It will be interesting to see how the Bucs "improved-to-just-average defense" does vs these QBs:
Burrow, Murray, Love, Prescott, Rodgers (last hurrah), Williams, Goff, Herbert, Jackson, Stafford. Something like 9 of the top 15 NFL QBs.
From what I understand, the Bucs are not worried about QB's. They are all-in on improving upon their 5th ranked run defense in each of the last three seasons. It's top 4 or bust, baby. The bottom-6 pass defense the last three years? Just some communication issues.
Yeah they really want to be #1 in run defense for some reason. I think it is a gamble as they sacrifice too much in pass defense.
What's not mentioned here is the state of the rest of the division and how that impacts things. The oddsmakers are selling the rest of the division short IMO, specifically the Panthers and Saints. Nine wins isn't going to get it done this year IMO. This division will be on the rise, and the Bucs had better keep pace. I'm sure the oddsmakers do a lot of research, but in the end they fall back on how the last year ended up. They see the division sucked, and they expect it to suck again. I think it's looking up and I hope the Bucs aren't left in the dust.In other news the sky is predicted to be blue
yeah its not going out on a limb
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8.5 +105 -125 +160 Carolina Panthers 7.5 +110 -130 +310 New Orleans Saints 7.5 -120 +100 +265 Atlanta Falcons 6.5 -120 +100 +450
9 wins will be enough to win the division but it will come down to tiebreakers. The Bucs problem is they have to do better at home to have a better division record and also NFC record.
I'm sure the oddsmakers do a lot of research,
They absolutely don’t do a lot of research.
Here’s the research that is done on every damn line, college and pro
QB+Defense+coach - which team is better at these three things, where is the game being played. The end.
what do you have Bucs record at this year?
Contingent on health, they win 11+ games.
It will be interesting to see how the Bucs "improved-to-just-average defense" does vs these QBs:
Burrow, Murray, Love, Prescott, Rodgers (last hurrah), Williams, Goff, Herbert, Jackson, Stafford. Something like 9 of the top 15 NFL QBs.
From what I understand, the Bucs are not worried about QB's. They are all-in on improving upon their 5th ranked run defense in each of the last three seasons. It's top 4 or bust, baby. The bottom-6 pass defense the last three years? Just some communication issues.
Yeah they really want to be #1 in run defense for some reason. I think it is a gamble as they sacrifice too much in pass defense.
I dont know that its being the #1 run defense (not sure they have ever been that?) as much as it is playing physical, downhill football to make other teams one dimensional. Who is to say if it will work but it seems they think they have addressed their biggest flaw (short passing to TEs and RBs) with Anzalone and Scott and others and hope to have addressed their second biggest flaw, a lack of physicality, with guys like Bain and Scott and Trotter and others.
To me the weak spot is DB because they are counting heavily on McCollum locking down one outside spot and then they dont have much depth after Parrish and Morrison. So, they might end up being much more physical up front, better against the run and against the short passing game, but STILL get destroyed outside because McCollum is not performing, Morrison is injured etc. and the other guys they have are all really near the line of scrimmage safety/NB types
The stats can be misleading because the pass defense was so bad teams just threw the ball but also it was misleading as the Bucs defense were physically whipped during their losing streak in the trenches based on what was put on tape. The run defense was good but I do not think it was that good if you factor in that they couldn't stop anyone when necessary. Run or pass a defense has to make a stop here and there to slow down an opposing offense.
I just think they want to play more downhill and are not too worried about coverage on the boundary if the safeties rotate properly as Bowles send blitzes. The safeties not rotating properly to help out the boundary CBs or the ILB/OLB not dropping properly to help the boundary CBs with their zone markers was evident. Still it will come down the boundary CBs playing coverage properly like off coverage/quarters to make this work. M2M Morrison, Parrish and McCollum are uber athletic which is why I would prefer Bowles to play more m2m but he is worried about big plays due to safeties being out of position is my guess.
Looking at ourlads depth chart they have some interesting projections for where players will fit.
On offense they have Hurst as the primary LWR backup to Egbuka and Tez as the boundary WR backup to McMillan at RWR. K. Johnson is the primary backup in the slot with Godwin as the starter.
Ourlads is projecting Schrauth as the number 2 behind Bredeson at LG and with Klein as now the primary backup at center to Barton. Klein did play center a bit but maybe this is a hint that the team does not see him as a future guard given they drafted Schrauth and re-signed Feeney. Feeney is projected as the primary backup at RG. Hutmacher is the third on the depth chart now at LG, with Haggard as the third at RG and Ben Scott as the third/fourth at center.
They also listed Sharp ahead of Culp on the depth chart.
Defensively ourlads projects Bain Jr at LOLB with Nelson and Walker as the depth. Diaby starting at ROLB with Muhammed coming off the bench.
Rozeboom is listed as the primary backup to Anzalone as the Mo(ve) LB with Trotter projected to start ahead of Dennis at MIKE LB. Nick Jackson brings the rear while Bullock returns to battle Anzalone and Rozeboom at Mo LB.
No surprises with Killebrew as the primary backup at Strong safety to T. Smith. But ourlads projects K. Scott as the primary backup at FS to Winfield Jr but that will be determined as he may end up the starting NCB. JJ Roberts is also listed as a FS but I think he ends up the primary or secondary NCB when it is done.
Morrison and McCollum are projected as the starting CBs with Parrish at NCB but I doubt that is the final configuration.
Interesting thing to note is the Bucs have some lightweight boundary CBs now as depth with D. Williams 5 10 , 180 lbs and Ayden Garnes 5 11 183 lbs. Hayes is still around as a CB but the Bucs also only have 5 CBs listed on their roster if you count Hayes. Six if you count Parrish which seems very low to have before heading into training camp.
Licht really needs to pull through with the second wave of free agency and add more talent at CB, and OL.
It will be interesting to see how the Bucs "improved-to-just-average defense" does vs these QBs:
Burrow, Murray, Love, Prescott, Rodgers (last hurrah), Williams, Goff, Herbert, Jackson, Stafford. Something like 9 of the top 15 NFL QBs.
From what I understand, the Bucs are not worried about QB's. They are all-in on improving upon their 5th ranked run defense in each of the last three seasons. It's top 4 or bust, baby. The bottom-6 pass defense the last three years? Just some communication issues.
Yeah they really want to be #1 in run defense for some reason. I think it is a gamble as they sacrifice too much in pass defense.
I don’t really think the moves they made were to improve the run defense. That was just one of many foolish narratives the loon was pushing nonstop. I think they know their pass defense was the issue. I’m just not sure they evaluated the ILB prospects properly to fix the pass defense. Hell, they spent a top 5 pick on a linebacker that was pretty clueless in coverage.
There is quite a bit of evidence that they struggle evaluating the ILB. Hopefully Trotter bucks that trend.
The stats can be misleading because the pass defense was so bad teams just threw the ball
yes. When you look at season-long stats alone, not trying to run.on the Bucs D can look like cant run on the Bucs D, but no one who watched the 2020/2021 defenses and compared them to the 2025 defense would think tnhey are even close to being the same. This is why I posted previously the downhill stats like TFL and sacks and where they were coming from.
And for 2025 gross passing yards can make it look like teams threw only down the filed on the Bucs but the reality is many of those yeards are YAC from RBs and TEs and short passing to WRs. Again, White was not even that discplined but with his speed and young LVD the Bucs D of 2020/2021 gobbled up a lot of those throws under and into the flats.
So, I dont think its that the Bucs want to be the #1 run defense, I think its that they want to be the ones applying pressure (downhill), especially after Bowles had to pull back blitzing some last season. Part of that is doing some of the stuff that they think Trotter will do
Bowles to play more m2m but he is worried about big plays due to safeties being out of position is my guess.
Agree and he would have reason to think that. The Pats game is an easy example. Morrison with no help over the top because Tykee Smith is lost turns into a huge pass paly.
Six if you count Parrish which seems very low to have before heading into training camp.
Licht really needs to pull through with the second wave of free agency and add more talent at CB, and OL.
seem like it.
Bowles is a 9-8 or 8-9 guy. Nothing great. Nothing terrible.
Fuck me for not caring.
Bowles is a 9-8 or 8-9 guy. Nothing great. Nothing terrible.
Fuck me for not caring.
yeah to see the 13-4 Bucs of 2021 have a losing record the very next season was quite a sight to forget!
We had a top 5 offense in 2024, truly unbelievable, and we still only mustered up 10 wins
Best case scenario for this team next year which would be everything is clicking is 10 wins. A brutal schedule + todd bowles = likely another losing season, which by some chance, might still mean division winner!
Bowles is a 9-8 or 8-9 guy. Nothing great. Nothing terrible.
Fuck me for not caring.
yeah to see the 13-4 Bucs of 2021 have a losing record the very next season was quite a sight to forget!
We had a top 5 offense in 2024, truly unbelievable, and we still only mustered up 10 wins
Best case scenario for this team next year which would be everything is clicking is 10 wins. A brutal schedule + todd bowles = likely another losing season, which by some chance, might still mean division winner!
Yup. Mayfield Magic and 2026 rookies balling would give the ceiling on this team 10 wins. Anymore than that I am wiling to give credit to Bowles and his coaching staff.
This team's ceiling is 9 wins. I have said 6. All the talking heads writing sports articles know exactly dick about this team. I have always stated Bowles lost this team last year. Why does anyone think the outcome is going to be any different. This is who Todd Bowles is as a head coach and he's not capable of being any more than that. I will stand by my 6 until I see the product on the field, because to me, they didn't do anywhere near enough on the coaching side or the player side to get over the 8-9 win hump.
Bowles has shown if the players play it right can carry him to 10 wins max. Realistically we are looking at another 8 or 9 win team and frankly I think they are an 8-9 teams until I see these rookies in action. And how Mayfield responds in this offensive system. Bain and Scott could really alter the complexion of this defensive attitude as they were very soft last year but as it has been said by many others to make a play you need to win your 1 on 1. Bain and Scott can do that and if they do that as rookies that may be the home run needed with some Mayfield magic to carry this team to 9 or 10 wins and bail out Bowles/Licht for 2026.
Yeah it is a longshot miracle that Mayfield magic and 2026 defensive rookies can carry this team over their mediocre malaise. But that is the course Licht has chosen this off season along with the Glazers.
This team's ceiling is 9 wins. I have said 6. All the talking heads writing sports articles know exactly dick about this team. I have always stated Bowles lost this team last year. Why does anyone think the outcome is going to be any different. This is who Todd Bowles is as a head coach and he's not capable of being any more than that. I will stand by my 6 until I see the product on the field, because to me, they didn't do anywhere near enough on the coaching side or the player side to get over the 8-9 win hump.
The ceiling is 11 wins imo. We are def limited by Bowles but we are the most talented team in the division.
If Baker and the line stay healthy and we win 1 or 2 games we shouldn't, 11 wins is possible (however unlikely).