you have to look to the other side of the ball if we want some finger pointing in terms collapse.
team sport so blame is all around
kicking out the EZ to basically concede a FG (lack of talent and coaching and injuries)
offensive ineptitude (injuries and coaching)
running 30 times as a game strategy (coaching)
Dialing back the blitzing because you can't cover the back end (lack of talent, injuries and coaching)
Not able to get to QB with 4 (injuries, lack of talent and coaching)
Terrible RZ defense (lack of talent and coaching )
etc
Bet that 2025 Ohio State game filled you with a lot of confidence in how well Arch can read college defenses.The defense didn't need to be great last year. They just needed to get off the field at key times. That is where a good coach will come into play. They fell apart at key times last year and that is on the coach. I think there's plenty of reasons why we fell apart last year and our hc was one of them.
that Bucs defense was so bad during the final 6 game collapse that they ranked 6th best in points allowed during that time span of just 21.2 points per game.
all kidding aside, the defense was ass but you have to look to the other side of the ball if we want some finger pointing in terms collapse. Outside of the Atlanta game collapse, the other losses to inferior teams were primarily offensive ineptness driven
I know it helped me make my decision on ol’ Arch’s capabilities.
relevance to my post?
Lends context to why you're undermining the offense. We all saw what happened. You’re the only one who came away with the lame brained idea that the QB caused the downturn.Bet that 2025 Ohio State game filled you with a lot of confidence in how well Arch can read college defenses.The defense didn't need to be great last year. They just needed to get off the field at key times. That is where a good coach will come into play. They fell apart at key times last year and that is on the coach. I think there's plenty of reasons why we fell apart last year and our hc was one of them.
that Bucs defense was so bad during the final 6 game collapse that they ranked 6th best in points allowed during that time span of just 21.2 points per game.
all kidding aside, the defense was ass but you have to look to the other side of the ball if we want some finger pointing in terms collapse. Outside of the Atlanta game collapse, the other losses to inferior teams were primarily offensive ineptness driven
I know it helped me make my decision on ol’ Arch’s capabilities.
relevance to my post?
In reality, its really just due to your crush on Arch.
Lends context to why you're undermining the offense. We all saw what happened. You’re the only one who came away with the lame brained idea that the QB caused the downturn.Bet that 2025 Ohio State game filled you with a lot of confidence in how well Arch can read college defenses.The defense didn't need to be great last year. They just needed to get off the field at key times. That is where a good coach will come into play. They fell apart at key times last year and that is on the coach. I think there's plenty of reasons why we fell apart last year and our hc was one of them.
that Bucs defense was so bad during the final 6 game collapse that they ranked 6th best in points allowed during that time span of just 21.2 points per game.
all kidding aside, the defense was ass but you have to look to the other side of the ball if we want some finger pointing in terms collapse. Outside of the Atlanta game collapse, the other losses to inferior teams were primarily offensive ineptness driven
I know it helped me make my decision on ol’ Arch’s capabilities.
relevance to my post?
In reality, its really just due to your crush on Arch.
lol. Not at all man. Baker rebounds and he’s my guy.
baker had his worst year as a buc and somehow has the most support
not sure if you are in the sign him now camp or not, but I’m simply suggesting given his mediocre play, let’s see how he does this year before we go throwing 50M a year at him.
It may well work out that Baker wan Abut that way, too, but signing him now is the cheaper, most secure option.
You consider the worst case scenario, you don’t plan for it.
You’ve literally already made the case for drafting Arch in another thread. It’s the reason why you’re contorting an argument about how the defensive meltdown is actually Baker’s fault.
It may well work out that Baker wan Abut that way, too, but signing him now is the cheaper, most secure option.
You consider the worst case scenario, you don’t plan for it.
You’ve literally already made the case for drafting Arch in another thread. It’s the reason why you’re contorting an argument about how the defensive meltdown is actually Baker’s fault.
Given guys like Love, Purdy, Goff, Lawrence all signed for 50M + i would suggest that is his floor
Given guys like Lamar, Allen, and Burrow signed for 55M, i would suggest that is his ceiling
The fantasy of him signing before the season for less than guys like Purdy and Love is not living in the real world.
so with those floors and ceilings why rush it?
We have done right by Baker giving him a third or fourth chance, whatever you want to call it. He is not going to just up and leave us (not that he can with franchise tag at our disposal) because we made him play out his final year.
The Bucs may very well sign him before the season (i hope not) but it wont be for less than 50M per year.
Nope, you’ve gotten two below market deals with Baker, he’s exceeded expectations (and since we’re being honest; after Brady, there were none that could utilize the commitment to talent and still win games), and has signed two team friendly deals. I don’t see anything in his behavior that indicates he expects to max out, but it’s possible.It may well work out that Baker wan Abut that way, too, but signing him now is the cheaper, most secure option.
You consider the worst case scenario, you don’t plan for it.
You’ve literally already made the case for drafting Arch in another thread. It’s the reason why you’re contorting an argument about how the defensive meltdown is actually Baker’s fault.
Given guys like Love, Purdy, Goff, Lawrence all signed for 50M + i would suggest that is his floor
Given guys like Lamar, Allen, and Burrow signed for 55M, i would suggest that is his ceiling
The fantasy of him signing before the season for less than guys like Purdy and Love is not living in the real world.
so with those floors and ceilings why rush it?
We have done right by Baker giving him a third or fourth chance, whatever you want to call it. He is not going to just up and leave us (not that he can with franchise tag at our disposal) because we made him play out his final year.
The Bucs may very well sign him before the season (i hope not) but it wont be for less than 50M per year.
Nope, you’ve gotten two below market deals with Baker
If you're looking at the respective markets, no they weren't.
He was a backup QB when he signed with us initially. I guess you could make the argument that he could've gotten a 1-yr, $5-$6M deal.
When he signed his 3-year deal, it was fair market considering his recent history. Now, obviously, he's outperformed both to this point.
But, they were fair at the time.
Obviously, I have given my input on a new deal if I was the GM. But, I'm sure Licht will pay more.
Nope, you’ve gotten two below market deals with Baker, he’s exceeded expectations (and since we’re being honest; after Brady, there were none that could utilize the commitment to talent and still win games), and has signed two team friendly deals. I don’t see anything in his behavior that indicates he expects to max out, but it’s possible.It may well work out that Baker wan Abut that way, too, but signing him now is the cheaper, most secure option.
You consider the worst case scenario, you don’t plan for it.
You’ve literally already made the case for drafting Arch in another thread. It’s the reason why you’re contorting an argument about how the defensive meltdown is actually Baker’s fault.
Given guys like Love, Purdy, Goff, Lawrence all signed for 50M + i would suggest that is his floor
Given guys like Lamar, Allen, and Burrow signed for 55M, i would suggest that is his ceiling
The fantasy of him signing before the season for less than guys like Purdy and Love is not living in the real world.
so with those floors and ceilings why rush it?
We have done right by Baker giving him a third or fourth chance, whatever you want to call it. He is not going to just up and leave us (not that he can with franchise tag at our disposal) because we made him play out his final year.
The Bucs may very well sign him before the season (i hope not) but it wont be for less than 50M per year.
the first deal he had no choice because the dude was playing practice squad Jason Pierre Paul. That was clearly a "we will give you minimum but you can start here"
The second was market value at the time and given it was just 1 year, they gave him a nice 3 year, $100M but weren't going to pay him top dollar
Should they choose to sign him again, his third contract with the team, it will be for market value.
I dont think by any stretch Baker is pulling Brady (married to billionaire wife, sacrificing salary to win). Again, i am not saying Baker is getting 55. That would be if the dude turns into a Hall of Famer again. But if he does his typical 28 TDs, 10 INTs; then yeah he may get that 50 burger in line with other recent QB contracts.
Again, i am not saying Baker is getting 55. That would be if the dude turns into a Hall of Famer again. But if he does his typical 28 TDs, 10 INTs; then yeah he may get that 50 burger in line with other recent QB contracts.
so the scope of this multiple thread debate is $5 million, give or take?
Again, i am not saying Baker is getting 55. That would be if the dude turns into a Hall of Famer again. But if he does his typical 28 TDs, 10 INTs; then yeah he may get that 50 burger in line with other recent QB contracts.
so the scope of this multiple thread debate is $5 million, give or take?
Well, assuming that Baker is our guy, yes. If Baker shits the bed with 22 TDs and 15 INT (11 game extrapolation) then i am not sure he is the starting QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs in 2027.
Which is why for a measly $5M per year, it would make sense to wait until the season plays out.
Yes, especially if the cap goes up significantly next season, as will the positional increase after a successful season, $5m will make a huge difference. Thats probably not even in OBP’s strategic matrix.Again, i am not saying Baker is getting 55. That would be if the dude turns into a Hall of Famer again. But if he does his typical 28 TDs, 10 INTs; then yeah he may get that 50 burger in line with other recent QB contracts.
so the scope of this multiple thread debate is $5 million, give or take?
Well, assuming that Baker is our guy, yes. If Baker shits the bed with 22 TDs and 15 INT (11 game extrapolation) then i am not sure he is the starting QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs in 2027.
Which is why for a measly $5M per year, it would make sense to wait until the season plays out.
I mean, even if the worst case scenario does happen, there isn’t anyone coming out that will give you Baker-level play, where we’ll be picking.
I’m sure none of that is relevant.
Next argument.
Yes, especially if the cap goes up significantly next season, as will the positional increase after a successful season, $5m will make a huge difference. Thats probably not even in OBP’s strategic matrix.Again, i am not saying Baker is getting 55. That would be if the dude turns into a Hall of Famer again. But if he does his typical 28 TDs, 10 INTs; then yeah he may get that 50 burger in line with other recent QB contracts.
so the scope of this multiple thread debate is $5 million, give or take?
Well, assuming that Baker is our guy, yes. If Baker shits the bed with 22 TDs and 15 INT (11 game extrapolation) then i am not sure he is the starting QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs in 2027.
Which is why for a measly $5M per year, it would make sense to wait until the season plays out.
I mean, even if the worst case scenario does happen, there isn’t anyone coming out that will give you Baker-level play, where we’ll be picking.
I’m sure none of that is relevant.
Next argument.
if worse case scenario happens, 22 TDs/15 INTs we likely didn't have a good year. Maybe 6-11? Could be worse? 6 wins would get us picking in top 10. 6-11 also spells the end of Todd Bowles. 22 TDs likely means Robinson didn't work Coen like magic and isn't an option for the head coach role.
and while of course none of us want to start over and take a risk on a young QB. It may be a likely option if we get an new head coach.
2026 new head coaches
Category 1
Arizona - Mike LaFleur - jettisoned Murray. Drafted Beck, looks to be rolling with Brissett/Minshew carousal on way to one of the top QBs in the 2027 draft.
Atlanta - Kevin Stefanski -Sure Penix opening as 1 on depth chart but Tua was signed and he likely can not wait to put him in when Penix flames out
Las Vegas - Klint Kubiak - #1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Also brought in Kirk Cousins
Miami Dolphins - Jeff Hafley - brought in Malik Willis.
Category 2
Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo changed out their long time coaches for mediocrity/losing fatigue.
Category 3
Cleveland, Tennessee, and NY Giants trying another season with their rookie QBs with new coaches.
So what bucket would the Bucs fall in? Clearly not the rookie QB bucket category 3. Arizona, Miami, and Vegas had guys like Murray, Tua, and Geno. Was Baker usually grouped with them over his time in Tampa, maybe slightly better? You then have Buffalo and Baltimore with top 5 QBs and the fatigue of long time coach. Fatigue with Bowles? Baker playing top 5 level in 2024? It's a gray area for sure because i think we are a bit of both category 1 and 2 which is why there's no telling what could happen in the scenario of a Baker further regression.
I'm not too keen on the rookies coming out next year, but i keep seeing guys like Dante Moore, Oregon and Arch Manning, Texas, high on mock drafts. We would likely have to trade up to get them but not out of sight with a top 10 pick.
See others like Brendan Sorsby Texas Tech, Jayden Maiava, Southern Cal, and Darian Mensah, Miami listed high too but to me these are just random names at this point.
The best free agent QBs that might become available will be Baker Mayfield and Matthew Stafford so i understand that Baker gives us the best chance to win but at a certain point, they may ask is 9,10,8, and 6 wins really the progress we want to see. Is this even entertaining football. In this scenario, the first 2 years were! the last 2....not so much for the fan base.
Here's how i see it
Scenario 1 - Baker performs at 2024 levels or close to it. He resigns with Bucs at $52-$55M per year; maybe a 4 or 5 year deal. Bucs undoubtedly a playoff team. This would have shown that 2 out of his 3 year contract were exceptional and he's a top 10 guy easily.
Scenario 2 - Baker performs slightly better than 2025 totals, close to 2023 totals but is not the 2024 guy. Think he will command $50M. Could we maybe get him for $45M? Bucs likely fringe playoff team, what they've been, 9 wins. In this scenario, you have to resign Baker. Sure, it's not good enough to be .500 but as Darnold showed (at $33M per year), if you have a good defense and run game, you could win.
Scenario 3 - Baker performs at 22 TDs, 15 INTs. Bucs likely double digit losses, carrying over their post bye week whoas last year. In this scenario, Bowles is fired. New Head coach. But let's say we want to keep Baker. He is likely getting a 2 year, $80M deal. Wouldn't be surprised in this scenario if they didnt draft a QB in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round of the 2027 draft. This would have shown clear regression each and every year of the 3 year deal.
also, what if something crazy happens like Joe Burrow forces his way out of Cincy? That might be an interesting trade thought.
so i'm with you in that there's a 90% chance that Baker is starting for the Bucs next year but that's a fluid percentage at this rate and i think Bucs brass is trying to determine if hes a bridge guy or a next half decade guy.
and while of course none of us want to start over and take a risk on a young QB. It may be a likely option if we get an new head coach.
I know you don't think much of Mayfield but isn't possible Mayfield sees that change as a possibility even if he plays okay? He likely sees a good market for his services outside the Bucs
I know you don't think much of Mayfield but isn't possible Mayfield sees that change as a possibility even if he plays okay? He likely sees a good market for his services outside the Bucs
Correct.
Which is why, if you think "he's the guy", you get the deal done now.