interception above wasn’t an issue with Winston’s shoulder and it wasn’t even really that good of a play by linebacker Luke Kuechly.

Winston just missed – he didn’t put it where it needed to go. He needed to throw the ball to the outside of Brate, away from Kuechly.

In conclusion, if you ask me, no, Winston isn’t more hurt than the coaches or he himself may be leading on. And if that’s true, it’s a good thing. The health of your starting quarterback is crucial and he’s still capable of starting games with the way his shoulder is right now, but will that change if he continues to take hits on it?

The bad part is that Winston is still missing throws he should be getting more consistently hitting.

Every quarterback has their misses. Not even Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers throw perfect games. But, those guys have consistency. Winston can get on rolls, and that’s what people point to when they talk about his ceiling, but he also goes on cold streaks – for too long or too often.

Right now, for whatever reason, whether it be technique or mental processing or lack of coaching or confusion in the game plan or whatever it may be, Winston is simply a hot and cold quarterback. He’s not consistent.

And his shoulder, while painful, isn’t the root of that problem.

Click to the next page to discuss what kind of short term future you predict for the Bucs’ franchise quarterback.