FAB 3. Biggest Question Marks Surrounding Gruden

There were some reasons why the Glazers decided to fire Jon Gruden despite the fact he had back-to-back 9-7 seasons although the Bucs wasted a 9-3 start in 2008 with four straight losses and failed to make the playoffs as a result. In order to take a fair and balanced look at Gruden there are some legitimate questions that need to be posed about some of his shortcomings.

A Better Offense? More Points?
Now that we have examined some of the positives Gruden could bring to Tampa Bay, let’s address some of the potential negatives. One of the reasons why Koetter is in danger of losing his job is not only the Bucs’ disappointing 3-6 record, it’s the fact that his offense is regressing as the season goes along. Of course Jameis Winston’s hurt injury has something to do with that, but even before Winston’s injury this offense struggled on third down and in the red zone.

Former Bucs head coach Jon Gruden – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs are currently averaging 345.2 yards per game, which ranks 14th in the league. But Koetter’s offense is averaging 19.2 points per game this season, which ranks 22nd in the NFL, and hasn’t scored more than 15 points in the last three games.

Would Gruden be an upgrade and help Tampa Bay’s offense reach its potential? One of the knocks on Gruden during his first stint with the Bucs was that he came to the team with an “offensive guru” label, but his offenses were below league averages in yards per game and points scored. In his seven seasons in Tampa Bay, Gruden’s offense averaged 313.7 yards per game and just 19.2 points per game.

That’s exactly the same amount of points the Bucs are scoring this year and it’s 32 yards less per game. In fact, Gruden’s offense only averaged more than 20 points in three out of the seven seasons he was the team’s head coach.

Bucs’ Offense And Scoring Rankings Under Jon Gruden
2008 – 14th – 341 ypg / 19th – 22.6 ppg
2007 – 18th – 326.8 ypg / 18th – 20.9 ppg
2006 – 29th – 270.1 ypg / 31st – 13.2 ppg
2005 – 23rd – 294.3 ypg / 20th – 18.8 ppg
2004 – 22nd – 310.2 ypg / 23rd – 18.8 ppg
2003 – 10th – 340.8 ypg / 18th – 18.8 ppg
2002 – 24th – 312.6 ypg / 18th – 21.6 ppg

Bucs’ Offense And Scoring Rankings Under Dirk Koetter
2017 – 14th – 345.2 ypg / 22nd – 19.2 ppg
2016 – 18th – 346.4 ypg / 18th – 22.1 ppg
2015 – 5th – 375.9 ypg / 20th – 21.4 ppg*

*Lovie Smith was head coach and Koetter was the offensive coordinator

Now the Bucs did have the top defense in the NFL in 2002 and also in 2005, so the strategy was different as Gruden leaned on that side of the ball and the running game to salt away a combined 26 wins (including postseason) over those two seasons. Scoring has generally increased across the league over the last decade, too.

One thing to consider is that Gruden never had an offense like the one Koetter currently has in Tampa Bay. In terms of sheer talent, wide receivers Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson have more athletic tools than Keenan McCardell and Keyshawn Johnson did. Tight ends Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard had more size, speed and yards-after-catch ability than Ken Dilger and Rickey Dudley did.

Bucs TEs O.J. Howard and Cam Brate – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

The Bucs’ current ground game can’t compare to the Michael Pittman-Mike Alstott backfield Gruden had, but there are a plethora of running backs in this year’s draft that Gruden could choose from if he were hired.

And of course, Gruden didn’t have a quarterback with the talent and ability that Winston possesses, either. He did the best he could with Johnson, Chris Simms, Brian Griese, Bruce Gradkowski and Jeff Garcia.

If Gruden comes back to coach the Bucs he won’t have nearly as good of a defense to start with. There are no Warren Sapps, John Lynches, Derrick Brookses or Ronde Barbers and he’ll need to live up to the offensive mastermind title.

What Offensive System Will Gruden Run?
The Tampa 2 defense that the Bucs made famous under Monte Kiffin during Gruden’s time in Tampa Bay is no longer a viable mainstay defense in the NFL because of the rules that protect wide receivers going across the middle from getting drilled the way they used to when Lynch patrolled the secondary. But the bigger question is what type of offensive system will Gruden deploy?

The West Coast Offense is not as popular or as effective as it used to be in the 1990s and early 2000s. I’m sure Gruden would still keep parts of his old playbook, especially his favorite plays like “Spider 2 Y Banana.” Plays like that are still run by the likes of Andy Reid in Kansas City and Sean Payton in New Orleans.

Gruden has been intrigued by some read option plays after spending time studying Chip Kelly’s offense. Would Gruden incorporate the shotgun, which Winston likes operating out of? Gruden resisted using the shotgun for years in Tampa Bay before finally using it. In fact, the Bucs did not a single play out of shotgun during the entire 2002 season – likely the last team in the NFL to go wire-to-wire without that formation.

Would Gruden adapt his offense to the weapons the Bucs currently have on their roster or would he try to force his system on the team’s receivers, tight ends, running backs and offensive line that are already in Tampa Bay?

ESPN’s Jon Gruden and Scott Reynolds – Photo by: Trevor Sikkema/PR

Gruden has spent years using his ESPN gig to meet with some of the top offensive-minded head coaches and offensive coordinators and studied plenty of film to stay current with the league trends. He’s had a ton of current and former coaches roll through the FFCA headquarters to watch film and talk football with him, too. I bet Gruden’s offense would feature some favorite standbys and some brand new wrinkles, too.

The NFL is the ultimate “what have you done for me lately?” league. Gruden hasn’t installed a game plan, called a play or coached a game since the 2008 season. But he has studied a ton of football for his current job at ESPN and also because he loves it.

Former Bucs head coach Lovie Smith sat in his basement and watched college and pro football during his year out of football, but didn’t come close to studying the game the way Gruden has during his hiatus from coaching.

Questionable Personnel Moves
A bloated salary cap hindered the Bucs during Gruden’s entire tenure in Tampa Bay and many of the personnel moves he wanted to make after winning the Super Bowl came at the expense of releasing some star players – namely defensive tackle Warren Sapp and safety John Lynch – among others. But extremely poor drafting didn’t help, either.

Gruden inherited an aging, veteran team in 2002 and most of the free agents he added to help the team win the Super Bowl were nearing the twilight of their careers. Without two first-round picks and two second-round picks in ’02 and ’03, Gruden was really behind the eight ball in terms of restocking the team with talent.

Former general manager Rich McKay left Tampa Bay after some awful drafts and his replacement, Bruce Allen, along with college scouting director Dennis Hickey, stunk up the joint, too. First round picks like wide receiver Michael Clayton and running back Carnell “Cadillac” Williams were basically one-year wonders, and defensive end Gaines Adams wasn’t much better than Regan Upshaw, another mediocre first-round pass rusher from the 1990s.

Jon Gruden and former Bucs QB Chris Simms – Photo by: Getty Images

Then some middle-round picks like receivers Dexter Jackson and Marquis Walker, running back Travis Stephens and cornerback Alan Zemaitis that didn’t come close to panning out, and quarterback Chris Simms, a third-round pick, never developed into a quality starter. Poor drafting doomed the future of the Bucs and year after year Gruden and Allen needed to rely on free agents – often cheap, aging ones because of the salary cap hell the team was in.

If Gruden is destined to return to Tampa Bay, he’ll need a strong talent evaluator as a general manager. That wasn’t Allen’s forte` as he was more of a salary cap manager. Gruden also shouldn’t be able to handpick his own G.M. as he did with Allen because then there isn’t the necessary pushback and checks and balances in place. The last thing Gruden needs is a “yes man,” who will rubber stamp his every personnel wish.

Gruden needs an experienced talent evaluator he trusts that can tell him, “Jon, I know you like this running back, but I think this is the guy you’ll really want” in a way that convinces Gruden to draft or sign the better player without creating any front office friction. The Glazers had to suffer through a McKay-Gruden feud that lasted a year and a half due to Gruden not getting the players he wanted. Gruden often had a legitimate gripe over some of McKay’s selections, but then blew it once he got a “yes man” in Allen.

If I’m the Glazers I keep general manager Jason Licht and pair him with Gruden. The two have some similarities that would seem to mesh well. Both come from the Midwest – Licht from Nebraska and Gruden from Ohio. Both are blue-collar, beer-drinking, tape-watching grinders that love the game of football. Gruden and McKay didn’t get along well because McKay had a South Tampa attitude, was more of a politician than a football junkie, and loved to play golf too much for Gruden’s liking instead of watching tape.

Licht and Gruden also have the same agent, Bob Lamonte, which is an interesting caveat in this scenario. The Glazers have seen lots of questionable draft picks over the last 15 years and Licht has had far more hits in the draft and even in free agency than his predecessors, Mark Dominik and Allen.

Bucs GM Jason Licht with ex-coach Jon Gruden – Photo by: Cliff Welch/PR

When asked at Gruden’s August press conference if he thought Gruden would return to coaching, Johnson, the Super Bowl-winning quarterback, believed he would with the right circumstances.

“I don’t know, man. It’s got to be perfect,” Johnson told the Tampa Bay Times. “It’s got to have the GM and the quarterback.”

The quarterback is Winston, and the G.M. should be Licht, whom Gruden has already gone on record praising for acquiring enough talent in Tampa Bay to get the Bucs into the playoffs. The fact that they have the same agent in Lamonte could help form that alliance. The Glazers should know better than to give Gruden absolute authority over personnel. It’s not his strong suit. Licht could help Gruden get the right players for the Bucs – not just the players Gruden wants.

How Much Would Gruden Command?
Suppose the Glazers want to give Gruden a second opportunity and suppose he was interested (I’m pretty sure he would be). The next and final step of the process would be contract negotiations. Gruden currently makes $6.5 million per year working at ESPN. In fact, he’s the company’s highest paid employee.

With ESPN struggling financially and laying off producers and some high-paid talent over the last two years, and the network suggesting that it may not renew its contract for Monday Night Football when it expires in 2021. ESPN is currently paying the NFL close to $2 billion for the rights to Monday Night Football. The network would surely not employee Gruden if it opted out of Monday Night Football. That means he would be out of a job in three years.

The word is that Gruden doesn’t get along well with new host Sean McDonough. Gruden had a great rapport with former MNF host Mike Tirico, but isn’t as into his gig as he used to be, and that, combined with the fact that his youngest son will be entering his senior season in high school next year and he’s one year away from being an empty nester is part of the reason why the timing is right for Gruden to return to coaching.

So how much would Gruden command for the buzz he would generate for an NFL town and the Super Bowl-winning experience he would bring to an NFL team? Will Gruden be the league’s first $10 million per year coach? He very well could be. Payton and Seattle’s Pete Carroll are each believed to make $8 million per year, while New England’s Bill Belichick makes $7.5 million per year along with Reid.

Former Bucs head coach Jon Gruden – Photo by: Getty Images

It’s safe to say that Gruden would likely command $8 million per year, but might end up making more. If the Glazers want Gruden to be their next coach the time to act is now. They don’t have to worry about him going to Tennessee or any other college. Gruden laid out the reasons why he’s not interested in becoming a college head coach in my SR’s Fab 5.

Instead, the Glazers need to be very concerned about Jerry and Stephen Jones and the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have the most talented offensive line in football, a dynamic running back and receiver combination in Ezekiel Elliott and Dez Bryant, and a young quarterback that needs to be developed in Dak Prescott.

With Jason Garrett and the Cowboys at 5-4 and more losses coming with Elliott’s suspension, which will last five more games, the Joneses could opt to make a switch at the end of the season and pursue Gruden. And keep in mind that Bisaccia and Marinelli, two former Gruden assistants, are already in Dallas, and that could give Gruden some pause about zeroing in on the Buccaneers.