About the author

Scott Reynolds

Scott Reynolds is in his 23rd year of covering the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the vice president, publisher and senior Bucs beat writer for PewterReport.com. Author of the popular SR's Fab 5 column on Fridays, Reynolds oversees web development and forges marketing partnerships for PewterReport.com in addition to his editorial duties. A graduate of Kansas State University in 1995, Reynolds enjoys giving back to the community as the defensive line coach for his sons' Pop Warner team, the South Pasco Predators. Reynolds can be reached at: [email protected]

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39 Comments

  1. 1

    yuccaneers

    Scott – I am guessing, the team has fully boughten into, Tyler Oberly, the team’s Manager of Analytics, Elitics Model, that uses his Player Efficiency Rating (PER) index to help determine a price point for each of the teams free agents based on, the following snippet from you Fab 5 column……. “This is typically done through statistical analysis of a player’s stats with his age, previous contract and overall value to the team (leadership, work ethic, locker room character, age, etc.) factored in.” – in essences, it gives the team a singular grade or point scale – which is then used as part of the equation – and formulated as a percentage of the cap number to determine a player’s financial value or price point for contract negotiations purposes.

    Below is a link to the Elitics model that Oberly dicusses his PER rating index….

    http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Elitics_Model.pdf

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    1. 1.1

      macabee

      I get It, you get it! But we got some work to do at home with poppa Koetter. You know he’s the boss! lol.

      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2588754-dirk-koetter-says-he-doesnt-trust-buccaneers-analytics-department

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    2. 1.2

      Scott Reynolds

      I’m not sure if they use that model or the Bucs’ own in-house model. Contrary to popular opinion, Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter does use analytics, but relies first on his eyes and his gut when making decisions. Analytics are a secondary tool for evaluation from what I’ve been told.

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  2. 2

    JasonOfthetower

    Been a fan of McCaffrey for a while now. He’s my draft crush. I’d love to see him in Pewter and Red, but I don’t know if they pull the trigger at 19.

    Personally, I don’t think he makes it out of the first round.

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    1. 2.1

      Bucnut2

      Totally agree

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    2. 2.2

      Scott Reynolds

      I agree. I think Christian McCaffrey will be a first-round pick. I think he’ll show well at the NFL Scouting Combine, and I’ll admit I have a draft crush on him too after doing my evaluation.

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  3. 3

    cgmaster27

    Loving this RB centric Fab 5. I for one am in for cook if he falls to us of course, which would be a small miracle. It all depends on free agency at this point. I am not for trading up too far to get him either as we need picks. If he’s still there like two spots ahead of us, make a move and get him. As for McCaffrey, I’m not a big fan. I wouldn’t mind getting him if we traded back, but not at 19. He’s too small for my liking. He’ll end up going to New England and becoming a star because that is a system that would utilize him perfectly. We don’t need a gimmick back, we need a 3 down back.
    I do like Hunt the more I hear about him and the zero fumbles is incredibly impressive. And agree on the Rb from Tennessee. There’s always 1 or 2 players not rally known who get blown up before draft time. His lack of production is pretty eye opening though.
    We should bring back Rogers as a veteran presence and bring in a RB in the 1st or 2nd. I Am starting to like trading back a bit too. We’ll see, we all know Licht is a gambler, and it sure makes the draft interesting.

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    1. 3.1

      jongruden

      CG- saying ” I want Cook” doesn’t surprise me since this would be 3rd yr in a row you wanted a Nole in the first round ha I will have to watch FSU Games next yr to see who you want for us in first round next yr, lol Mark Cook will have a whole article dedicated to this as well, I rather get wr Corey Davis who is a beast and is a do it all wr. or I can be on board with OJ Howard as well

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      1. 3.1.1

        cgmaster27

        Jon good to see you take a break from the Arizona team site to pay us folk at pewter report a visit. Haha
        As for wanting Jalen Ramsey last year, look at any sites rankings and he was the best rookie DB taken last year.
        Look at Jameis’ rookie season, it speaks for itself. As for cook, there’s a reason he’s number one back in some boards ahead of Fournette. If he’s there at 19 it would be complete stupid not to take him.
        I’ve stated a couple times I would take Corey Davis all day if he’s there. But that wasn’t probably one of those weeks you’d didn’t pop on here.
        Maybe just maybe I want these noles on the team because they are good?

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      2. 3.1.2

        scubog

        JonnyG: The FSU players we would like to see in red and pewter is because they are good, not because they wore garnet and gold. Maybe if you observed the aforementioned trio during their college careers you too would have trumpeted their virtues. There once was this little LB who some saw as a Safety. He was a “tweener”. Those of us fortunate enough to watch #10 play knew whichever position he was given he’d be a star. He settled at LB, was given #55 and was pretty good. Sometimes, even though you live in the desert, you come off like some sophisticated New Yorker looking down us Floridians. We homies know what we see.

        Given the way the “Flying Elvises” seem to end up with a disproportionate number of white skilled position players, there’s little doubt that McCaffrey will be joining the Boston Celtics of football this April.

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        1. 3.1.2.1

          jongruden

          FSU Fans are bias to their fore mentioned players forget about the other rb’s like Fournette and McCaffery get FSU Back Cook. I have see countless articles written By FSU Fan Mark Cook for campaigning for his Nole Players in the past like that’s the only school in the country, just calling it like I see “You Can’t handle the truth”- A few good men
          So I’m a New Yorker now? Ha ok, whatever Scu very few so called fans on this web site or in Tampa know as much of the Bucs as I do and you know this.

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    2. 3.2

      Scott Reynolds

      Thanks cgmaster27. It was important to do a running back-centric SR’s Fab 5 because I think they draft one in the first three rounds. Remember, Dirk Koetter is a run-first play-caller. He prefers the play-action passing game, which relies on a strong, consistent running attack, rather than just lining up and slinging the ball 40-50 times per game.

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  4. 4

    Bucnut2

    SR another GREAT fab 5. thank you. I love MacCaffrey and would not be upset if we take him at 10 even though that might be a reach. The guy can flat out play. I like hunt as well and agree with your comment on Jones. Thanks again Scott.

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    1. 4.1

      Scott Reynolds

      Thank you, Bucnut2!

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  5. 5

    Brandonges

    I feel like McCaffrey is going to be overdrafted. He should be a nifty utility player, but I don’t see him as an NFL bell cow back (despite the number of college carries listed in the article). Unless Dalvin Cook or Fournette fall (they won’t), I don’t think there is a back worthy of taking at 19.

    I read an extended piece on Obi Melifonwu recently and this kid is intriguing. Incredible size/speed and good production. I think if Mike Williams and Corey Davis are off the board and an elite DE doesn’t fall, this guy should be the pick. Has the size to play SS and speed to play FS. Should have a similar impact as Kam Chancellor.

    Sad for the kid, but kinda glad to hear the medical concerns on John Ross make him unlikely for the Bucs first round pick. I get that the team desperately needs speed, but it doesn’t seem like he has the build to be a true #2 outside receiver and i would hate to use a first round pick on a slot receiver.

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  6. 6

    surferdudes

    With talent at R.B. deep in this draft, seems no doubt we will up grade an area of need. Why not McCaffery in the first, Hunt in the third? That would be a young cheep dynamic duo moving forward. You could even play them together, moving McCaff all over the field. Draft a good receiver in the second, and we got some fire power.

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    1. 6.1

      Scott Reynolds

      The NFL almost requires a two-back system these days with the pounding running backs take. Getting Christian McCaffrey in the first and Kareem Hunt in the third would be absolutely ideal in my opinion. However, with the Bucs re-signing Jacquizz Rodgers, I think that decreases the chances of that happen.

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  7. 7

    Naplesfan

    I think the Bucs would be crazy to take any running back in the first round, the position simply doesn’t merit a first round pick. In this particular draft which is heavy on talent at several offensive positions, including running backs, I’d prefer to see the Bucs wait til Day 3 to take any RB.

    I know that PR writers and quite a few commenters here seem to be seriously intent on digging Martin’s grave, but I am still not convinced the Bucs are going to just cut him. His NFL career is not over til it’s over, he’s still not that old, and if his health seems restored during the offseason, and if he is willing to negotiate a new contract that is heavy on performance incentives, then he’s still a valuable member of the offense. Those are two big ifs, but we know his upside – the ability to lead the league in rushing production when he’s healthy. His health concerns are mitigated with an incentives-based contract.

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    1. 7.1

      thewbacca

      I agree. Keep Martin at a fair contract based on incentive. I think McCaffrey is more at his ceiling than OJ Howard and Corey Davis, they have way more upside.

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    2. 7.2

      Naplesfan

      By the way, I saw a report today on si.com by Alan Schechter that Roy Cummings was told by the Bucs they intend to hold on to Martin for the foreseeable future. They are not required to make any decisions on him until he completes the third suspended game of the 2017 season … they can void his contract at any point until then and he won’t count against the cap.

      So basically, they can have him practice and play in the pre-season, no matter whom they draft of pick up in free agency, wait and see who’s actually performing in the first three regular season games, and then decide whether to keep or cut him.

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      1. 7.2.1

        plopes808

        That’s great news! I still hope we keep him and he makes a comeback though.

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      2. 7.2.2

        scubog

        That is exactly what I’ve said the Bucs will do with Doug Martin. No need to break up with your girlfriend until you’ve secured another date to the Prom.

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      3. 7.2.3

        Scott Reynolds

        That is true and I’ve stated that as well. Roy Cummings and I are on the same page. Tampa Bay could in fact keep Doug Martin around until Week 3 as they don’t have to pay him anything until after his 3-game suspension to start the season is up.

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    3. 7.3

      Scott Reynolds

      The interesting thing, Naplesfan, is that if the Bucs indeed cut Doug Martin it won’t be until during or after training camp – just in case there is an injury. A LOT can happen between now and then that could in fact keep Martin on the team. You are wise to point out that we may be digging Martin’s grave in Tampa Bay too soon.

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  8. 8

    thewbacca

    Scott you really make me wish Tampa would draft every player you feature on the Fab 5. I still think Corey Davis will be a gem in the NFL but will be unavailable when the Bucs pick. I think the best mix would be: OJ Howard, Budda Baker, and Kareem Hunt.

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    1. 8.1

      Scott Reynolds

      Thanks, thewbacca. I like all of the prospects you mention.

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  9. 9

    plopes808

    IF Cook is there at 19, I’d be for taking him. But I’m torn between that option and trading back, getting McCaffrey AND an extra pick. Lucky for us, the Cook option will likely be off the table by the time we pick.

    I could also see us grabbing a DE, but with the depth of this draft BPA seems like our best route either way. We have enough holes right now that just about any position we hit will fill a need.

    Licht will get us some good pieces again this year and push us closer to being consistent playoff contenders.

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  10. 10

    drdneast

    I agree with you 100 percent about Martin, Naplesfan.
    I am so tired of the media and fans screaming for the team to cut a valuable resource every time a player does something worse than get a traffic ticket in public.
    Generally it is the same people who whine and cry about Buc management letting the player go and calling them stupid when the player returns to his All Pro level of a play less than a year later.
    Martin is doing all the right things to return to the Bucs including checking into a rehab facility. If ASJ had done this he would probably still be with the Bucs today. From what I know about Adderall, it isn’t a very addictive drug, if at all.
    If the Bucs cut Martin, or try to cut his salary to much, he will no doubt be playing in New England, Green Bay, Oakland or Kansas City next year. Any of those teams would be ecstatic to have a player of Martin’s exceptional skill set.
    Instead, some of you Einstein’s want to draft a Davin Cook who has also had injury problems in college and is also reported to like to drink to much and hangs out with gangbangers. Brilliant!
    With a healthy Martin and Rogers, this team would be set at tailback for another couple of years and we can draft players at other positions which this team sorely needs.

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    1. 10.1

      scubog

      I don’t disagree with your point about retaining Doug Martin through Training Camp and then making an evaluation of him just like any other hopeful trying to make the roster. I know this much, a repeat of his poor 2016 season this August would be disastrous if Licht doesn’t have a viable replacement to be the lead back.

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  11. 11

    kram0789

    I don’t think RB is one of our top 3 needs on offense. WR, OL and TE in that order. WR is the obviouse no.1 need. OL is second because we have to protect Winston and we have to open holes for the RB’s. Last year our line was exposed as mediocre. Especially in our losses we were unable to run block and pass protect adequately. No matter how good the skill players are, if we can’t run block and pass protect the offense is going to be inconsistent at best. I think that describes the 2016 Bucs offense. Tight end is a need because Koetter wants to run 2 TE alignments and we do not have a good second TE. So I am hoping for either John Ross or OJ Howard in the first and an OL in the second.

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    1. 11.1

      Scott Reynolds

      I hear what you are saying, kram0789, but the team disagrees with you. I expect the Bucs to stand pat along the OL this year and to draft a RB somewhere in the first three rounds.

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  12. 12

    surferdudes

    Don’t get the love for Druggie Martin. Even if they kept him, he wouldn’t be able to play until week four. Then he would need time to get into playing shape. This draft is loaded with young cheap legs, the Bucs will draft at least one back, resign Rodgers, and have Barber compete with at least one undrafted walk on. Guy’s like a lost love, let Martin go.

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  13. 13

    chetthevette

    Good Fab 5 as usual.
    Why do people think that a new running back will suddenly turn the running game into the juggernaut we fielded 2 years ago.
    What the difference was and still is one player. Logan Mankins. If Sweezy is as good of run blocker as advertised all our current players can gain big yardage. I can’t see McCaffery lasting more than a couple of years as the bell cow back. NFL linebackers and safeties will make mincemeat out of him.
    Our #1 pick should be a slam dunk, not some “I hope this works” pick. I’m now starting to believe that we should entertain thoughts of actually moving up to secure either Mike Williams or Corey Davis. I know it’s most likely a bad idea though, but look how Julio Jones trade turned out. I do know this, if anyone of those guys are there run the pick up.
    Also warming up to picking Howard from Bama. If he blocks as well as advertised take him.

    Here are some thoughts on our current roster.
    why is everyone assuming Vincent Jackson is out of here. If he is healthy and wants to give it another year at a show me price, go for it. He’s a quality player and human being, good for the young guys and we all know he loves Tampa.
    Why is everyone assuming that Dougie is finished here. Same thing with Martin, sign him at a show me price and let him prove it. I don’t know what drugs he was ingesting but that was one expensive habit he had.
    Plus, it’s time for his “good” year. It’s time for JL to make a big ass splash in free agency.
    Eric Berry, Dontari Poe, JPP, Trumain, Kwan short, Calais Cambell, Desaun Jackson, Kenny Britt, Alshon Jefferies, Latavius Murray and some others who could provide an immediate impact.
    It’s time to pull the trigger one a superstar.
    GO BUCS

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    1. 13.1

      Scott Reynolds

      Thanks, chetthevette!

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  14. 14

    GoldsonAges

    RB’s are a dime a dozen. I would draft 1 or even 2 and move on from the aging injury prone Martin and Sims. We need to get some young blood in here at rb

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  15. 15

    drdneast

    You are spot on about the loss of Makin’s resulting in our porous offensive line last year.
    Surferdudes is the exact type of “fan” I was talking about.
    He will be the first to call Bucs management stupid if they cut him and he goes on to excel elsewhere.
    Don’t think for a minute Martin is going to take a huge pay cut from the Bucs in order to run behind an offensive line like last year.
    He has his pride.
    Would you take $3 million from the Bucs to run behind last years offensive line or $3 million to run behind New England’s, Kansas City’s, Green Bay’s or Oakland’s. All Super Bowl contenders and all in need of a RB of Martin’s skill set.
    After Martin serves out his suspension next year he will make $5.7 million, a figure the Bucs can well afford.
    I repeat again, quit trying to save the Bucs money. They have plenty of it and it’s not even yours to save.
    Unless they are going to cut the ticket prices due to the money it would save by slashing his salary (which Is a laugh) then quit worrying about how much money he makes next year. It doesn’t affect you.

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    1. 15.1

      scubog

      I agree with you that holding onto Doug Martin, albeit with some renegotiated contract terms through his three game suspension, is the smart thing to do. At that point it will be like the hotel commercial “Should he stay or should he go?”

      I don’t think there are many teams out there who would see Doug Martin’s 2.9 yds/carry, frequent injuries, unnamed drug use, hefty salary and be too eager to sign him in hopes that he can play like he did in 2015. He probably knows his best chance is here.

      When a guy off the street (Rodgers) who barely knew the plays can come in here and get 4.3yds/carry and an undrafted free agent (Barber) can get 4yds/carry behind the same offensive line, I think it at least hints that the O-line wasn’t totally responsible for the inability to run effectively.

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  16. 16

    Glen Davies

    Aloha from Big Island, Hawaii.

    A point that’s been bugging me for decades is this…so much of sports injuries are unavoidable. That is, dumb bad luck. It doesn’t get near the coverage that the player is/has become “unreliable” Jameis could be labeled that in any offensive play, @ any time (ask Bo Jackson or Joe Theisman). Bret Favre started > 210 consecutive games. Barry Sanders was the only Detroit offensive threat, yet Kiffin couldn’t stop him. Barry was smaller, as this column points out, and very talented, and lucky. As quarterback, all Jameis can do is rotate his shoulder when tackled to lessen clavicle injuries, slide well, and use his other football skills. The rest is sheer luck.
    Sure, one can be in shape,bulk up in the weight room, stretch well, stay hydrated, have good trainers/rehab MDs, etc. The rest is a dice roll. More coverage addressing this is needed, methinks.

    One last point, I wrote PR last Oct saying that da Bucs ran too often on 1st down and were too predictable in that sense. It barely improved (although I didn’t keep numbers). Mebbe a column re: this someday??

    Scott, I love what you do. It keeps us mo bettah informed about our Bucs, w/some 5k miles betwixt us..
    Thank you…

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    1. 16.1

      Scott Reynolds

      Thank you, Glen Davies. I’ll look into the predictability issue to see if there is something there.

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