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We heard it from the moment the Bucs signed Tom Brady, so it is no surprise at all that we’ve been inundated with it again now that the Bucs have lost three of four and hit a sizable bump in the road to the playoffs during the 2020 NFL season.

“Tom Brady and Bruce Arians can’t co-exist! Brady isn’t aggressive enough to play quarterback in this offense! He’s an underneath passer these days, he doesn’t have the arm strength anymore!”

And now, with the Bucs dropping three straight against winning teams, including back-to-back 27-24 games against the Rams and Chiefs, the national media pundits are at it again, spinning ridiculous narratives and catering to the lowest common denominator.

“Brady doesn’t like Arians! There’s friction there! He looks like he’s running someone else’s offense! Where are the ‘Brady plays’? Maybe Brady is just washed.”

If you’ve been around for any of the past negative Brady narratives, you’ve seen how this goes and you should know how much credence to give it. But this time it feels different, as Brady is in a new city with a new coach and a new way of doing things for the first time in his 21-year NFL career. It’s an extremely linear way of thinking, but blaming the marriage of Brady and Arians at the first sign of trouble is an easy path to go down, as it confirms the priors of most analysts and it’s the simplest explanation to concoct without doing the necessary leg work.

Unfortunately for them, confirmation bias is for cowards and ‘the necessary legwork’ is ya boy’s middle name, so it’s time to put an end to the false narrative and shed light on the real problems with this Bucs offense.

The Bucs don’t have a Brady and Arians problem. At all. The Bucs have an Arians and a creating a consistently successful offensive system in 2020 problem. And that would be true for absolutely any quarterback in the NFL that was playing for the Bucs this season (except for maybe Patrick Mahomes since rules don’t apply to him).

Now, this does NOT mean that everything about Arians’ offense can’t be successful in 2020, nor does it mean that there are not awesome components to an Arians offense. There absolutely are! This is NOT a terrible offensive system. It is also not an offensive system that is anywhere close to being what it can be in 2020, and that is the primary issue holding the Bucs talent-laden squad back from being 8-3 or 9-2 instead of 7-5. They are good, not great. But they can be great.

There is a perception around Bruce Arians that he is a quarterback whisperer – probably due to the fact that he co-authored a book with Lars Anderson titled…The Quarterback Whisperer. But the reality is that, while Arians has certainly had the benefit of working with some talented signal callers over his career in the NFL, the results for each passer have been mixed at best, and in the first year of his offense, most quarterbacks have struggled significantly.

Above is a statistical comparison of Brady’s 2020 season (projected out at its’ current rate over four more games) compared to every other quarterback in their first year under Bruce Arians system. I’ve included 2007 Ben Roethlisberger, but it should be noted that Arians offense was nothing like the one we see today, as it was extremely run heavy, and Roethlisberger threw only 404 passes all season long.

As you can see, Brady’s numbers are blowing away the competition as a first-year quarterback in Arians’ offense, posting considerably better marks in completion percentage, touchdowns, sacks, interceptions, total turnovers and EPA (Expected Points Added) than any of the three quarterbacks to play their first seasons under the more modern version of Arians’ offense.

While Brady’s 2020 projections stand out for being impressive numbers across the board, even in a vacuum, the rest of Arians’ quarterbacks have really underwhelmed, especially in their first season. While Ben Roethlisberger flourished in a more sheltered role in an older version of Arians offense and Andrew Luck had some highlight reel moments with a poor supporting cast as a rookie in 2012, the reality is that consistent, high-end play from the quarterback position is NOT something Arians has gotten over the course of his career. His offense has ALWAYS been marred by up-and-down play, largely due to the number of lower percentage throws and high risk endeavors associated with Arians’ passing attack.

When you are primarily a vertically-based offense, you live and die by the sword. You may truly live by it for awhile, posting a bunch of 40-point games, highlight reel plays and churning up yards with the best offenses in the NFL. But efficiency marks are typically down, and turnovers and sacks also come far too often to achieve the type of consistent, game-to-game, regardless-of-opponent offensive success that annual playoff competitors and winners tend to achieve.

That’s probably why Arians hasn’t been an annual playoff winner at any point in his seven years as a head coach. He’s been to the postseason just twice and has only won a single playoff game, on Larry Fitzgerald’s amazing overtime YAC effort in the Packers Hail Mary game during Arians time in Arizona. Arians is a head coach that has done some really good things for quarterbacks in his career, cultivating Ben Roethlisberger into more than a game manager over the course of his time in Pittsburgh, getting high-end plays out of Andrew Luck as a rookie, even when the consistency wasn’t there, and putting Carson Palmer in position to have one of the best quarterback seasons in recent memory in 2015, by far the best season any quarterback has ever had in an Arians offense (until 2020, at least).

These are the best statistical seasons a quarterback has ever had under Arians in his 16 years as an offensive coordinator or as a head coach. You can see that Brady’s numbers are right up there with Palmer’s amazing 2015 season, one of three Pro Bowl years for Palmer in his career.

But that hasn’t been the norm with quarterbacks in Arians career, despite the fact that he’s coached many good ones. The glory didn’t last long with Palmer either, as he tailed off over each of the next two seasons, the Cardinals didn’t make the playoffs either year, and the veteran quarterback retired with 25 turnovers and 62 sacks in his last 23 games under Arians.

Consistent, efficient passing offense
Low turnover numbers
Low sack totals

Those are three critical areas of quarterback play that offenses must achieve and sustain to have continual success in the NFL, and Arians offenses have always struggled with all three. Obviously there are ranges to these failures – Jameis Winston threw 25 of his 30 interceptions on throws that traveled under 20 yards in the air, including 12 on throws under ten yards in the air. He had struggles as a quarterback that extended well beyond an Arians offense that asks for a lot from their signal caller.

But in 2020, Brady is playing about as well as can be expected in 16 years of examining quarterback play in a Bruce Arians’ offense. He’s taken far better care of the football than most Arians’ quarterbacks, his all-time great pocket presence has been critical in keeping sack totals WAY under the totals of former Arians’ quarterbacks and Brady’s raw and adjusted completion percentages show a more accurate passer that is more consistently making the smart throw rather than the risky one that might work out 25 percent of the time, but more often than not is a bad process to follow in order to achieve peak success as an offense.

Brady also has the Bucs offense converting red zone trips into touchdowns at over a 71 percent clip, almost seven full percentile points above where they were a year ago. In fact, no Arians offense ever before has even sniffed what Tampa Bay is doing in the red zone this season, not at any point in his 16 years as an offensive shot caller. Brady has been absolutely deadly in the red area, with 23 touchdowns and zero turnovers.

Yes, through 12 games we have seen a little bit less explosive version of Arians’ offense than we’ve seen in years past. There are a few reasons for that, which I’ll touch on quickly, but first we need to understand that Brady is still throwing more deep balls (20+ yards in the air) than any quarterback in the NFL this year (65), and he’s completed the third-most amount of said passes as well (22). Yes, his accuracy has been good, not great over the past month after a torrid first seven weeks of the season, but he’s been highly aggressive and the Bucs have been one of the biggest splash play teams in the NFL this season as a result.

The vast majority of the Bucs deep ball incompletions have come from miscommunications, not due to accuracy issues or even drops, of which there have been four. I’ve written about this recently, as well as the fact that the Rams and Saints specifically deployed their defenses to take away the deep ball, which Arians kept dialing up anyway. Brady went 0-11 on deep passes in those two games against a ton of two-deep coverages. If you take out those two contests, Brady’s adjusted completion percentage on passes of 20+ yards would be over 46 percent, one of the better marks in the league.

My point isn’t to discount the two games Brady has really struggled in, but to instead show that the larger sample size suggests a quarterback that has shown good accuracy with the deep ball when it’s there, which is important for an Arians offense. In fact, Brady has done essentially everything critical to an Arians offense far better than his predecessors in this system, and it still hasn’t been enough.

But the problems don’t have anything to do with Brady not being able to fit into Arians’ offense. As we’ve just demonstrated, he’s fitting into Arians offense as well as any quarterback ever has, in fact far better than almost every season an Arians quarterback has ever had!

The Bucs don’t have a Brady-Arians problem, they have an Arians problem, but one that can easily be fixed if he’ll change his approach and adapt to three principles that are critical to offensive success in the NFL in 2020.

First, the Bucs HAVE to utilize play-action far more than they currently do. Pro Football Focus’ Mike Renner wrote an awesome article on the Bucs offense that every Tampa Bay fan should read. One part especially stood out for how egregious the Bucs ignorance of the importance of play-action passing has been this season.

“Easily the most glaring is his usage of play action. Palmer utilized play-action fakes on 20% of his dropbacks in 2015 — a figure identical to the league-wide average. Brady has been in a similar range this season at 18.6%, but the league-wide average has shot up to 25.6%.

The benefits of play action are demonstrably massive — the league-wide yards per attempt average goes from 7.2 without it to 8.6 with it, and the average passer rating jumps by over 10 points. Even Brady has gone from a 115.1 passer rating and 9.3 yards per attempt with play-action this year to a 90.2 passer rating and 6.2 yards per attempt without it.”

The Bucs utilize play-action at the third-lowest rate in the NFL (out of 37 quarterbacks), despite the fact that Brady has the fourth-highest passer rating in the league on play-action passes. Almost every quarterback in the NFL is more accurate, more explosive and has a better passer rating on play-action passes than non play-action passes, yet the Bucs aren’t looking at those league-wide results and altering course. The data has been there for years, but Arians and Leftwich have not changed despite ample opportunity.

Another area where the Bucs must alter their current path as an offense is calling more pass plays on first downs. This could be a criticism of Byron Leftwich more than Arians, but by Week 12 the head coach should have stepped in and rectified the issue. Again, Renner is all over it.

“Almost every explosive offense around the league has realized that first down is no longer a running down. Except for the Bucs, that is: They still are a “balanced” attack on first down, passing only 50.6% of the time in the first three quarters of the game (so as not to skew stats by blowouts where they’re either running out the clock or passing to catch up). Compare that to teams such as the Kansas City Chiefs at 66.9% or the Seattle Seahawks at 60.9%, who are doing everything to put their elite quarterbacks in a favorable position to make plays.

When you combine that with how effective the Bucs have been on those early-down runs, it becomes obvious why they’ve made moving the ball look like a chore even with an elite collection of talent. They own the third-worst rushing success rate on first down of any team in the NFL (28.0%), yet they continue to establish it.”

I wrote about the Bucs putrid first down strategy over a week ago, and it comes largely due to a run-first approach that has consistently put the Bucs in poor second and third down situations, while also making them far more predictable to play against.

A vertical-based offense that hunts big passing plays, yet is constantly running and failing on first down and playing from second and third-and-long? Hmmm, I wonder what type of coverage I should play against them to take away long gains in those spots. If you’re looking for a key reason why Brady’s yards per attempt aren’t as high as the Bucs would like them to be, there’s a big part of your answer.

The third and final thing Arians offense must do a better job of is planning for pressure from other teams. Over the course of his career, every NFL team has tried to blitz or pressure Brady as an act of desperation, but in New England that strategy hardly ever worked because the Patriots and Brady had such an elite plan for getting the ball out when under pressure. That’s true of the vast majority of successful offenses in the NFL today, but it hasn’t been true of the Bucs most of the season.

Against the Saints, there were no outlets for Brady when New Orleans sent pressure or got home off games up front, as Arians grew impatient and dialed up tons of vertical route combinations, chasing a 21-point play. Against Los Angeles, Arians and Leftwich stubbornly called for deep ball after deep ball, and Brady put too many balls in harm’s way despite pressure up front and a Rams defense that has allowed less big plays down the field than any defense in the NFL this season. In this week’s Bucs Briefing, I wrote in-depth about the Bucs lack of hot route awareness against the Chiefs blitz-happy defense, and how it ultimately doomed their offense on the second Brady interception of the day.

Talking heads on TV will say “Arians need to do this or that to his offense in order to make it best for Tom Brady”. Stop this. Say this instead: Arians needs to do this or that to his offense in order to make it best for anyone. Tom Brady, Jameis Winston, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck, it doesn’t matter. Arians offense would be a better unit, especially given the direction the NFL has gone offensively and defensively over the past 3-4 years, if they ran more play-action, passed more on first down and had a better plan for getting high percentage completions against pressure, forcing teams to a different strategy defensively as the game went on.

The problem isn’t that Bruce Arians needs to change aspects of his offense for Tom Brady, it’s that Bruce Arians needs to change aspects of his offense – period. For anybody. Three straight seasons without a winning record or a playoff appearance, should have taught Arians that something needs to change. As long as he stubbornly clings to the past in an ever-changing league, this Bucs offense won’t be as good as it can be, and that doesn’t have anything to do with who is quarterbacking it.

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About the Author: Jon Ledyard

Jon Ledyard is PewterReport.com's newest Bucs beat writer and has experience covering the Pittsburgh Steelers as a beat writer and analyzing the NFL Draft for several draft websites, including The Draft Network. Follow Ledyard on Twitter at @LedyardNFLDraft
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WeAretheChamps2002+2021
9 months ago

Great coaches have the ability Arians doesn’t, flexibility and adaptability. There’s a reason why Belichick, Reid, Tomlin, and Harbaugh are still HCs for 10+ years. If the Glazers were to fire the entire coaching staff after this season, the best alternative would be to hire coaches from the Belichick tree to maintain continuity on offense for Brady and maintain the 3-4 under Bowles. It’s funny to think that Jon Gruden’s WC offense, which was point of frustration during Gruden’s later years, would fit Brady perfectly.

drdneast
Reply to  WeAretheChamps2002+2021
9 months ago

You lost me when you suggested the Bucs go to the Patriots coaching tree. Have you seen how their assistants have done as head coaches. Not good.Easier solution would be to fire BA, make Bowles the HC and tell him to hire a flexible, knowledgeable OC.
Sort of like what the Colts did with Dungy. Hired him for defense and told him to keep his hands off the offense.

surferdudes
9 months ago

They are good, not great, but they can be great. Tick, tick, do they have the time to become great Jon? Four games left, the only sure win I can see is Detroit. The Vikes, and Atlanta are going to be dogfights. Both teams have what it takes on offense, and defense to beat us. Regardless, ain’t much time to get it together this year, and next year has more questions then answers. It’s not like this is a young team that just needs time to grow together. This is an old team, old coach, that’s best chance is this… Read more »

buddah
Reply to  surferdudes
9 months ago

This is not an old team, certainly not in the secondary or on the offensive line. They just got beat by 3 points by LA and Kansas City and Football Outsiders had an article today in which they show that KC has the 6th best passig offense in the history of the league. We have 5 losses, 4 to teams that could make the Super Bowl. Minnesota has lost to Dallas and Atlanta. If we can’t beat Minnesota, we don’t deserve to be in the playoffs. Atlanta has lost to Dallas, Carolina and Detroit. It is tough to sweep teams… Read more »

chefboho
9 months ago

This is just confirming what a lot of us already know and we aren’t even coaches. Don’t they have the largest staff and analytics crew in the NFL? How are they not bringing this to light? Yes, the deep ball can still thrive, but play action is vital in today’s NFL and Leftwich and his inept play calling keep this team held back. If Arians reuses to change from his archaic approach then changes need to be made. Its a shame to see a franchise that constantly under utilizes the talent they have.

Eddie
9 months ago

What a wonderful piece! Precisely point out the Tampa Bay problem. Why was Arian hired in the first place? The genus of a mediocre team?

Buc stops here
9 months ago

This is the key statement which I believed in from when Arians was hired. “That’s probably why Arians hasn’t been an annual playoff winner at any point in his seven years as a head coach. He’s been to the postseason just twice and has only won a single playoff game, on Larry Fitzgerald’s amazing overtime YAC effort in the Packers Hail Mary game during Arians time in Arizona.” My expectations was not high with the hiring of Arians, even before they managed to get Tom Brady. I felt he could get them to a winning record. But not for one… Read more »

PewterPose
9 months ago

This is a great article. For those who are ready to blame Leftwich, understand that this is Arians’s offense – the fact that Bruce hasn’t taken over playcalling proves that Byron is calling the types of plays that Arians wants. It’s interesting to me that there is this same rigidness to Bowles’s playcalling. Unless our staff is planning an Ali-like ‘rope-a-dope’ in the playoffs where we flip the script on what we’ve been doing, I don’t like our chances for a championship.

rm71
9 months ago

For Arians to shy away from “no risk it no biscuit” would be an admission that his entire career has been based on a flawed premise. I hope his desire to win outweighs his ego.

The Wall
9 months ago

Great analysis Jon. Unfortunately, even is it’s obvious to everyone else he needs to change, he is either too proud or simply unable to change. I hope I’m wrong.

drdneast
Reply to  The Wall
9 months ago

I concur.

DT25
9 months ago

Excellent article, Jon…read that Renner write-up the other day and figured you’d be all over it. Funny thing here is…you’d think with how often we run on 1st down, we could start mixing in more 1st down play action with a ton of success. Maybe it’s all one big set up for the playoff run? Lol idk, but regardless this staff needs to self scout during this bye week and make the conscious decision to implement some more motion and play action down the stretch. Just a few minor tweaks to help advance this mid-2000s offense into the modern NFL.

RW
RW
9 months ago

Once again great analysis Jon. More play action on first down would help immensely because instead of 2nd and long the Bucs could be in 2nd and short or have another 1st down. That certainly helps to prevent teams from blitzing. One critical problem the Bucs do need to solve is the lack of pass catching production from the running backs. The Bucs average just 2.62 yards per attempt to running backs, far and away worst in the NFL (the league average is 6.51 Y/A). Maybe you let Vaughn have 3rd down or bring someone else in but if Brady… Read more »

Last edited 9 months ago by RW
drdneast
Reply to  RW
9 months ago

I suggest we start using our rookie RB instead of Twinkle Toes.

plopes808
Reply to  drdneast
9 months ago

Yes, I’m confused as to why Shady is still on this team when we could be giving Vaughn more looks. Not to mention why they keep switching out Rojo for Fournette

BleedOrange78
9 months ago

Excellent piece. I don’t understand why we have HC’s who absolutely refuse to maximize their player’s talents and/or make any adjustments to their schemes when things don’t work. Absolutely maddening. If this team doesn’t make the playoffs, Arians needs to go (because he will not have learned a damn thing).

drdneast
Reply to  BleedOrange78
9 months ago

It’s a problem this team has had since its inception.

toucan
9 months ago

Well expressed article Jon. Many of us have similar thoughts. Wish Bruce would come on board. RoJo up the middle on first down is NOT effective. Throw for 8 and let RoJo get a 1st down. Predictability is a bad thing.

Last edited 9 months ago by toucan
toucan
9 months ago

The D needed to employ more cover 2 against Hill last week. Davis is good but if Hill gets past any CB in the league forget it .He is gone. He is too fast to catch with a QB who is the best in the NFL. We saw that last Monday night.

drdneast
9 months ago

Once again Jon, excellent analysis. I just don’t understand how all of this could be, since according to Arians the Bucs self analyze evert week,, they don’t need analytics. I don’t think there is one fan out here who hasn’t complained about the Bucs running the ball so much on first. down. Hell, we want to see the Bucs run the ball, just not so much on first down. The most aggravating thing about your article is it doesn’t take a massive amount of overhaul to rectify the situation and still keep BA’s same philosophy. Unfortunately I don’t know if… Read more »

PatrioticChief
9 months ago

I really like how you have contextualized this in the context of Arians history. I think that context is sorely missing. I also like how you phrased this conclusion: Arians needs to do this or that to his offense in order to make it best for anyone

Arians doesn’t need to complete to scrap his system. He just needs to apply some more universally successfully practices to update his system.

Bucco-Bruce
9 months ago

I think if things don’t change much then we should go after Eric Bienemy as a new head coach!! He knows how to call plays and coaches from Andy Reid tree would do much better!!

scubog
9 months ago

My goodness how our expectations have changed over the past 4 decades. I suppose that’s a good thing. Our “Super Bowl or Bust” mindset has just gotten a bit out of hand when we’re already planning and maybe even hoping to fire the coaching staff of a 7 dash 5 team that very well could win out to finish 11 dash 5. Here’s what I know. We simply don’t match up with the well-balanced and physical Saints team and got snowballed. We played a decent Bears team and lost by 1 point. We played one of the best teams in… Read more »

surferdudes
Reply to  scubog
9 months ago

It doesn’t matter what our expectations are Scu, what were the Glazers expectations for this season? That’s the real question. If it’s super bowl or bust, they’re going to be disappointed. They fired Dungy who transformed the franchise. They fired Gruden who won us our only S.B.. This team is built for today. This is not a building project where you’re looking for progress. I think they stay the course through next year, but would not be shocked if Arians is canned.

Naplesfan
Reply to  scubog
9 months ago

The problem, scubog, is that the 7-5 team is, in the second half of this season, losing games at a rate that this season will end up at 8-8, perhaps even 7-9. Quality coaches make adjustments, game to game, throughout a season, and do not stubbornly stick to a given strategy that clearly isn’t working. It’s not that anything less than a Super Bowl this year is a failure … but teams are supposed to get better through the course of a season, and not worse. Jon Gruden, still the winningest coach in Bucs history, was 9-3 at this point… Read more »

scubog
Reply to  Naplesfan
9 months ago

That’s the point Naples. No one, including the Glazers, was thinking about firing Jon Gruden at the 9 dash 3 point. It was the team’s unexpected and rapid decline to 9 dash 7 after Monte’s departure that led to Chucky’s demise. Should Arians and staff fail to at least reach the playoffs, I suspect there could be a major regime change…….just not now.

cbbucfan
9 months ago

Coach Arians is correct when he says that the team has to get off to better starts in games and not be constantly playing from behind. The running game and play action passing game are not as much of a threat to defenses when you are behind on the scoreboard so often. It’s been a problem most of the season, and especially over the past month. And a lot plays into this: Better game planning, better focus by the players, better success rate on first down by the offense, better success rate converting third downs by the offense, better pass… Read more »

Naplesfan
Reply to  cbbucfan
9 months ago

It is true that the defense is not doing well in the second half of the season. But it is also true that the offense has a role in the defense not playing so well. When the offense goes three and out over and over again in the first half, the defense has to do a LOT more work to keep the other team from scoring. The very best way to keep the other team’s offense from scoring is to sustain drives by our own offense. Get good yardage on first down (don’t run every goddammned first down and 10),… Read more »

BigSombrero
9 months ago

It’s an interesting piece. I won’t say stats are for losers, but I will say that you can’t conveniently cut out the stats you don’t like to make your point. I am reminded of a deep pass that counted as play action in your stat argument: The flea flicker to Watson. Watson was wide open and fully behind the defense. If Brady makes a better throw, that is a walk in touchdown. Instead, it was a wobbler that Watson had to stop running, turn around, and make a shoe string catch on. It will count as a completed deep shot… Read more »

RW
RW
Reply to  BigSombrero
9 months ago

Give it a rest Big Hat. You conveniently ignore mountains of data and focus on one play to make a point. And you certainly are a Leopard when it comes to Brady!

BigSombrero
Reply to  RW
9 months ago

Its a play that personifies the issue with Brady. It will go down as a positive, but it wasn’t a great pass.

That said, I didn’t want to write a novel.

I did take the time to write a longer entry in Cooks latest column. Take a minute and check it out. I welcome your thoughts as a Patriot fan who is here for Brady.

Dave
Reply to  BigSombrero
9 months ago

Aka you think Brady sucks and can’t throw deep. Even though he either leads the NFL, or is top 2 in big time throws, and tight window throws. I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t lead those categories if every time he throws deep(which he does more than any other QB in the NFL), it’s completely inaccurate and off target. And what’s a miracle PI? 9 times out of 10, a PI is committed because if not, it’s a completion. I’ve never heard of a PI being a miracle for the QB lol. Good god. That’s such a biased comment meant to… Read more »

Last edited 9 months ago by Dave
plopes808
9 months ago

This article is 1000% correct, please be sure to have BA read this in its entirety asap

BDOG
9 months ago

jon, good luck in your sports career! love your analysis, insight, and commentary. i hope you find a career position that rewards you for your passion, enthusiasm and knowledge. i’ve lived and played fb throughout my entire young years, an absolute joy reading your analysis and see your passion. Best wishes, TY
ps. wouldn’t take any meaningful criticism from this group and obviously appears most concur with my feelings.

Bill
9 months ago

I have to agree it seems that even when the Buc’s are behind at the half there is no second half adjustments at all. At this point in the season the league now has our number and BA may as well hand our play book over to every team we play because they know what we are going to do. It is similar on the other side of the ball too. Our defense makes very few adjustments regardless of the score. I am still flabbergasted by the fact that with the talent we have offensively we aren’t scoring 40 points… Read more »

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