About the author

Trevor Sikkema

Trevor Sikkema is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat reporter and NFL Draft analyst for PewterReport.com. Sikkema, an alumnus of the University of Florida, has covered both college and professional football for much of his career. As a native of the Sunshine State, when he's not buried in social media, Sikkema can be found out and active, attempting to be the best athlete he never was. Sikkema can be reached at: [email protected]

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  1. 1


    I would say Mack because of the big play ability. Coach Koetter has said the Bucs need more “splash” plays. I think he can put in the time to work on the little things and improve.

  2. 2

    David DeLeon

    It’s hard to decide on Martin, if we could work out a deal that works better I wouldn’t mind waiting one more year before getting rid of him. In some of his really good games he was on the bench fourth quarter. That was probably a Lovey decision though.

    Also I like the speed of Mack, but neither in the first round. Maybe 3rd for Mack, 4th for Kanara.

    What if Cook is available though

  3. 3


    Kanara would be a good change of pace back, but those are a dime a dozen. Having a home run hitter like Mack is something you can’t teach, you have it or you don’t. The “little things” can be taught. Speed and vision can’t be. In another possession type offence, Kanara would be ideal. You run clock with him and he can get you a first down and keep the sticks and the clock moving. However, Koetter is not that kind of coach and he has made it clear he is looking for home run type players. Mack is that kind of player. As good as Doug Martin has been at times, the thing that frustrates me is that when he gets open he gets some yards but he gets caught from behind a lot. With a guy like Mack, once he is in space he’s gone and no one is going to catch him. Advantage Mack.

    1. 3.1


      I can’t tell you how many times my brother and I would flip sh$t at the tv because Martin would constantly be caught from behind on long runs.

  4. 4


    My best Valentine’s Days were spent with a gravity hammer on Guardian.

    1. 4.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      But it was only fun if you were on Tyler’s team.

  5. 5


    I agree that it is a tough decision, however I have watched them both extensively this season (wife is a Vol).

    My verdict would be to look at the blueprint of the most successful team in the NFL over the last decade; New England. When they have had successful pass catchers in the backfield (Faulk, White, Lewis) the Patriots have just been downright dangerous. So many times have these backs bailed out the offense with their ability to catch the ball out of the backfield that it has made it look easy. Also, in the NFL it is all about time management and ball control. Having a RB that can catch a ball and move the chains simply gives the defense a rest and keeps Pro Bowl QBs on other teams off of the field.

    The Pats offense reminds me a little bit of the Hal Mumme / Mike Leach Air Raid system as they believe you should get the ball in “your best runners hands” even if by air, which is why the RB is almost always the leading receiver on these teams. This system just screams matchup issues, especially when asking a DE or OLB to run with them.

    Furthermore, the Flacons and Devonta Freeman further solidify my points.

    In the end, I think Kamara is the better pick (if we cant get Cook), simply because he would give Jameis a true outlet that can make people miss underneath and keep the chains moving.

  6. 6


    Can we take both and move on from Sims and Martin? Kamara being the 3rd down back better than Sims and Mack having to be game planned for… To answer the question based off the way you posed it though, I’d have to take Mack. If we had an empty stable I’d go Kamara being more complete but with other talents in place mack fills a hole that no one else can fill at the moment.

  7. 7


    Here we have another writer trying to get rid of one of our better players without and compensation by coming up with “analytics” I have never heard of.
    Give me a break.
    Instead he lobbies for a player who has had “fumbling” problems in college and who doesn’t know how to pass block and needs work on catching the ball out of the backfield.
    If I didn’t know better I would have thought that was just and extensive post from surferdude without the perfunctory “sucks” verb used somewhere in the missive.
    After watching Mack carry the ball, its not hard to understand why he had “fumbling” problems. He doesn’t even look like he’s carrying the ball like the time worn cliché “loaf of bread” but more like a Cuban sandwich.
    My god the ball hawks DB’s in the NFL are going to drool like a 15 yo boy on a date with a prom queen when they see that ball carrying style.
    Also, in the NFL, you better learn how to run between the tackles, not outside of them and Martin knows how to do that.
    Please quit trying to get rid of our better players when there is still plenty of tread left on the tires. Well, at least two years, anyway.

    1. 7.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      I’m not trying to get rid of one of Tampa’s better players. Martin is doing that on his own.

      1. 7.1.2


        Have to agree that Martin is getting rid of himself.



          That is not an established “thing”. It all depends upon Martin’s fitness to play during the off-season, and the mutual agreement between Licht and Martin on a new contract to replace his likely-to-be-voided existing contract.



            Sorry, but Martin has a history of being productive only 40% of the time. What other players would you want to keep paying who only play up to their potential in 4 out of 10 games? RBs take a lot of pounding & their careers are short, but in this case, Martin was injured and missed significant time in his 2nd, 3rd & 5th seasons. He’s not a back that’s been around and producing consistently for 5 or 6 years and is only now starting to show the wear. He’s a coin flip every season!

            He makes sense only at a much smaller contract number, and even then, it’s high time to look for a likely replacement.

    2. 7.2


      DRD, why exactly do you think Martin is a “good player”? Please explain how a dude that is good 1 out of every three years is a good player. He’s injury prone, has a drug problem clearly, has had 2 good years out of 5, and can’t outrun a 250 pound linebacker. How exactly is this guy good again?

      1. 7.2.1


        Easy, cg. Any player who can twice in four seasons finish either first or second in the entire league in production is, by any possible rational definition, a good player.

        That he had injuries that hurt his production in two of those same four seasons only makes him very much like other leading running backs, like Adrian Peterson, or the other guy the Bucs drafted as a RB in the first round, Cadillac Williams.

        The position of RB is injury prone, period. All runners are subject to it, which is why most RBs are considered over the hill by the time they turn 30, while other positions typically can play into the mid 30s or later.

      2. 7.2.2


        And whatever “drug problem” Martin has, we don’t know what it is, whether it is a debilitating addiction, or simply a decision to used banned PEDs. Makes a huge difference which one it is.



          Can’t agree with you on this one, either, Naplesfan. If Martin simply had made a decision to use PEDs, why would he have checked himself into rehab? Doesn’t rehab, by definition, mean you have a ‘debilitating addiction’? He even said he realized that he had to start asking for help, and that he couldn’t beat his problems by himself. If Martin himself has described his situation as a ‘debilitating addiction’, why would you want to see it as something else?



            Because we don’t know what “it” is. Until we do it is mere speculation. There is no value in speculating. Martin knows what “it”is, and the team knows what “it” is … be the public does not know what “it” is.



          I can’t follow your last comment here at all. What do you mean by ‘we don’t know what “it” is.” What do you mean by ‘it’? Are you saying we don’t know what substance he was abusing? I don’t see how that really matters, other than degree of the seriousness of the addiction, but OK. It isn’t like Martin was admitting to an addiction to shots of espresso coffee. The NFL doesn’t test for caffeine & nobody goes to rehab because their coffee fix is out of control.
          Reports came out that it was Adderall, which is definitely an addictive stimulant. OK, Adderall is not as serious as cocaine addiction, but it’s still an addiction, hence the issue is only one of degree.

  8. 8


    Great article…but these two are overrated. Perrine and Hunt seem like better fits for our offense. It’s a shame as there aren’t many pro style running backs in college as they are all coming from the spread.

    1. 8.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      I would have Hunt over both, yes. Probably Perine, too, but I’ll wait until after the Combine to be sure on that.

  9. 9


    Trevor – specifically speaking of “success rate” it was originally discussed in the book titled “The Hidden Game of Football”, written in 1988, by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer and John Thorn – the gist is, that on first down, a play is considered successful if it gains 45% of needed yards, on second down, a play needs to gain 60% of the yards needed, and on third or fourth down for a play to be considered successful a new first down must be gained.

    Now I know many have taken the research further over the last 30 years – however – they are still trying to quantify what percentage of success should be divided and assigned to the different moving parts.

    In the 4 for 4 model, it appears that are using the original research and equation that Carroll, Palmer and Thorn developed. The formula is simple, yet effective and fits nicely into Microsoft Excel using VBA.

    Carroll, Palmer and Thorn, wrote the next edition of the Hidden Game of Football in 1998 – delving deeper into their original “Success Rate” along with other quantifiable subjective data mining.

    As for Mack versus Kamara – Mack has what appears to be elite type Olympic speed where Kamara has functional football speed. The difference as you pointed out is consistency and Kamara’s superior balance – he is Charles Sims with much better balance and ability to get through initial contact.

  10. 10


    This is fantastic. Trevor, I am so thankful to have the info and analysis you bring to the table. Some agree, some don’t but at least we’re talking football. None of us have the ability to pull the trigger or even influence the ones that will so obviously this is all just in good fun. Discussing and speculating is all us powerless fans have at the moment. Thanks for turning over some fresh dirt for us to sift around in!

  11. 11


    What an amazing article. I’ve got two comparisons. Kamara – Ajayi 1st. Ajayi has better top end speed but both players are natural runners with elite balance. Mack – David Johnson. Well, not quite but Mack does have that turbo speed that allows him to make the huge plays. DJ is an elite athlete in every regard and Mack is not in that class IMO.
    One last thing, I saw the mock that had Kamara going to us at 19. That would be a disaster. David Johnson is one of the best players in the NFL and he was a 3rd rounder. Kamara only dreams of becoming the next Ajayi and Ajayi was a 5th rounder (injured at draft) . I hope they don’t like RB’s as much as kickers at OBP because if they draft either of these before round 3 it will be a disaster. Oh yeah, give me Kamara in the 3rd. I’m not a fan of Mack.

  12. 12


    If I had to pick between these two in the same round, it’s Kamara and it’s not even close. Home run ability is badly overrated, IMO. You’re talking about maybe a couple handfuls of plays per season, and that’s for the absolute best big play backs in the game. Kamara’s excellent balance and clear superiority in the passing attack make him a clearly better option than the ball insecure, physically deficient passing game liability Mack is. Honestly, Mack is one of my least favorite prospects in this draft and has been for some time. I hate watching him run and picturing him doing it against the speed of NFL defenses. He’s no LeSean McCoy, which is about what it takes to consistently win with speed and quickness at this level. And anyways, if we’re talking about replacing Martin, we’re looking for an every down type player, which Kamara easily projects to be better than Mack could be.

    Far and away, my favorite option is to keep Doug. I don’t agree with the assertion that he’s earned his way out of town, although you guys at PR seem pretty confident that the team is moving away from him, and I trust you guys above all others when it comes to team news before it happens.

    If we move on from Doug, I feel extraordinarily confident that we’ll spend the next few years watching him tear it up elsewhere and wistfully wonder why we quit on him, much the way many Bucs fans did with Blount these last couple years. A 3 game suspension? Gimme a break. Le’Veon Bell missed 3 games to start this year, and it wasn’t the end of the world, either for the team in his absence or for his value to them.

    Unless the team has inside info that Martin really does have a SERIOUS drug problem or something like that (which seems incredibly unlikely to me), then we’d be foolish to bail on him entirely. Sure, use some leverage to get his price tag down, but even if we were to draft Kamara or someone like him, Doug would easily be the best back available to us for 2017, IMO.

    1. 12.1


      Toofamiliar, the problem with Martin isn’t him missing the first 3 games of next season, its the fact that he is injury prone. Martin has been in the league for 5 years and 3 of those years he has failed to rush for more than 500 yards. Every running back has an injury sometimes but you cant be injured 60% of the time and expect to make top 5 money at your position. Even the worst year bell has had he at least had 500 yds rushing. Bell has surpassed Martins numbers in 1 less year. Bell averages avgs 1011 yds rushing, 6.5 rush TDs, 500 yds receiving, 1.25 reciving TDs a year compared to Martin who averages 761 yds rushing, 4.6 rush TDs, 200 yd recieving, and .5 reciving TDs a year. Do you really believe a RB who averages those numbers per season over 5 seasons deserves to get paid top 5 at his position? If Martin isn’t willing to take a pay cut then cut him. I would even be ok with adding incentive bonuses so he could still make top 5 money as long as he performed like a top 5 RB.

      1. 12.1.1


        wnb – your logic is based on Martin making top five money, and therefore is flawed. He won’t.

        If Martin is still on the roster in 2017 his pay is going to be a small fraction of his voided contract guarantee. The Bucs are most likely to offer him a base salary, reduced by the number of games suspended, that is relatively low, but if he performs as he did two years ago would compensate him fairly with incentive payments.

        Pay for performance. That is the best that Martin can get anywhere, so I doubt he would try to go elsewhere. All this costs us is a roster spot. Martin’s past performance, both good and bad, is worthy of a roster spot on a one-year agreement.



          Naples, your saying the same thing I stated in my last 2 sentences. If Martin wont take a pay cut then cut him. If he does take a pay cut we could add incentive bonuses so he could still make his top 5 salary as long as he performs as a top RB. But thank you for explaining it better than I did.

      2. 12.1.2


        I agree that we have leverage to get him to accept less money in a new contract, and that we should do that. No argument there.

        I struggle with the injury thing, though. I just don’t know how much I actually buy that being healthy is a legitimate skill. In other words, for most guys, it seems like it’s more luck related to me. I mean, look at Demarco Murray – literally starting from his freshman season in college and going through his third season in the NFL, he sustained some kind of significant injury in every season but one. That’s injuries in six out of seven straight seasons.

        And then, since then, he’s had three straight seasons in playing 16, 15, and 16 games respectively. I mean, if ANYONE was going to be “injury prone” for his career, it was clearly going to be that guy, right?

        I do think you can reasonably label a guy injury prone if he misses a crazy amount of games consecutively, i.e. Ryan Mathews or the aforementioned Murray….but again, it appears that anyone who was labeling Murray as injury prone (I was one who did) was just…..I dunno, just wrong. So Doug has missed time in three of five seasons. Yes, that sucks. But does that tell us that he’s really truly likely to miss major time moving forward? I’m just not so sure that’s a conclusion that would be supported by a close look at how these things typically go.

        RBs get injured, and they get injured a lot. When you get hit as often as a RB does, you’re absolutely going to have some guys who get injured more often than others purely by chance as much as anything. That really makes sense when you think about it. I don’t want to quit on Doug because of a measly three game suspension, and I don’t want to quit on him because he’s “injury prone” only for him to turn around and rattle of three straight years of high level play for someone else, which is something us Bucs fans are used to seeing happen with regularity.



          Yup,. toofamiliar. The problem is the position – starting running back. They’re all prone to get injured because they make their living trying to bust through and between 300-350 pound defensive lineman and linebackers.

          The position that on average has the shortest NFL career length is the running back.

          It’s also not a secret that the four positions that the NFL has striven for two decades to protect with rules changes – the quarterback, the punter, the kicker, and the “defenseless receiver” – tend to have relatively long and healthy NFL careers as long as they remain productive … most making it to their mid to late 30s, long after most RBs are retired from the league.



          I agree that every running back gets hurt and misses games. The average starting running back misses 2-3 games a season. Demarco Murray has had 1 season out of 6 where he missed more than 3 games. That’s not injury prone. Doug Martin has had 3 out of 5 seasons where he has missed at least 5 games. That’s 60 % of his NFL career he has missed at least 1/3 of his season. He also has 2 out of 5 years where he has missed at least half his season. So for 40 % of his NFL career he has failed to play for more than half a season. That is injury prone. When your doubling the amount of missed games the average starting RB misses per season for 60% of your NFL career, that is injury prone. I cant think of any other starting RB that misses at least 5 games per season for 60% of their career and makes anything close to what Martin makes per year. So just to clarify, Since the standard RB misses 2-3 games a season, it is not considered injury prone but when a RB misses 5 or more games a season for 60% of his career, it is considered injury prone.

  13. 13


    I tend to believe that the Bucs won’t just cut Martin … I expect them to void the contract and resign him to a much lower-paid base salary with some incentives should he revive his performance from two years ago. He’ll miss the first few games due to the suspension, and then we’ll see whether he’s a keeper or not.

    Obviously we still need another one or two RBs on the roster besides Martin and Rodgers and Sims. Sims is not on his way to a second contract with the Bucs, unless he greatly improves his productivity this season.

    As for the two replacement running backs highlighted by Trevor, I’m not impressed by either as a Day 2 pick .. maybe on Day 3. I think RB is a great position from which we can find a UDFA or someone dropped by another team, someone whose particular style and capabilities are a good mesh with Koetter’s offense. Don’t waste a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a RB, in my opinion.

  14. 14


    Mixon in round 2 baby! I know I didn’t answer the question, it would be Karmara but no sooner than rd 3.
    Great analogy on Martin, we lost that love’n feeling.

    1. 14.1


      Don’t want that dude associated with the Bucs in any way, fashion, etc.

      1. 14.1.1


        Everyone in KC said the same thing about Tyrek Hill including myself when the chiefs drafted him last year. No body wanted him after he beat the mother of his child. As much as I dont like it, now he is a hero in KC.



          Yea, he is, but that’s just one year. If Hill beats the hell out of a woman in a year and half, sure, they’ll have gotten that time out of him, but (1) he may well be useless moving past that point, and (2) they’re going to take a ton of flack for bringing that guy into their community, as well they should. One year of not getting caught hitting pregnant women doesn’t mean his problems are behind him, lol.

  15. 15


    The Bucs should look at Mixon and Hunt as the potential heir apparent in the draft. Fumbling issues and no real burst are the reason I wouldn’t take either of these guys. The people that want to replace Sims don’t understand that he fills his role. Last year we asked him to be an every down RB and he’s not. Just bc somebody can’t carry the load does not mean they have no value. He was dynamic catching the ball and made plenty of big plays on 3rd down scoring touchdowns and breaking tackles down the field, don’t make the mistake of writing off a very good role player bc he’s not more than that.

    1. 15.1


      Sims reminds me of White from the Patriots this year. He is an OK runner but excels in catching passes out of the back field. There is always room for that type of Sproles RB.

  16. 16

    Mambo #3

    My valentines dates were playing condemned with a pillow over my eyes and then wishing “Fun John” was there…

    1. 16.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      Fun John’s been dead since 09

  17. 17


    It’s perplexing to me how fickle Bucs Fans are Doug Martin ran for two 1,500 yd seasons and some fans think he sucks knowing he had injuries the other yrs, they want to run the guy out of town after one down yr, how did Todd Gurley do this yr are Rams Fans running him out of town or Thomas Rawls in Seattle? I say give Martin this yr and then we can start scouring the wire for rb’s in college.

  18. 18


    I think we should sign Martin to a 2-3 year deal at a discounted price. Give him a few years to earn himself another big check and cut our losses if he is unable. In the meantime, we will have time to draft and develop a replacement. For now, we should definitely be resigning Rodgers who proved himself last year

  19. 19


    I would say Kamara due to durability. Mack’s style and underdeveloped control looks like it could lead to turnovers … plus he carries the ball low in stride. NFL will not be as nearly forgiving as NCAA. If the players were equal, I would still edge Kamara because I think someone who has been through as much adversity better realizes opportunity as well and may have a slight advantage as a pro – something that both the muscle hamster and Josh Freeman lacked. Look at Blount from where he was to where he is now.

  20. 20


    Bring up Mixon & the unforgiving come out. What he did was deplorable, but that was 2-3 years ago. Hopefully he has grown up & woman are untouchable. We wouldn’t have drafted Winston or Spence if we held that standard. If Licht & scouts are comfy it is worth the bet. He is a first round talent that will go day 2 or 3.

    1. 20.1


      I would pass on Mixon due to the deep talent but agree that he should get a shot in the nfl. Maybe take a day 3 flier on him. You can’t be serious comparing a young man who caused a woman to get her jaw wired shut to another who uses ecstasy in college. Wow. As far as Jameis, that one is iffy. No conviction yet the system around him is inherently biased. So 50/50 there. He has kept out of trouble and proven to be a good pick so far; I just don’t think Tampa wants to become the second chance depot for checkered past players.

    2. 20.2


      The argument with Winston was over whether what he did with the gal was consensual, or not. That is something that can be tough, if not impossible, to determine after the fact.

      What Mixon did was obviously not “consensual”. Which is why the conviction rate for assault and battery is a helluva lot higher than it is for rape.

  21. 21


    Gee wiz Naples; out of 41 comments 8 are from you over a 7 hour span. You must have more free time than the rest of us. Me, I check Pewter Report each morning and that’s about all I have time for until the next day’s morning cup of coffee. What’s your secret?

    I know you like it best when you can dispute someone’s comments so you can tell us what we all should think, but I somewhat share your view on RB’s and Doug Martin. There’s little doubt that Doug will fall victim to the”Curse of the Scubog Player Jersey” and join the likes of Clayton, Revis, Barron and others who’s fate was decided once I purchased the shirt bearing their name.

    In reality I believe Martin’s future here is dependent on what he displays between now and the day the roster is whittled down to 53. I agree with those who want to take a wait and see approach before jettisoning him too quickly. There will be plenty of evaluation time. I’m sure Licht will have his bases covered in case Martin’s release is the final decision.

    Covering that base just might involve drafting a RB. Where I somewhat agree with you is that over the years there have been a number of quality backs drafted in the later rounds or not drafted at all while others thought to warrant being chosen early, failed for a variety of reasons. The same thing can be said for every position group. It’s just hitting on those “hidden gems” we all can name, can prove to be a difficult task.

    I think we all see the potential NFL star that Dalvin Cook might become. He’s certainly shown that in college. So did Todd Gurley, who was drafted in the top ten, shined as a rookie then fell back to being an average back this past season. Zeke Elliott, like our own Doug Martin, had a great rookie campaign, but will that success continue for longer than his contract term?

    The two Superbowl participants took the RB by committee approach. Different backs with different skill sets to make the offense more difficult to defend. We had similar success with Doug Martin and Charles Sims in 2015. We tried a similar tactic in 2016 with no where near the results.

    So there we are on the clock at #19 and our choice of the top three RB’s, the last one of the top three WR’s and O.J. Howard are there to add “Weapons for Winston”. Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, Charles Davis, Mike Mayock and Bucky Brooks are tossing out virtually every name in hopes of making the correct prediction. The card is in, Roger steps up and announces, “__________________?” Chefboho throws his TV flipper in disgust. Let the debate begin.

    1. 21.1

      Trevor Sikkema

      Your jersey reference made me laugh as myself and a few college friends of mine had a similar story. If we owned a player’s Tampa jersey and he was cut or released, we would put it in this chest that was in our common room, never to be worn again.

      There were a lot of jerseys in that chest (I lived in an 8-man dorm).

  22. 22


    Drug Martin will be lucky to be in the league next year. Consider his three game suspension, his injury history, his age, and a draft loaded with young cheep legs. Scu, you got almost 5 good years out of that Jersey, not bad. They should put the names, and numbers on with velcro!

  23. 23


    The same people who want to cut or waive Martin for nothing in return will also be the same ones complaining and screaming when he shows up in New England and rushes for 1500 yards and takes the Patriots to another Super Bowl. Can you imagine the Patriots with a real effective back like Martin in the Patriots backfield. Egads.
    And would you take a pay cut from the Bucs who are still building for a Super Bowl run or one from the Patriots who know how to get there on a regular basis. Seriously folks, get a clue.
    It’s not like the Bucs are in need of money or salary cap space. They have plenty of both.
    But it’s hard to take your analysis seriously, Trevor, when you talk about the Bucs possibly getting rid of Martin and then seemingly advocate for them to draft a player like Mack.
    The way that guy treats the ball so casually is more frightening than Donald Trump in the White House, which I can now safely say is getting pretty scary if you don’t want your second language to be Russian.

  24. 24


    It’s not just the Buc’s willingness to resign D. Martin… its would Martin want to resign here if cut? The Buc’s would have to officially cut him first to void the remaining years of his contract. When they do this, they would have to offer him a number that will be much smaller than the contract just voided. I believe Martin will not agree to this paycut. I don’t believe we have heard from Martin about what he is going through since the suspension other than the prepared statement he released after his suspension. I wouldn’t resign with the Bucs if I were him. I would take my game to another team. Change of scenery is needed for him and the Bucs! Time to move on from the Bucs! It’s in both parties best interest… I’m just saying!

  25. 25

    Mr. Incredible

    I’d like to see an analysis of McCafree against these guys. At least with him you don’t have to worry about any nonsense.

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