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Who is the Favorite to Win the NFC South in 2026?

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Avatar Of Olafsnowfake
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Posted by: @badabingbucs

and to be clear OlafSnowFake....this all started with a thread about extending Mayfield this offseason....where I said the Bucs aren't extending hm because of his performance over 11 games

edit for clarity . .  and responsibility :-)

 

Posted by: @badabingbucs

it now seems to have shifted too..."well of course we couldn't do that....how silly......cash and cap.....and bears on my!"

Or, some have said there might be other contributing factors

 


 
Posted : Jun. 4, 2026 4:13 pm
Avatar Of Olafsnowfake
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Posted by: @badabingbucs

I assume the Bucs by their actions, have hesitations about Baker Mayfield as the starting QB beyond this season

you know what they say about assumptions

 

Posted by: @badabingbucs

made Baker fumble the contract extension

another assumption

 

 

FWIW . .  and that is "not much" .. . .

I am only joking around with you because you keep posting your own core belief as truth that explains outside actions. YOU have "hesitations" about Baker so you interpret "no extension yet" as must be the Bucs have those same hesitations. Even funnier, you keep using extreme examples to bolster that belief. "If Baker had thrown 1,752 TD last season he would have been extended already" so the fact that he has not been extended yet means the Bucs "have hesitations" and "baker fumbled the contract extension"

 

plenty of other reasonable explanations 


 
Posted : Jun. 4, 2026 4:20 pm
Avatar Of Badabingbucs
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Posted by: @bucsbits

Posted by: @badabingbucs

and to be clear OlafSnowFake....this all started with a thread about extending Mayfield this offseason....where I said the Bucs aren't extending hm because of his performance over 11 games

edit for clarity . .  and responsibility :-)

 

Posted by: @badabingbucs

it now seems to have shifted too..."well of course we couldn't do that....how silly......cash and cap.....and bears on my!"

Or, some have said there might be other contributing factors

 

yeah his downward spiral contributed to him fumbling the contract extension.  i mean it was sad to see.

nobody enjoyed watching Nick Wrights Mahome's Mountain segment with Baker in the top 5 those first few weeks.  It was awesome to see....only for him to end outside the top 15.  tragedy 

 


 
Posted : Jun. 4, 2026 5:01 pm
Avatar Of Badabingbucs
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Posted by: @bucsbits

Posted by: @badabingbucs

I assume the Bucs by their actions, have hesitations about Baker Mayfield as the starting QB beyond this season

you know what they say about assumptions

 

Posted by: @badabingbucs

made Baker fumble the contract extension

another assumption

 

 

FWIW . .  and that is "not much" .. . .

I am only joking around with you because you keep posting your own core belief as truth that explains outside actions. YOU have "hesitations" about Baker so you interpret "no extension yet" as must be the Bucs have those same hesitations. Even funnier, you keep using extreme examples to bolster that belief. "If Baker had thrown 1,752 TD last season he would have been extended already" so the fact that he has not been extended yet means the Bucs "have hesitations" and "baker fumbled the contract extension"

 

plenty of other reasonable explanations 

well isn't a message board all speculation. A few clowns on here claim to have sources or former GMs or whatever...

but in reality we are all just posting our thoughts.  I come from a business background which is probably why i can more relate to their decision to see it out. 

 


 
Posted : Jun. 4, 2026 5:03 pm
Alldaway 2.0 reacted
Avatar Of Olafsnowfake
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Posted by: @badabingbucs

Posted by: @bucsbits

Posted by: @badabingbucs

I assume the Bucs by their actions, have hesitations about Baker Mayfield as the starting QB beyond this season

you know what they say about assumptions

 

Posted by: @badabingbucs

made Baker fumble the contract extension

another assumption

 

 

FWIW . .  and that is "not much" .. . .

I am only joking around with you because you keep posting your own core belief as truth that explains outside actions. YOU have "hesitations" about Baker so you interpret "no extension yet" as must be the Bucs have those same hesitations. Even funnier, you keep using extreme examples to bolster that belief. "If Baker had thrown 1,752 TD last season he would have been extended already" so the fact that he has not been extended yet means the Bucs "have hesitations" and "baker fumbled the contract extension"

 

plenty of other reasonable explanations 

well isn't a message board all speculation.

For sure

 

 

 


 
Posted : Jun. 4, 2026 5:58 pm
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Clearly it's summer, with the amount of flip flops I've seen on here the past few weeks. 

 


 
Posted : Jun. 4, 2026 8:39 pm
Evans Is My Daddy
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Posted by: @biggs3535

Posted by: @donkey_hunter

Posted by: @firebowles2026

Posted by: @evans-is-my-daddy

I think the whole division continues to be well behind the other divisions in the NFC as everyone indicates here. I do think some things differently than a lot of people do though. I think the division shakes out like this:

1. Atlanta
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. New Orleans

The reason I go with this is because I think Tampa's ceiling for wins with Bowles is still about 8 wins and I am thinking 6 this season (hope I am wrong). I think some people forget that Raheehaw had the Falcons at 4-0 the last quarter of the season last year and in the hunt for the South before he was shown the door (and I am no Raheehaw apologist). 2 of those 4 wins came against Tampa Bay and LA Rams. I think Carolina gets bitten by a tougher schedule and I was never sold on Canales. New Orleans is rebuilding/retooling but not that far behind as some might think. I also think there aren't that many games between 1st and last in the division. I think it will be within 2 games top to bottom. That is my prediction.

Falcons got worse over the offseason. They added a good coach.

Tua is going to get destroyed, he has no mobility.

No depth being Robinson.

Overpaid for an ok WR.

Defense will be swiss cheese.

Falcons 4th or 3rd in the division 

 

Agreed. 

I have it as TB and NOLA battling for the top spot. 

I'll agree with evans-is-my-daddy & disagree with both of you and say that Atlanta will finish above New Orleans. Obviously the QB spot is the question mark, but I think they are more talented overall. And their coaching staff is pretty damn good, from Stefanski to Ulbright to Callahan to Rees to Van Pelt to Toney. They have quite a bit of experience on their staff.

 

I think there is far too much "homerism" going on with this fan base. Atlanta is going to be better than anyone here is thinking.

 


 
Posted : Jun. 4, 2026 9:37 pm
Alldaway 2.0 reacted
Avatar Of Olafsnowfake
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Posted by: @evans-is-my-daddy

Posted by: @biggs3535

Posted by: @donkey_hunter

Posted by: @firebowles2026

Posted by: @evans-is-my-daddy

I think the whole division continues to be well behind the other divisions in the NFC as everyone indicates here. I do think some things differently than a lot of people do though. I think the division shakes out like this:

1. Atlanta
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. New Orleans

The reason I go with this is because I think Tampa's ceiling for wins with Bowles is still about 8 wins and I am thinking 6 this season (hope I am wrong). I think some people forget that Raheehaw had the Falcons at 4-0 the last quarter of the season last year and in the hunt for the South before he was shown the door (and I am no Raheehaw apologist). 2 of those 4 wins came against Tampa Bay and LA Rams. I think Carolina gets bitten by a tougher schedule and I was never sold on Canales. New Orleans is rebuilding/retooling but not that far behind as some might think. I also think there aren't that many games between 1st and last in the division. I think it will be within 2 games top to bottom. That is my prediction.

Falcons got worse over the offseason. They added a good coach.

Tua is going to get destroyed, he has no mobility.

No depth being Robinson.

Overpaid for an ok WR.

Defense will be swiss cheese.

Falcons 4th or 3rd in the division 

 

Agreed. 

I have it as TB and NOLA battling for the top spot. 

I'll agree with evans-is-my-daddy & disagree with both of you and say that Atlanta will finish above New Orleans. Obviously the QB spot is the question mark, but I think they are more talented overall. And their coaching staff is pretty damn good, from Stefanski to Ulbright to Callahan to Rees to Van Pelt to Toney. They have quite a bit of experience on their staff.

 

I think there is far too much "homerism" going on with this fan base. Atlanta is going to be better than anyone here is thinking.

 

 

would you attribute that belief to the new coach?

Above you mention that they finished hot.  Is that the primary thing? You think they were already on the upswing so they will keep it going?

 


 
Posted : Jun. 4, 2026 10:28 pm
Alldaway 2.0
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Posted by: @evans-is-my-daddy

Posted by: @biggs3535

Posted by: @donkey_hunter

Posted by: @firebowles2026

Posted by: @evans-is-my-daddy

I think the whole division continues to be well behind the other divisions in the NFC as everyone indicates here. I do think some things differently than a lot of people do though. I think the division shakes out like this:

1. Atlanta
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. New Orleans

The reason I go with this is because I think Tampa's ceiling for wins with Bowles is still about 8 wins and I am thinking 6 this season (hope I am wrong). I think some people forget that Raheehaw had the Falcons at 4-0 the last quarter of the season last year and in the hunt for the South before he was shown the door (and I am no Raheehaw apologist). 2 of those 4 wins came against Tampa Bay and LA Rams. I think Carolina gets bitten by a tougher schedule and I was never sold on Canales. New Orleans is rebuilding/retooling but not that far behind as some might think. I also think there aren't that many games between 1st and last in the division. I think it will be within 2 games top to bottom. That is my prediction.

Falcons got worse over the offseason. They added a good coach.

Tua is going to get destroyed, he has no mobility.

No depth being Robinson.

Overpaid for an ok WR.

Defense will be swiss cheese.

Falcons 4th or 3rd in the division 

 

Agreed. 

I have it as TB and NOLA battling for the top spot. 

I'll agree with evans-is-my-daddy & disagree with both of you and say that Atlanta will finish above New Orleans. Obviously the QB spot is the question mark, but I think they are more talented overall. And their coaching staff is pretty damn good, from Stefanski to Ulbright to Callahan to Rees to Van Pelt to Toney. They have quite a bit of experience on their staff.

 

I think there is far too much "homerism" going on with this fan base. Atlanta is going to be better than anyone here is thinking.

 

Atlanta may be better by default because of a better HC and OC.

But Atlanta has had a lot of talent the last few years, but they can't put it together as they finish with below average records.  I just think the Panthers leap frogged the Falcons and Bucs which is why this off season the Panthers are in the driver seat for the division.  For me it is obvious because they gave the best DC in the division Evero more defensive weapons like Lloyd, Phillips, Hunter, Wheatley, and Lee II.  Evero can have that Panthers defense playing Super Bowl caliber in a flash and that spells doom for the rest of the division and NFC if the Panther rise into tier 1 of teams.

For the Bucs their only edge with coaching is Danny Smith but that may not be enough.

 

 

 


This post was modified 2 months ago by Alldaway 2.0
 
Posted : Jun. 5, 2026 7:34 am
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Posted by: @evans-is-my-daddy

I think there is far too much "homerism" going on with this fan base. Atlanta is going to be better than anyone here is thinking.

There certainly are homers on here, but I don't think the guys saying NO will be better than ATL are being Tampa homers. They just think NO will be better than ATL. Nothing wrong with that. Hell, they may be right.


 
Posted : Jun. 5, 2026 8:41 am
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Avatar Of Badabingbucs
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with Atlanta, it's not so much their roster or unfortunate dedication to Penix but the schedule is a tough one.

 

the 3 games they get different than ours are v 49ERS,vs Kansas City, and @Commanders.  To me, the only winnable game for them there is the @Commanders game and that's more a toss up assuming Daniels is playing.  So 2 home games become losses.

Their road games, you ask - @Pitt, @Green Bay, @Minnesota, @Cleveland.  To me, that looks like at best case 2 losses and most likely 3.

You then have home games v Baltimore, v Chicago, v Detroit, V Bengals. Again, that could be 0-4, but best case looking like 2-2 and i'd suggest most likely 1-3.

so that's what 3-8 before you get to the division games.  To me 6-11 looking like best case for them.  Schedule just is brutal how it lines up


 
Posted : Jun. 5, 2026 8:50 am
Avatar Of Olafsnowfake
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ESPN’s Seth Walder

 

"Tampa Bay was given the 17th-best playoff odds, coming in at 47.3%, largely due to a 41.2% chance of winning the NFC South. Those numbers are a lot higher than the Falcons (33.7%, 27.4%), Saints (23.8%, 19.3%), and Panthers (15.8%, 12.2%). That drives home the expectation that the Bucs are not viewed as one of the NFL’s best teams, but rather the best team in the NFC South."

 

pretty fair, right?


 
Posted : Jun. 5, 2026 10:39 am
Avatar Of Badabingbucs
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Posted by: @bucsbits

ESPN’s Seth Walder

 

"Tampa Bay was given the 17th-best playoff odds, coming in at 47.3%, largely due to a 41.2% chance of winning the NFC South. Those numbers are a lot higher than the Falcons (33.7%, 27.4%), Saints (23.8%, 19.3%), and Panthers (15.8%, 12.2%). That drives home the expectation that the Bucs are not viewed as one of the NFL’s best teams, but rather the best team in the NFC South."

 

pretty fair, right?

yeah exactly.  One of the biggest upsets of the year last year might have have been the Bucs losing the NFC South.

I knew we were cooked, "it's a Buc Life", when all the pundits had us easily winning division and even some had us in Super bowl (Prisco, Wright)

in 2023 and 2024, most had other teams in the mix like Carolina or Atlanta; but almost all had us as the clear favorite last year

i am sure this year we will see some takes by analyst mentioning every NFC South team; i still expect us to be chosen alot but i dont think it will be as clear as entering 2025

i think this is a good thing because every time we have the media on our side (particular in the Baker/Bowles era); we trip over our dicks.  So yeah, glad to see we have the best odds as we should but at least we wont have the media humping our legs so we screw up

in terms of rest of league, yeah hard to take Bucs seriously.  I mean, 9-8, 10-7, and 8-9 in the last 3 years.....and just lost Mike Evans.  Doesn't exactly scream to me....Super Bowl threat. 

 

 


This post was modified 2 months ago by BadabingBucs
 
Posted : Jun. 5, 2026 10:50 am
Evans Is My Daddy
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Posts: 231
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Posted by: @bucsbits

Posted by: @evans-is-my-daddy

Posted by: @biggs3535

Posted by: @donkey_hunter

Posted by: @firebowles2026

Posted by: @evans-is-my-daddy

I think the whole division continues to be well behind the other divisions in the NFC as everyone indicates here. I do think some things differently than a lot of people do though. I think the division shakes out like this:

1. Atlanta
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. New Orleans

The reason I go with this is because I think Tampa's ceiling for wins with Bowles is still about 8 wins and I am thinking 6 this season (hope I am wrong). I think some people forget that Raheehaw had the Falcons at 4-0 the last quarter of the season last year and in the hunt for the South before he was shown the door (and I am no Raheehaw apologist). 2 of those 4 wins came against Tampa Bay and LA Rams. I think Carolina gets bitten by a tougher schedule and I was never sold on Canales. New Orleans is rebuilding/retooling but not that far behind as some might think. I also think there aren't that many games between 1st and last in the division. I think it will be within 2 games top to bottom. That is my prediction.

Falcons got worse over the offseason. They added a good coach.

Tua is going to get destroyed, he has no mobility.

No depth being Robinson.

Overpaid for an ok WR.

Defense will be swiss cheese.

Falcons 4th or 3rd in the division 

 

Agreed. 

I have it as TB and NOLA battling for the top spot. 

I'll agree with evans-is-my-daddy & disagree with both of you and say that Atlanta will finish above New Orleans. Obviously the QB spot is the question mark, but I think they are more talented overall. And their coaching staff is pretty damn good, from Stefanski to Ulbright to Callahan to Rees to Van Pelt to Toney. They have quite a bit of experience on their staff.

 

I think there is far too much "homerism" going on with this fan base. Atlanta is going to be better than anyone here is thinking.

 

 

would you attribute that belief to the new coach?

Above you mention that they finished hot.  Is that the primary thing? You think they were already on the upswing so they will keep it going?

 

I think they were on the upswing. I could be deadass wrong, but taking out both our Bucs and the playoff bound LA Rams in that 4-0 last quarter wasn't a fluke. I think the team has talent on it. It just comes down to if the new coach/regime can get it going. I just don't think they are as bad as people here are portraying. I think the entire NFC South is within 2 games of one another.....and not necessarily in a competitive way related to the rest of NFC.

 


 
Posted : Jun. 5, 2026 12:52 pm
Evans Is My Daddy
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Posts: 231
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Posted by: @alldaway

Posted by: @evans-is-my-daddy

Posted by: @biggs3535

Posted by: @donkey_hunter

Posted by: @firebowles2026

Posted by: @evans-is-my-daddy

I think the whole division continues to be well behind the other divisions in the NFC as everyone indicates here. I do think some things differently than a lot of people do though. I think the division shakes out like this:

1. Atlanta
2. Tampa Bay
3. Carolina
4. New Orleans

The reason I go with this is because I think Tampa's ceiling for wins with Bowles is still about 8 wins and I am thinking 6 this season (hope I am wrong). I think some people forget that Raheehaw had the Falcons at 4-0 the last quarter of the season last year and in the hunt for the South before he was shown the door (and I am no Raheehaw apologist). 2 of those 4 wins came against Tampa Bay and LA Rams. I think Carolina gets bitten by a tougher schedule and I was never sold on Canales. New Orleans is rebuilding/retooling but not that far behind as some might think. I also think there aren't that many games between 1st and last in the division. I think it will be within 2 games top to bottom. That is my prediction.

Falcons got worse over the offseason. They added a good coach.

Tua is going to get destroyed, he has no mobility.

No depth being Robinson.

Overpaid for an ok WR.

Defense will be swiss cheese.

Falcons 4th or 3rd in the division 

 

Agreed. 

I have it as TB and NOLA battling for the top spot. 

I'll agree with evans-is-my-daddy & disagree with both of you and say that Atlanta will finish above New Orleans. Obviously the QB spot is the question mark, but I think they are more talented overall. And their coaching staff is pretty damn good, from Stefanski to Ulbright to Callahan to Rees to Van Pelt to Toney. They have quite a bit of experience on their staff.

 

I think there is far too much "homerism" going on with this fan base. Atlanta is going to be better than anyone here is thinking.

 

Atlanta may be better by default because of a better HC and OC.

But Atlanta has had a lot of talent the last few years, but they can't put it together as they finish with below average records.  I just think the Panthers leap frogged the Falcons and Bucs which is why this off season the Panthers are in the driver seat for the division.  For me it is obvious because they gave the best DC in the division Evero more defensive weapons like Lloyd, Phillips, Hunter, Wheatley, and Lee II.  Evero can have that Panthers defense playing Super Bowl caliber in a flash and that spells doom for the rest of the division and NFC if the Panther rise into tier 1 of teams.

For the Bucs their only edge with coaching is Danny Smith but that may not be enough.

 

 

 

I get what you are saying, Alldaway, but applying that same kind of logic could also imply that Tampa Bay would be in the Super Bowl perennially and they aren't. I think every season is different. What happened last year or the year before that, or so on and so forth means absolutely nothing.

 


 
Posted : Jun. 5, 2026 12:54 pm
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