we’re light on starting corners…ok, maybe.
However, and as Fire points out, Anzalone’s going to need to stay healthy…who’s our 31 year old’s backup?
right totally agree with both of these thoughts. The seemingly obvious CHINK in the armour.
By pointing out a potential plan/thought process I am not endorsing it. I am just saying that the defense so far is MORE Bowles than ever. We have a surplus of hybrid nickel style safety/CB guys (totally Bowles), but do we have outside corners? We have a downhill LB drafted, but do we have LBs capable of stopping the thing that killed us most in 2025, short passing to RBs and TEs
And the team is still THIN and very susceptible to injury, but Bowles (not Licht) seems to deal with that by trying to be multiple everywhere, as opposed to very good and/or deep everywhere
The one thing I will say is that two breathing humans might perform better at ILB compared to 2025. LVD is hopefully a HOFer, but he was absolutely picked on over and over and over last season, ESPECIALLY down the stretch.
The potential for this season runs from 3 wins to 11 lol, but clearly the plan seems to be to let Bowles build a defense that he believes in
It is odd, that we strengthened the run defense, when many teams found it so easy to throw against us…
"Odd" is certainly one way of putting it. Even though the pass defense has been one of the worst in the league over the last three years, we aren't going to be happy until we are a top 4 rush defense, baby.
Is the plan to sign anither cover ‘backer after camp cuts? Cuz I’m really curious as to the plan at ILB myself.
The problem with that plan is damn-near every team in the league needs linebackers that can cover better. Those guys don't hit the waiver wire very often. This will be year eight with Bowles as defensive playcaller and they haven't found one. Either it's not an important aspect for him or they are incompetent at finding the right guy. Neither is very good.
It is not that important to Bowles. Bowles wants to sell out to stop the run and will dial up run blitzes to do it. The problem is that third and long has become convertible with his defensive alignments playing more off coverage and quarters. Third and long can work in a defenses favor if you play tight m2m coverage or tight cover 2/cover 3.
FWIW, the Bucs have an easy path to at least basic defensive improvement and probably even a win or two.
I already mentioned ILB, just being league average at ILB would be a HUGE improvement.
Just having an actual NFL-level Special Teams unit would be a HUGE improvement. I think the average starting field position for teams last season was the 29 yard line. The Bucs ST unit was so bad they conceded the 35 yard line all the way down the stretch. "Analytics" types might say thats conceding a FG each game. 3 of the Bucs critical losses at the end are 3points or less.
Just being NFL average in Red Zone. The Bucs were the worst NFL defense in Red zone. Thats just a matter of being stout against the run and communicating better (being more disciplined). I think the 2023 the defense is top 10 in scoring. The 2023 defense gave up MORE yards per game than the 2025 defense, but they had something like a 45% Red Zone TD rate. In 2025 its 69%
Just fix red zone and the defense should be better overall, maybe even substantially.
.the guy has had a defense that has regressed in each of the last 3 years.
Sure more talent can be added to the squad. Other than the 2020,2021 squads...could you argue this 2026 defense is the best in the Bowles era talent wise?
Well, the 2026 defense should be the most talented 2022 to 2026, yes, but not even close to 2020/21 and I think that is the disconnect between the "its Bowles" crowd and the Bucs leadership.
And here's a really simple way to see it.
In 2020/2021 the Bucs have one of the best VETERAN-LADEN run defenses in the league (2nd and 10th, I think). That is because the D line is Vea, Suh and Gholston and 2 great OLBs (JPP and Barrett) and TWO all Pro ILBs (29 Yrd old LVD and a just starting to slide White). Those players DOMINATE the LOS. DOMINATE. They have 39 sacks and 65 TFL. They are playing on the other side of the LOS so that why they are 2nd and 10th in run defense (YPC), respectively.
Behind them cleaning everything up is ALL WORLD 29 year old LVD 83.8 PFF coverage grade, 6th of among all LBs
In 2025, the same players in those front 7 roles create only 29 sacks (compared to 39) and 49 TFL (compared to 65 for 2020) and this time behind them to clean it all up they have FIFTH ROUND SVD (compared to 5th overall White ) and 36 yr old LVD, together arguably the WORST coverage LB group in the league. For example, 83.8 PFF LVD in 2020 is 45.1 in 2025.
So, even if 2026 talent is the best of 2022 to 2025 its still very young and worlds away from 2020/2021. Sort of tallest midget of the actual, post SB Bowles era. And even worse they may very well UNDERPERFORM their talent because Bowles may have lost some of them.
Bain isnt single-handedly changing the defensive culture as a rookie, even Sapp and Brooks could not do that.
point being is that 2026 would be most talented since 2021; meaning better than 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025; thus....we should see improvement no?
Yeah, I’m not really curious. Anzalone helps, but there’s still (a slightly smaller) hole in the middle, but Anzalone is going to be on the field, a lot. The middle is till open.It is odd, that we strengthened the run defense, when many teams found it so easy to throw against us…
"Odd" is certainly one way of putting it. Even though the pass defense has been one of the worst in the league over the last three years, we aren't going to be happy until we are a top 4 rush defense, baby.
Is the plan to sign anither cover ‘backer after camp cuts? Cuz I’m really curious as to the plan at ILB myself.
The problem with that plan is damn-near every team in the league needs linebackers that can cover better. Those guys don't hit the waiver wire very often. This will be year eight with Bowles as defensive playcaller and they haven't found one. Either it's not an important aspect for him or they are incompetent at finding the right guy. Neither is very good.
I assume we knew this was the issue, but they think they have added enough to generate sacks/pressure & run the multiple scheme thing behind the pressure package.
The “chink in the armor” thing, is a big thing. As has been pointed out, this is Bowles type of defensive roster. For me, the jury is out on whether he can improve it to average, but I do think, he thinks, he has a plan and some of the players.
Agree with Biggs & Olaf that we aren’t going to get a coverage backer, and that we don’t have enough corners. Maybe we can get some rotational veteran CB’s, but I’m not so sure that’s the plan.
It will have to be proven to fans that the biggest remaining hole on the defense, the middle/secondary, has somehow been improved.
Maybe there’s some combination of talent and scheme tweak that allows them to achieve it, but I’m not seeing it.
Mayfield magic may have to carry this roster again which I think bothers me the most with what Licht and Bowles have done with the off season so far. So I guess Mayfield is going to earn that contract after the conclusion of 2026 season. But people presuming it is because of Bowles, Robinson, going to help Mayfield are in for a rude awakening. One constant throughout Mayfields career is that he has been surrounded by mid or below average coaches and he still competes.
I wouldn't surprised if Mayfield puts on a solid season but the rest of the coaching staff underwhelms and this team finishes 8-9. People are saying that isn't possible but there have been many QBs in NFL history that perform really well individually but the team and coaches underwhelm. Stafford was stuck in purgatory for a long time with the Lions as an example.
But people presuming it is because of Bowles, Robinson, going to help Mayfield are in for a rude awakening
Quite possibly the least informed take of the day. If you don’t think Robinson will help everything on this offense, you just don’t follow football very closely. McDaniel included, Tampa hired the best OC available this off-season.
.the guy has had a defense that has regressed in each of the last 3 years.
Sure more talent can be added to the squad. Other than the 2020,2021 squads...could you argue this 2026 defense is the best in the Bowles era talent wise?
Well, the 2026 defense should be the most talented 2022 to 2026, yes, but not even close to 2020/21 and I think that is the disconnect between the "its Bowles" crowd and the Bucs leadership.
And here's a really simple way to see it.
In 2020/2021 the Bucs have one of the best VETERAN-LADEN run defenses in the league (2nd and 10th, I think). That is because the D line is Vea, Suh and Gholston and 2 great OLBs (JPP and Barrett) and TWO all Pro ILBs (29 Yrd old LVD and a just starting to slide White). Those players DOMINATE the LOS. DOMINATE. They have 39 sacks and 65 TFL. They are playing on the other side of the LOS so that why they are 2nd and 10th in run defense (YPC), respectively.
Behind them cleaning everything up is ALL WORLD 29 year old LVD 83.8 PFF coverage grade, 6th of among all LBs
In 2025, the same players in those front 7 roles create only 29 sacks (compared to 39) and 49 TFL (compared to 65 for 2020) and this time behind them to clean it all up they have FIFTH ROUND SVD (compared to 5th overall White ) and 36 yr old LVD, together arguably the WORST coverage LB group in the league. For example, 83.8 PFF LVD in 2020 is 45.1 in 2025.
So, even if 2026 talent is the best of 2022 to 2025 its still very young and worlds away from 2020/2021. Sort of tallest midget of the actual, post SB Bowles era. And even worse they may very well UNDERPERFORM their talent because Bowles may have lost some of them.
Bain isnt single-handedly changing the defensive culture as a rookie, even Sapp and Brooks could not do that.
point being is that 2026 would be most talented since 2021; meaning better than 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025; thus....we should see improvement no?
absolutely
I think in this thread somewhere that the defensive fixes (including a special team fix) are not that difficult and would each have a big impact. Stop giving away a FG a game by have a kickoff coverage team, etc.
Injuries are a wildcard always but Licht has given Bowles what he should want
It is odd, that we strengthened the run defense, when many teams found it so easy to throw against us…
"Odd" is certainly one way of putting it. Even though the pass defense has been one of the worst in the league over the last three years, we aren't going to be happy until we are a top 4 rush defense, baby.
Is the plan to sign anither cover ‘backer after camp cuts? Cuz I’m really curious as to the plan at ILB myself.
The problem with that plan is damn-near every team in the league needs linebackers that can cover better. Those guys don't hit the waiver wire very often. This will be year eight with Bowles as defensive playcaller and they haven't found one. Either it's not an important aspect for him or they are incompetent at finding the right guy. Neither is very good.
I’m telling you, if Rodriguez was on the board, we were still passing on him.
People are saying that isn't possible but there have been many QBs in NFL history that perform really well individually but the team and coaches underwhelm.
I agree with that, but you definitely have an odd take on Robinson, comparing to Clyde C because he runs 12?
It will have to be proven to fans that the biggest remaining hole on the defense, the middle/secondary, has somehow been improved.
Maybe there’s some combination of talent and scheme tweak that allows them to achieve it, but I’m not seeing it.
totally agree
Bowles talks like Scott is going to play like an LB, at or near the line and covering the TE and RB. And blitzing.
I’m telling you, if Rodriguez was on the board, we were still passing on him.
Possibly and if they did I dont think that would be due to the Licht-side evaluation. It would be the Bowles side.
If they said in 2025 it was "injuries" and still in a defensive rebuild then of course in 2026 they are going to try to give Bowles what Bowles thinks will work best on D.
That has to be frustrating for many, but it is probably the right approach IF you commit to keeping Bowles at the end of 2025.
Right on cue . . . Josh Q
Bowles will blitz MORE
The 2025 blitz rate of 33.0% is the lowest of the post-Super Bowl era. That isn’t an accident. That’s Bowles hedging.
Look at the 2025 defensive front and you can see why. Calijah Kancey missed time, which meant fewer one-on-ones for the rest of the front. Haason Reddick never panned out opposite Yaya Diaby. Vita Vea played a career-high in snaps because there was nobody behind him to spell. Every time Bowles wanted to send five or six, he had to ask himself whether the four left in coverage could hold up long enough, and whether the four rushing would actually get home. The answer often pushed him toward a more conservative call.
The blitz rate goes back up. Not all the way to 2020’s 41%, but comfortably north of last year’s 33%. The pressure rate climbs from 39.1% to 40%-plus. And the pressure gets home more often creating negative plays that end drives and force turnovers.
Bowles doesn’t need a new playbook. He needs the players to run the one he already has.
and the plan for 2026
"The Bucs have added legitimate juice to their pass rush at not just one or two, but three levels. Kancey and outside linebacker David Walker are back from injury. Veteran outside linebacker Al-Quadin Muhammad is a sneaky two-deep addition. Rueben Bain Jr. should start opposite Diaby. They all help the pass rush on the front. But middle linebacker Josiah Trotter and nickelback Keionte Scott give Bowles more threats from a plethora of angles.
With Alex Anzalone and Scott giving the team better back-end coverage options through added depth and multiplicity, Bowles should trust the coverage more this year. He even spoke about using dime coverage more often in 2026.
to get back to Mayfield, this is Josh Q
Baker Mayfield: $50-52 million per year
Mayfield is the most important to the team. But a market-value extension would require an extra $10 million in cash. That would break the Glazers’ spending habits. I’m not saying they won’t do it this offseason. Just that I see it as more likely to be priority No. 1 for the 2027 offseason.
And the Bucs have the franchise tag in their back pockets. This year’s tag was less than $44 million, and the quarterback market has stalled over the last 24 months. Tampa Bay has legitimate control over Mayfield past this year as a security blanket that gives them ample time to get a deal done. The realistic path is to let 2026 play out and use the franchise tag as a safety net to get the long-term extension in place before he plays a single snap in 2027.