FAB 2. The Best And Worst Of Licht’s Draft Picks

In a recent column by USA Today’s Steven Ruiz, Bucs general manager Jason Licht was ranked 31st out of 32 NFL general managers. The only executive that was ranked worse than Licht was new Jets head coach Adam Gase, who is the de facto G.M. because New York has yet to hire a replacement for the recently fired Mike Maccagnan.

Newly hired Oakland general manager Mike Mayock, who has only been on the job for five months, ranks one spot ahead of Licht.

Bucs head coach Bruce Arians, LB Devin White and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

Ruiz laid out his case in a single paragraph, noting Licht’s misses in free agency and whiffing at drafting Roberto Aguayo in the second round in 2016.

“Seriously, how does Jason Licht still have this job? He’s spent a TON of money in free agency and those moves have not paid off. He’s also botched most of his first-round picks, which have been near or in the top-10. And, oh yeah, he’s drafted TWO kickers! He justified this year’s pick by claiming that kicker is one of the most important positions on the roster. Let that sink in.”

As I detailed in a previous SR’s Fab 5 last December, Licht’s draft record when it comes to the draft is actually on par with some of his peers, most notably Rams general manager Les Snead, who ranked 10th on Ruiz’s list, and Eagles G.M. Howie Roseman, who ranked first.

I’m not suggesting Licht is a Top 10 general manager – or even that he belongs in the top half of the league – but in terms of acquiring talent, especially through the draft, I think he’s done a good job of stockpiling talent, specifically on the offensive side of the ball. Former head coach Dirk Koetter said talent wasn’t the issue with the team’s 5-11 record last year on the way out, and new head coach Bruce Arians reaffirmed that talent isn’t the issue in Tampa Bay when he took the job in January.

I don’t cover the NFL – just the Buccaneers – so I don’t have the frame of reference to accurately rank Licht among the league’s other general managers. What I will do over the next three sections of this SR’s Fab 5 is point out his five best and worst draft picks, the five best and worst Buccaneers acquired via free agency and trades, and the five best and worst re-signings by Licht, and let you make your own determination.

Let’s start with the Bucs’ drafts since Licht arrived in Tampa Bay in 2014.

Licht’s 5 Best Draft Picks

Bucs WR Mike Evans – Photo by: Getty Images

1. WR Mike Evans
In just five years, the 25-year old Evans, who was the seventh overall pick in 2014, has already established himself as the best receiver in Bucs history by smashing multiple team records and tying an NFL record for five consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to start his career in addition to making a Pro Bowl. Evans, who has Hall of Fame potential, was Licht’s first draft pick – and his best one to date.

2. MLB Kwon Alexander
Alexander was a Day 3 gem in 2015 and a four-year starter in Tampa Bay before signing a massive deal with San Francisco in free agency. He had 145 tackles in 2016, including an NFL-high 108 solo tackles, but was snubbed for the Pro Bowl. Alexander made the Pro Bowl in 2017, but tore his ACL last season and missed 10 games, which made him difficult for Tampa Bay to re-sign this offseason and prompted the drafting of middle linebacker Devin White with the fifth overall pick in 2019.

3. TE O.J. Howard
There’s a good chance that Howard would have been considered for the Pro Bowl last year if he hadn’t missed the final six games of the season due to injury. Howard, a first-round pick in 2017, has 11 touchdowns in just 22 starts and all the tools to become the best tight end in the league. He should explode in 2019 in Bruce Arians’ offense and has the potential to be a 1,000-yard receiving tight end.

Bucs LG Ali Marpet – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

4. LG Ali Marpet
Marpet is a Pro Bowl-caliber guard that has played three different positions over the last three years. With another year at left guard coming up this season, Marpet should settle in and reach his full potential and be in strong Pro Bowl consideration in 2019. Marpet is widely respected by his peers and was voted as a team captain on offense last year for the first time.

5. QB Jameis Winston
Winston has set several team passing records in his four years in Tampa Bay and has loads of untapped potential that has been stymied by his penchant for turning the ball over and a three-game suspension last season. Winston went to a Pro Bowl during his rookie season and has been a four-year starter with the Bucs, but hasn’t quite earned a contract extension past his fifth-year option yet.

Analysis: Some of Licht’s best finds have actually come after the draft with the likes of wide receiver Adam Humphries, tight end Cameron Brate and running back Peyton Barber, but he’s also nailed some talented draft picks too, including three Pro Bowlers in Evans, Alexander and Winston. Howard and Marpet should join the Pro Bowl list too, and this year’s first-rounder, linebacker Devin White, has the chance to be really special, and I think last year’s first-round pick, defensive tackle Vita Vea, can become a really good player, too.

Licht’s 5 Worst Draft Picks

Former Bucs K Roberto Aguayo – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

1. K Roberto Aguayo
Drafting a kicker in the second-round is bad enough, but Licht traded up to get Aguayo, who lasted just one year in Tampa Bay and two years in the league. Aguayo, who was the worst kicker in the league in 2016, goes down as one of the worst draft picks in Bucs history.

2. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Licht’s second draft pick as a G.M. was Seferian-Jenkins, a second-rounder in 2014 with character issues. Seferian-Jenkins lasted a little over two years in Tampa Bay as an underachiever before being cut after a DUI. Seferian-Jenkins moved on to the New York Jets and then Jacksonville for a year. Seferian-Jenkins was signed by New England this offseason, but recently cut.

3. CB Vernon Hargreaves III
Hargreaves was the 11th overall pick in 2016 and has just one interception in his three years in Tampa Bay – the last two of which have been cut short due to injury. Licht has drafted four cornerbacks since drafting Hargreaves, and this is a make-it-or-break-it year for him in Tampa Bay despite having his fifth-year option picked up for 2020.

4. OLB Noah Spence
Spence, a second-round pick in 2016, had a promising Bucs debut as a rookie with 5.5 sacks and three forced fumbles while battling a shoulder injury. Spence needed a second surgical procedure in 2017 and missed most of his second year as a result. Healthy and bigger in 2018, Spence got lost in the shuffle and didn’t fit into Brentson Buckner’s rotation as he played bigger defensive ends instead. A new position as an outside linebacker and restored confidence could help Spence, who is in a contract year.

Bucs RB Ronald Jones II – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

5. RB Ronald Jones II
Jones beats out defensive back M.J. Stewart, a fellow second-rounder in the 2018 draft, to be on this list because he came with high expectations, as running back is usually the easiest transition to make for players coming from the college ranks to the NFL. Jones must prove he can catch the ball as well as break tackles and make tacklers miss or risk becoming a bust.

Analysis: Licht will never be able to live down the Aguayo pick, but the good news is that three players on this list – Hargreaves, Spence and Jones – can be removed with a big season from each in 2019. If this trio can stay healthy and live up to expectations it not only changes the Bucs’ fortunes, but greatly improves Licht’s record when it comes to the draft, which is full of hits and misses.

Up next, I examine Licht’s track record in free agency, which is notably worse than his reputation when it comes to the draft.