If Licht had gone Bain, Hill, Pregnon, & Scott as I would have preferred, he would have had 4 out of the top 29/100 of Matt Miller's best values in the draft.
But alas...
To be fair to Licht, he did have 3 out with the top 44/100 when you factor in Hurst. Still pretty good. But it could have been so much better.
For those wondering, Trotter is nowhere on the list.
I thought Hurst was a consensus 4th round grade?
Miller's list is based on off of his personal board, not the consensus.
Is Matt Miller someone you tend to trust or agree with?
Is Matt Miller someone you tend to trust or agree with?
I would say he's no better or worse than any of the pundits. Like anybody else, he gets stuff wrong.
Bain, Hill, Pregnon, & Scott
so a better draft in terms of value? I can see that. But that's also where the discussion turns almost academic. I doubt any team in the NFL drafts solely on value relative to something like the CBB or Matt Miller. All are factoring in need and their own evaluation.
I think Coen (Jags) had the worst value draft in the NFL. Probably still does okay. 49ers too. Two great coaches both teams with GM supporting the HC etc
I think Coen (Jags) had the worst value draft in the NFL.
Coen needs to lose Gladstone like a bad shirt.
Bain, Hill, Pregnon, & Scott
so a better draft in terms of value?
Better draft in terms of BPA, also intersecting need, value, etc.
I can even see that too.
But isn't that where an evaluation of Licht has to consider Bowles? Licht's job is to help Bowles win football games now, not get good draft grades. So, some of the choices should reflect that and certainly be more "immediate need" than "value" because Bowles' job is on the line (some say Licht too). So, you get Trotter v Hill because Bowles believes Trotter is more helpful in HIS defense. Or a later round G because they want an immediate EZ receiving threat. The Bucs took Hurst over Pregnon, I think?
Important to understand I am not saying that is GOOD or RIGHT, just that it may be REAL. And if it is then the metric used to assess Licht ("value") might not fit because value wasn't the mission.
Licht's job is to help Bowles win football games now, not get good draft grades. So, some of the choices should reflect that and certainly be more "immediate need" than "value" because Bowles' job is on the line (some say Licht too).
The picks that @biggs3535 listed earlier were not only BPA's, but they also addressed the "immediate needs" that you keep referring to (EDGE, ILB, IOL, etc.)
It has nothing to do with "value", it has to do with making this team BETTER.
It's bad player evals.
So, you get Trotter v Hill because Bowles believes Trotter is more helpful in HIS defense.
This is a perfect example.
Hill is just as good of a run defender, if not better. He's a more productive pass rusher. He's more of splash play producer than Trotter, and has been far more productive. And, he's nowhere near the liability in coverage that Trotter is.
Golday is another example. CJ Allen could possibly be as well.
The only real advantage Trotter had over the others was the family ties.
Or a later round G because they want an immediate EZ receiving threat. The Bucs took Hurst over Pregnon,
Forgot this one.
First, I wouldn't consider a 3rd rounder a "later round" pick. It's closer to premium than later.
Pregnon falling into the 3rd was a big surprise.
So, there again, you get BPA that also addresses a need.
Bredenson is not a starter. Upgrading there elevates this O-Line to another level.
I like Hurst, don't get me wrong. But, he wasn't BPA and he certainly wasn't a need.
Hill is just as good of a run defender, if not better.
I thought the Bucs were taking Hill.
But, in hindsight, one can at least see the thought on Trotter as the more Bowles-specific pick.
You can say the same thing about Scott. I thought the Bucs would take a true outside corner, especially because they have Parrish, but instead they went Bowles-specific.
"Obviously Keionte Scott, we thought he would be gone as well," said Bowles. "Love the way that he plays and the energy and the passion he plays with. He is a heck of a blitzer and he is a cover guy. He can tackle and he is not afraid of anything so I am very excited to have him and get him worked in. He can do a lot of things for us and he plays anywhere from nickel to corner to safety to linebacker so he will be a great piece to have moving forward."
Bowles has always be enamored with versatile guys and if Bowles was soul searching in the offseason one logical conclusion he might reach is that the defense has lost its tough, downhill, blitzing nature.
We drafted Bain, Trotter, Scott.
The Bucs draft has much more of a "need" tilt to it than "value." Arguably, the "value" component comes mostly from 2 guys dropping to them (Bain and Scott)in areas of need. Otherwise their draft is like a checklist of "glory days" needs filled . .. edge, White replacement, Evans-esque receiver . . .
Like 2026 is an all-in, do or die year.
But, in hindsight, one can at least see the thought on Trotter as the more Bowles-specific pick.
Why?
Because of the family ties?
Hill can do everything Trotter can, just as well, and more (coverage, splash plays, etc.).
But, in hindsight, one can at least see the thought on Trotter as the more Bowles-specific pick.
Why?
Because of the family ties?
Hill can do everything Trotter can, just as well, and more (coverage, splash plays, etc.).
I was thinking more of the potential parallel with White, in Bowles' mind.
I think your general takes are "Bowles incompetent" and "White bad" and you state here Hill better than Trotter. Those may all be correct, but even if you are correct doesn't that mean, if we go with your own framing of an "incompetent" HC/DC and add that he clearly liked White and likely believes he got good use out of White's downhill aggression while winning a Super Bowl that same "incompetent" HC/DC might overlook the negative coverage comparison between Trotter and Hill you are raising, see them as a wash on run defense (at best), but still see Trotter as more like White than Hill etc.?
Thats why I said early on the Trotter pick seems a Bowles pick more than a Licht pick and if it is its sort of hard to hold Licht negatively accountable for doing his job (ie trying to give the coach what the coach THINKS he needs to succeed in 2026).
Bain, Trotter, and Scott, unlock this defense. No need to read too much in to anything else.
FWIW, Auman has a pretty interesting thread on Trotter from his interview with Trotters Mizzou LB coach
https://x.com/gregauman/status/2048854717485203662?s=20
My White comparison is a total guess so could definitely be off but again FWIW this part of that interview:
"Nicholson said Trotter only had two sacks but they didn't blitz him much: "He has that skillset. He is a dynamic pass rusher at the linebacker position. Not a good one. Dynamic. People don't realize he has that ability. When we involved him as a fourth rusher, you couldn't block him"
Bain, Trotter, and Scott, unlock this defense. No need to read too much in to anything else.
From Auman's interview (link just posted) with Trotter's LB coach
"Nicholson on Bucs adding physicality: "I was in the house, and as soon as I got the word the Bucs had drafted Josiah, I told my wife, 'Woo, nobody's going to run on them.' You talk about a formidable front that excels in making teams one-dimensional and stopping the run."
For better or worse . . . "nobody's going to run on them" is Bowles core defensive starting point