Bucs training camp is just around the corner, and fantasy football draft season won’t be far behind it. Given how prolific Tom Brady has been in his time with Tampa Bay, there will be plenty of interest in Bucs receivers when it comes time for fantasy drafts.

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are going to be hot commodities, as will Russell Gage. Byron Leftwich’s offense will air it out, which will lead to a high volume of targets and production for those three receivers in particular.

But what about Brady himself? What’s his fantasy value as he enters his 23rd NFL season? As historic as the 44-year-old’s career has been, he hasn’t always been the top choice for fantasy owners when it comes time to draft quarterbacks. That doesn’t seem to be changing this year, either.

Pro Football Focus recently released its fantasy quarterback tier rankings, and Brady was included in the fourth tier. That may seem low for a player of his stature, but it makes sense. He tends to hover around that range every year, and he’s typically a steal in the later rounds. He might not be an elite fantasy quarterback every week, but he’s going to put up big performances and get the job done. You can win a fantasy championship by building your running back and receiving depth early before stealing Brady later.

So, Why Is Brady A Fourth-Tier Fantasy Football Quarterback?

Rushing stats are a major factor for fantasy quarterbacks, which is why Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are Tier-1 guys. They provide a rare combination of high-volume production both through the air and on the ground. Brady, of course, isn’t known for eye-catching rushing numbers (though he will take off and show “elite” speed when necessary).

Bucs QB Tom Brady and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes – Photo by: USA Today

Tier 2 of PFF’s list includes Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts. Trey Lance and Joe Burrow follow in Tier 3 before we find Brady and a host of other veterans in Tier 4.

Brady is joined by reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, defending Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott. The Bucs’ signal-caller is No. 11 overall on the list. Why is he that low? Well, Brady isn’t always going to wow you with numbers on a weekly basis. He does what he has to do to win football games.

Take last year’s win over Indianapolis, for example. Brady did his job, leading the Buccaneer offense down the field and putting the team in position to win. Tampa Bay did win, 38-31, but he threw for just 226 yards, a touchdown and an interception. He had the offense in position to score points, and it did so with Leonard Fournette finding the end zone four times.

That’s not a great fantasy day for Brady. But it’s a “job done” day in real-life football. You’re going to get your share of big days from him, though. Per PFF, he had more weeks as a top-five fantasy quarterback in 2021 than Allen, Herbert, Rodgers, Prescott, Murray, Stafford and Mahomes.

Is Brady Due For A Decline In 2022?

Jahnke’s explanation for placing such highly rated quarterbacks in his fourth tier of fantasy quarterbacks is interesting. Here’s what he had to say:

“This tier belongs to four quarterbacks who performed well last season but could decline a little bit this season. All four are part of the cluster of quarterbacks with at least 18 fantasy points per game as passers last season but under one point per game as rushers. Any fantasy manager who started them last season was happy.

One problem for each quarterback is age. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are both pushing the limits of how old a quarterback can effectively play in the NFL. Matthew Stafford is at the age where quarterbacks used to see a notable decline, and while Dak Prescott isn’t old enough to see a decline yet, he may have already reached his peak.

They are all facing some problems at receiver, as well. Brady lost two future Hall of Famers, and Chris Godwin might not be ready to start the season. Prescott lost Amari Cooper and might not have Michael Gallup in Week 1. Additionally, Rodgers lost Davante Adams via trade while Stafford lost Odell Beckham Jr. and Robert Woods.

This tier’s quarterbacks can overcome these setbacks, but there isn’t much reason to believe they’ll have a better 2022 than 2021. In fact, there is a good chance their production stagnates or even declines. Any team that missed out on the first three tiers should wait until at least one of these are off the board before picking a quarterback from this tier.”

Bucs QB Tom Brady – Photo by: USA Today

Let’s focus on Brady here. To say he performed well last year would be an understatement, given he posted seven games with more than 350 yards and eight games with three or more touchdown passes. It’s fair to say he wasn’t a week-to-week fantasy star, though.

The big thing here is the idea of a potential decline in 2022. Everyone says Father Time is undefeated, but Brady has played at a high level well into his 40s. Will 2022 be the year his age finally catches up to him? Perhaps it could be, but betting against him in that battle is a fool’s errand.

The idea that Brady faces problems at receiver feels like a stretch, too. Godwin’s injury is somewhat of a question mark, but there’s optimism that he’ll make his 2022 debut sooner rather than later. Even in his absence, the Bucs have a capable fill-in in Gage. And when Godwin returns, the trio of Evans, Godwin and Gage will give Brady plenty to work with in a fantasy sense.

Overall, Brady’s place in this tier of fantasy quarterbacks is likely valid. It’s just the justification that seems a little off. He’s more deserving of being in this category due to his up-and-down production, at least in a fantasy-sense.

Jahnke seems to believe there will be a dropoff for this crop of quarterbacks in 2022, but thinking like that is what makes Brady such a high-value pick. Select him in the middle rounds and reap the benefits, Bucs fans.