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Sitting on the clock in the first round, the Bucs decided to trade their pick moving back six spots with the Jacksonville Jaguars. The trade saw Tampa Bay acquire the first picks in Rounds two (33), four (106) and six (180) for 27. With plenty of talent still available and time for teams to reset their board, the 33rd pick could become a hot commodity for trade action. But history suggests otherwise, with just two trades down from 33 over the past 20 years. However, there are some talented quarterbacks and position players teams could feel compelled to move up for.
Let’s take a look at potential deals the Bucs could make if they’re inclined to move back again with teams trading up for a signal caller.
We will be using the Rich Hill Trade chart for this exercise.
The Dream Scenario:
Seahawks trade: 40 and 41 (295 points)
Bucs trade: 33 and 133 (199 points)
The Seahawks, who probably considered a quarterback at No. 9, could try to move up ahead of any quarterback-needy teams to select their guy. The Bucs would drop back seven spots, but gain an extra second in the process, allowing them to address more of their needs with quality players. The addition of No. 106 from the Jaguars in their earlier trade back lessens the blow of losing a late fourth rounder. While the Seahawks pay a premium price for the ability to get one of the top remaining quarterbacks on the board. A smaller package could include Seattle trading no. 40 and no. 72. or no. 40, no. 109, and no. 145 for no. 33.
Potential picks from the trade:
40: Houston DT Logan Hall
41: Colorado State TE Trey McBride
Small Move Back In The Second:
Houston trades: 37 and 80 (218 points)
Bucs trade: 33 (180 points)
Houston has already been wheeling and dealing this draft. Texans’ general manager Nick Caserio also stated they were looking at other deals to make as well. They’ve stated they are committed to Davis Mills, but with every quarterback not named Kenny Pickett available, they could change their tune. The Bucs would move back just four picks in this scenario, while gaining a mid-third round pick to continue to address needs in the beefy part of the draft. The price to pay to move up for a quarterback is always high, and with the Bucs holding the ticket, teams will have to pay up for it. A smaller package could include Houston trading no. 37, no. 107 and no. 162 for no. 33.
Potential Pick:
37: Houston DT Logan Hall
The Rare Divisional Trade:
Falcons trade: 43 and 58 (231 points)
Bucs trade: 33 (180 points)
If you are trading within the division to give the Falcons a potential franchise quarterback, you’re going to make them pay for it. There’s no doubt Atlanta needs to add a young QB prospect in this draft to develop behind Marcus Mariota, but at 43 they might be left with an empty cupboard. You got to pay to play, and the Bucs should charge a lot for this pick. It’s a steep move down for Tampa Bay sliding back 10 spots, but adding a third second round pick to their arsenal could help them fill several needs. There is no smaller package for the dirty birds. Pay up!
Potential picks:
43: Colorado State TE Trey McBride
58: Oklahoma DT Perrion Winfrey
Of course, these are some of the best-case scenarios for the Bucs. As aforementioned, there have been just two trades involving pick 33 in the last 20 years. Those weren’t exactly “need moves” either. However, there has never been a draft like this one, especially with multiple quarterbacks available at 33 that many considered potential first round picks.
In 2015 the Titans traded pick no. 33 to the Giants for pick no.40, no. 108, and no. 245. And in 2007 the Raiders traded pick no. 33 to the Cardinals for pick no. 38 and no. 105. Neither trade was for a quarterback. However, with some big names still on the board such as CB Andrew Booth Jr., LB Nakobe Dean and RB Breece Hall, teams could be tempted to move up the board. With that in mind, let’s look at a few deals that might fetch the Bucs less trade value than a move up for a quarterback could.
Dropping Back Five Picks:
Jets Trade: 38 and 101 (193 points)
Bucs Trade: 33 (180 points)
The Jets did a phenomenal job manipulating the draft board day one, but could they be inclined to move up yet again? With needs at safety and linebacker still, could they consider leap-frogging the teams ahead of them. The Jets are loaded with two fourth round picks at no. 111 and no. 117. So moving no. 101 in a deal isn’t as tough a pill to swallow. The Bucs would, however, have two third round picks at their disposal and plenty of ammunition to move around the board.
Potential pick:
38: Houston DT Logan Hall
Slide Back To The Early 40’s
Colts trade: 42, 73, and 159 (217)
Bucs Trade: 33 and 133(199)
Colts’ owner Jim Irsay has been teasing a potential move on Twitter. Indianapolis didn’t have a first round pick after the Carson Wentz trade, and they could be impatient to pick. Especially with top talent on the board unlikely to fall to them at no. 42. Players such as receiver Christian Watson or tackle Bernhard Raimann could be of interest to them. As could be drafting the heir apparent to Matt Ryan.
The Bucs could miss out on a few players a top of their board and might not want to move back this far. But swapping their fourth rounder for a top 10 pick in the third round allows them to add higher end talent in a deep draft through the middle rounds. Tampa Bay gains a fifth rounder as well, giving them a pick in every round. If this move up is for a quarterback, the Bucs might not send pick no. 133 back in return.
Potential pick:
41: Colorado State TE Trey McBride
The Bucs could decide to just stay put at no. 33 and select the best player on their board. Which, if you haven’t guessed by now we believe to be Logan Hall. They acquired extra picks in the mid-rounds, which is something Licht wanted to do. He could also look to acquire future picks in any trade back scenario.
However, even without a dynamic history of movement at the no. 33 spot, it could hold more value in this draft than years prior. And Licht is a mastermind when it comes to getting value for picks and players. Tampa Bay is on the clock.