FAB 2. IS LICHT GOING THE SAFE ROUTE IN THIS YEAR’S DRAFT?
One of my jobs as a reporter and a Bucs beat writer is to pick up verbal and non-verbal clues from the subjects I cover – Bucs players, coaches and the team’s general manager. I went in-depth with my reaction to Gerald McCoy’s soul-baring press conference on Monday in the latest PewterNation Podcast, which you can access by clicking here.

But I in this week’s SR’s Fab 5 I wanted to share my thoughts and react to what Tampa Bay G.M. Jason Licht had to say because I think he laid out some important clues to what his draft approach will be this year. Before I get to what the two buzz words I caught Licht saying over and over, here is what he had to say about his approach to selecting players as he enters his fourth draft in Tampa Bay.

Bucs GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Scott Reynolds/PR

“I would say it’s continually evolving for me and for a lot of other people,” Licht said. “I think every year, you can get better and better at judging a player, talking to him and spending time with him. You can have him in for a visit. You get a little bit out of it, you feel good about him or you feel bad about him when he leaves. But, it basically comes down to all the work that our scouts, myself, our directors, John [Spytek] and Mike [Biehl] do throughout the fall talking to all the other people around the player in the program, his hometown, things like that.  A player can put on a façade in an interview, a person interviewing for any job can, but you get the right people asking the right questions. I think we tailor our questions a little bit more every year. I think we feel better and better every year.”

So Licht admits his evaluating process evolves. That’s natural and expected over time. But what does that mean with regards to this year’s draft?

Well, the two words Licht said multiple times were “safe” and “clean.” Here are some of his quotes in which those terms were mentioned.

On the type of player you can get with the 19th pick in the NFL Draft:
“A lot of times when you’re picking later in the first round, you’re getting sometimes a safe player that may not have the flash, but ends up being a very solid player. So, it’s a little trickier picking at 19 with all the scenarios that happen in front of you. We can’t pinpoint who’s going to be there yet because crazy things happen, but we’re excited about where we’re picking. No matter where you’re picking, you wish you could figure out who’s going to be there and you wish that you were a little bit higher at that point. At the end of the season you don’t wish you were higher, but it’s just so you can minimize or predict a little bit more of who you’re picking from. Wherever we’re picking, we think we’re getting a solid player.”

On the unique characteristics of players available in this year’s draft:
“Well, there’s a lot of players that check all the boxes in terms of being a productive football player, being a good teammate, having the height/weight/speed, check all the boxes that we say are safe from a character standpoint as well as their ability on the field. Those players kind of transcend across all positions. It’s deeper in some positions more than others, like all drafts, but there’s quite a few clean players in this year’s draft”

On what a player would have to prove in the first round to convince him to move up from the 19th pick:
“You’d have to feel very confident that he’s going to come in and make an immediate impact. You’d have to feel – no player is safe in this draft. All players, it doesn’t matter who it is, how clean they are, they all come with a risk, but you want to be as risk free as you can possibly get in order to mortgage your future and give up those assets; your draft picks. It also depends on whose there and how high you have them on your board to justify moving up. So, if you had him slotted around the 19 pick and you’re picking 19, you probably don’t want to move up, but if you had him slotted a lot higher, you’d be tempted to do that.”

Since Licht has been on the job I don’t think I’ve heard the words “safe” and “clean” come out of his mouth before. That got my antenna up immediately.

This is the “no risk-it, no biscuit” guy, right?

Bucs QB Jameis Winston and GM Jason Licht – Photo by: Bucs

The guy who did the homework on the controversial Tyrann Mathieu in Arizona and helped convince the Cardinals to pick the future Pro Bowler, right?

The guy who took the controversial, talented quarterback in Jameis Winston instead of the safe, talented quarterback in Marcus Mariota with the first overall pick, right?

The guy who traded up in the second round to draft Roberto Aguayo – a kicker! – in the second round, right?

Where the heck did Mr. Risk go?

Aside from gambling a bit on Winston with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2015 NFL Draft, the selections of wide receiver Mike Evans with the seventh overall pick in 2014 and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves at No. 11 last year were pretty safe picks. Both were clean character guys. Where Licht has gambled – aside from Winston to a degree, which has turned out not to be a gamble at all – has been in the second round.

That’s where he took a chance on tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins in 2014 and on Aguayo last year. ASJ was a turd that was cut prior to Week 3 last year after getting a DUI. Aguayo, who was the league’s worst kicker last year, will have to have the training camp of his life and beat out newly signed veteran Nick Folk to see Year 2 in Tampa Bay.

If Aguayo goes the way of ASJ, that’s two players in the top 60 that the Bucs will have drafted in the last four years that aren’t on the team anymore. Licht knows that and with the Bucs literally being a few players away from being a perennial playoff team, and perhaps he’s at the point where he can’t take any more early risks.

Perhaps Licht senses the need to take some safe, clean players on the first two days of the draft and use Day 3 for some gambles?

If the Bucs indeed go the safe route in the first round I think it’s down to five players that might be available at No. 19. The first four are defensive players and their names might surprise you – unless you read my SR’s Fab 5 from two weeks ago. There’s a safe bet that one of these players could appear atop our final PewterReport.com’s 2017 Bucs’ 7-Round Mock Draft, which will come out on Monday.

Washington SS Budda Baker
Baker is a bit undersized, but is a willing hitter and a playmaker in the passing game with 18 pass breakups and five interceptions in three years. Former Bucs defensive backs coach Jimmy Lake, who is the Huskies secondary coach, told me that Baker is a faster, slightly bigger Ronde Barber. He’s the second-fastest player at Washington behind John Ross and you have to kick him out of the film room. Baker has a great mix of athleticism, football I.Q. and instincts. He can play strong safety, free safety or nickel cornerback and offers tremendous position flexibility. Baker would be a contender to start at one of the safety spots or the nickel cornerback role in Tampa Bay as a rookie.

USC CB-KR Adoree Jackson – Photo by: Getty Images

USC CB Adoreé Jackson
Jackson is a developing cornerback that was an all-around performer at USC. He had five interceptions and 11 pass breakups last year while covering some of the best receivers in the country like Washington’s John Ross and Penn State’s Chris Godwin. Jackson has also moonlighted on offense where he caught 39 passes for 628 yards (16.1 avg.) and six touchdowns in his three years as a Trojan, but it is his return ability that makes him special. The athletic Jackson has returned four kickoffs and four punts for touchdowns with his track star speed in his USC career. Because he was on the USC track team, Jackson, who had a pre-draft visit with Tampa Bay, has never participated in spring football and is just scratching the surface on how good he can become. With Brent Grimes’ contract up after this year and the Bucs playing in a division with Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Cam Newton, Tampa Bay needs more talented cornerbacks.

Kansas State DE Jordan Willis
The Bucs had assistant defensive line coach Paul Spicer work Willis out at his pro day and then brought him in for a pre-draft visit. There is a lot of interest in the reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, who recorded 25.5 career sacks, including a conference-leading 11.5 QB captures last year, which tied a K-State single-season record. Willis, who was the Senior Bowl Outstanding Defensive Player, had a dominant showing at the NFL Scouting Combine where he was the top defensive end in several drills, including the 40-yard dash with a 4.53 time. Willis, who has been compared to Michael Strahan, has an unmatched work ethic and is far from being a finished product. He’s played a majority of the snaps at left defensive end, but can also play on the right side, too. Willis could start as a designated pass rusher on third downs in place of Will Gholston at left end.

Missouri DE Charles Harris
There hasn’t been much publicity about Tampa Bay’s interest in Harris, a junior entry who recorded 18 sacks and forced five fumbles at Missouri. Harris had nine sacks this year despite struggling in a new defensive scheme after posting seven sacks in a breakthrough sophomore campaign. Harris didn’t test as well as Willis did, but he’s a damn good football player and worthy of a late-first-round pick. At 6-foot-3, 253 pounds, he’s similarly built to Tampa Bay’s Noah Spence and has a knack for getting to the quarterback. Harris is the latest in a great line of Missouri defensive linemen that include Jacquies Smith, Michael Sam, Markus Golden and Shane Ray. With Robert Ayers possibly entering his final year in Tampa Bay the Bucs need to get younger along the defensive line and find his successor.

Miami TE David Njoku
I wouldn’t be surprised if Njoku is the only offensive player that could be around at No. 19 that the Bucs would give consideration to. Njoku, who is one of the youngest draft prospects at age 20, was at One Buc Place for a pre-draft visit. He’s an incredible athlete with an 11-1 broad jump, a 37.5-inch vertical leap and a 4.64 time in the 40-yard dash. Njoku showed off his athleticism with eight catches of 40 yards or more and four catches that topped 50 yards for the Hurricanes as one of the most explosive tight ends in the nation. Njoku had 43 catches for 698 yards (16.2 avg.) with eight touchdowns last year, and 21 receptions for 362 yards (17.2 avg.) and one score as a sophomore. The Bucs want to get back to a two-tight end set and are looking for a pass-catching tight end to pair with Cameron Brate.

Oklahoma RBs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine – Photo by: Getty Images

Those are five pretty safe picks from a work ethic, character and production standpoint. All five should be available when Tampa Bay is on the clock at No. 19.

Licht’s comments – if taken at face value – also mean that the Bucs might pass on two talented running backs with some character concerns. While Oklahoma running back Joe Mixon may or may not be off Tampa Bay’s draft board, I don’t see the Bucs even considering drafting him until the third round at the earliest – and he’ll be drafted by some other team by then.

While I think some team will take a chance on Florida State running back Dalvin Cook before Tampa Bay is on the clock, I am also inclined to believe the Bucs would pass on him at No. 19 if Cook slid down the first round. They seem to like so many running backs that carry second- or third-round grades, such as Toledo’s Kareem Hunt, USF’s Marlon Mack, Texas’ D’Onta Foreman and Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine.

There have been rumors about Cook hanging around the wrong crowd for a while, and I’m sure Licht has gotten to the bottom of it through the Bucs’ pre-draft research and the face-to-face he had with Cook at One Buc Place on a recent visit. I could be wrong, but my instincts say a clean, safe defensive player in the first round and possibly second round for Tampa Bay, and then a clean, safe running back in the second or third round.

I can’t wait until Thursday night. Make sure you stay tuned to PewterReport.com for some exciting draft coverage this year.